yep all looks good for intense heat for end of next week but like MR BRIAN said things like this happen at winter where its all looks good a week or so away you see upgrades then you get shot in the foot nearer the time with a down grade, or grades. hoping for cooler wetter weather A.S.A.P   you summer lovers have been spoilt so far.....

If previous weeks are to go by that low will hopefully get shunted North

As often is said “we often end up with the half way house solution”

Oh triffic. More rain.

ECM not looking too exciting this evening. The chances of serious hot weather (by which I mean 34C+) look to be diminishing now, but of course there is still a chance. It's looking like quite a decent run of 30-32C maxima this week, I'm just hoping it will hang on until Saturday, as we are going to an open-air cinema event on Friday night and don't really want a downpour. Soupy humid warmth will do nicely though!

Indeed Arcus, this was also explained nicely late last night on N24 this has a while to run all models are really struggling with the jet buckle.

I think that at the moment, all model solutions for next Friday going forward should be taken with rather a large dose of salt. There seem to be changes from one run to the next for much of the time just now, even among the more reliable models.

Yes Tim even with a little wobble maybe Saturday maybe >34c

We will have to wait and see normally we would be well pleased with those

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Like what Tim said it give 4 downgrade and 4 upgrades so perhaps tomorrow to see the upgrade side.  If the cooler air in the west by Friday evening then we already got 33-35C done in the afternoon.  Saturday always expected to be cooler before rising back up again.

It’s hardly a trend yet. If it continues for until tomorrow’s 12z runs then yes. UKMO was OK. And the ICON (not that I rate it) actually backed the low west slightly. It won’t be nailed until Monday.

Well it looked that way a few days ago before corrections westward. I expect we'll continue to see east/west movements. Besides there's not much of a jet powering that secondary low for the weekend so it hasn't made much eastward progress even by late Sunday, meaning much of us are still basking in mid to high 20s and perhaps a 30C in the SE. I appreciate the prospect of 35C is looking less likely after today's output, though. 

Still very warm/ hot for many through next week.

Maybe it's just me, but from my experience over time, GFS is a prime offender when it comes to overcooking LP systems from the atlantic.

But, the principle stands: models will tend to vary in a random walk forced by a general trend / preference. So you get patterns of downgrades then upgrades. The background trend - persistence - is for things to settle down and for the Azores high to ridge. So random walk plus a bit of bias.

Wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow’s runs back off the extreme heat a bit but prolong the ridging.

Up to 252hrs 18z is steady as she goes one. And continues to give crap to the NW and niceness to the SE. Which is rubbish for the CET.

EDIT: then goes all 1995 in deep FI.

Just pause a moment and take that in. And I don’t suppose the op is an outlier either.

That 15 days of 30C plus and my record for number of +30C days per year was 21 times in 2006.  Now i am on 14th time to see 30C and this run would give me up to 29 times and perhaps to hit 30 times so that a big rise on my data.

Are they raw temps Tim?

EDIT: GFS 18z mean has LP further west than the op. It’s  been a common theme recently.

Those are pretty remarkable. The 00z is nowhere near those levels, of course, but the general theme remains very good. It will just be a shame if we miss out on a proper hot spell when all the building blocks are there. 

Raw output in this area has moderated from low 30s to high 20s over the coming week, and it is also looking disappointingly cloudy much of the time.