The Weather Outlook

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Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 17:46:10

Frontal remnants always bring the chance of more cloud, e.g. Wednesday:

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

been a while since I took part on this part of the forum where can you access these charts?

youtube page:My You tube page 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 17:49:57
GETS frustratingly slow coming out. Need to turn the Frank a bit harder. At 3 August no sign of op yet being a cool outlier.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Arcus
23 July 2018 17:50:24

 

been a while since I took part on this part of the forum where can you access these charts?

Originally Posted by: Jake 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 18:12:45
Much messier widely spread ENS this evening, on both GFS and GEM. This sometimes happens when the weather is deciding whether to change its mind about the future. Watch this space.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Arcus
23 July 2018 18:16:34

By golly ECM's Friday looks ... interesting... Big storms for some if it comes to fruition:

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Brian Gaze
23 July 2018 18:26:14

ECM 12z showing the sort of thing for this Friday that GFS was going for late last week. I'd have thought 36C may be possible with this.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 18:37:33
ECM raw output suggests max of 33C in E Anglia. So certainly 34 or 35 possible:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/c5defaf8681fe37cf1796186a2884a08/max-temperature-6h/20180727-1800z.html 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
23 July 2018 18:39:39

Looking forward to it Brian then a relief at the weekend.

Rob K
23 July 2018 18:44:58

Much messier widely spread ENS this evening, on both GFS and GEM. This sometimes happens when the weather is deciding whether to change its mind about the future. Watch this space.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Hmm yes after the tighter clustering on 6Z the GEFS has collapsed a bit on the 12Z. Lots of disappointing runs there, hopefully just a blip rather than signs of a change into August. We’ve had these wobbles before and come through them. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

xioni2
23 July 2018 18:53:54

Much messier widely spread ENS this evening, on both GFS and GEM. This sometimes happens when the weather is deciding whether to change its mind about the future. Watch this space.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I know it's the model thread, but I think you might be paying a bit too much attention on the fickle models and esp GFS.

IMO next week is unlikely to be extremely hot and Aug is likely to be antiycyclonic, dry and very warm. 

 

White Meadows
23 July 2018 18:53:58
Evening folks.

No temperature records looking like being broken on tonight’s output.

Ally Pally Snowman
23 July 2018 18:57:11

Evening folks.
No temperature records looking like being broken on tonight’s output.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

 

 

ECM getting there by day 10 very hot. Hot run all the way 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
23 July 2018 18:58:37

Evening folks.
No temperature records looking like being broken on tonight’s output.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

No we seem to be moving away from extreme heat and towards prolonged anticyclonic conditions, which is fine by me. 

 

Having said that ECM is pretty flippin' hot. After Friday's mid-30s there's a brief cooler interlude and then a reload from the south.

 

Definitely got an eye on the weather regarding my mountain bike race on the 5th (26 miles and 5,600ft of ascent). Cooler would be better for that day at least!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
23 July 2018 19:17:15

Indeed Arcus difficult to say how much sun we will see on that chart it says maybe Moderate Storms needs watching.

 

 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/c5defaf8681fe37cf1796186a2884a08/significant-weather/20180727-1800z.html

 

By golly ECM's Friday looks ... interesting... Big storms for some if it comes to fruition:

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 19:20:04

I know it's the model thread, but I think you might be paying a bit too much attention on the fickle models and esp GFS.

IMO next week is unlikely to be extremely hot and Aug is likely to be antiycyclonic, dry and very warm. 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I enjoy it - the fickleness adds spice.

But actually I just thought about the ENS spread again, a bit more scientifically. What’s actually happened is the mean goes up and down more. So this implies the opposite of what might seem intuitive: the wavier the nean, the more the model has nailed the day on day fluctuations consistently between perturbations. A flat mean line means lots of different fluctuations on different runs averaging out.

So rather than changing its mind, the GFS ENS has actually made up its mind.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
23 July 2018 19:28:58

 

So rather than changing its mind, the GFS ENS has actually made up its mind.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Not really - the spread on the 12Z ensemble is quite a lot wider than on the 06Z ensemble, in the 10-16 day range.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
23 July 2018 19:30:43

 

I enjoy it - the fickleness adds spice.

But actually I just thought about the ENS spread again, a bit more scientifically. What’s actually happened is the mean goes up and down more. So this implies the opposite of what might seem intuitive: the wavier the nean, the more the model has nailed the day on day fluctuations consistently between perturbations. A flat mean line means lots of different fluctuations on different runs averaging out.

So rather than changing its mind, the GFS ENS has actually made up its mind.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Not sure there’s any logic to that whatsoever.

White Meadows
23 July 2018 19:31:52

 

No we seem to be moving away from extreme heat and towards prolonged anticyclonic conditions, which is fine by me. 

 

Having said that ECM is pretty flippin' hot. After Friday's mid-30s there's a brief cooler interlude and then a reload from the south.

 

Definitely got an eye on the weather regarding my mountain bike race on the 5th (26 miles and 5,600ft of ascent). Cooler would be better for that day at least!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

good luck in the race from a fellow MTB’r!!

anything above 25 degrees = no thanks 

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 19:35:10

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

Ta muchly

youtube page:My You tube page 
Polar Low
23 July 2018 19:39:04

Hello Rob yes its the biggest spread we have had for London for a while 

But look at that T mean for Thursday and Friday this week

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

 

 

 

 

Not really - the spread on the 12Z ensemble is quite a lot wider than on the 06Z ensemble, in the 10-16 day range.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

golfingmad
23 July 2018 20:13:24

 

I enjoy it - the fickleness adds spice.

But actually I just thought about the ENS spread again, a bit more scientifically. What’s actually happened is the mean goes up and down more. So this implies the opposite of what might seem intuitive: the wavier the nean, the more the model has nailed the day on day fluctuations consistently between perturbations. A flat mean line means lots of different fluctuations on different runs averaging out.

So rather than changing its mind, the GFS ENS has actually made up its mind.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I've read that several times and have concluded I need another beer

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
superteacher
23 July 2018 20:22:33

 

I've read that several times and have concluded I need another beer

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Maybe a pint of whatever Tim’s drinking! 😂😂

golfingmad
23 July 2018 20:31:35

 

Maybe a pint of whatever Tim’s drinking! 😂😂

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 20:35:12

 

I've read that several times and have concluded I need another beer

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Let me try again...

In any single run there are big variations from day to day - ups and downs. If each perturbation ends up with a completely different evolution from the others in the timing of ridges and troughs, then the mean of all perturbations will be fairly flat (even if generally it might be lower or higher than the seasonal norm).

If on the other hand most of the perturbations end up with, say, a rising trend in week one, then a dip, then another rise in week 2, then the mean line will also vary up and down and be less flat.

This evening’s ENS mean line wiggles a lot. That means that most, albeit not all, perts are following the same general pattern over the 15 days rather than averaging each other out. Earlier this week we had a lot of very flat ensemble means which give the impression of stable weather when in fact they hide huge variability.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
23 July 2018 21:28:15

Hello Rob yes its the biggest spread we have had for London for a while 

But look at that T mean for Thursday and Friday this week

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yes impressive but several degrees lower this side of the Channel on GFS. (Those are the De Bilt ensembles)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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