Not wise to micro analyse one run and state thats the one thats going to happen .....

Its a finely balanced situation id wait a couple of days before writing anything off.

Agreed and no change as it still will reach 30-35C in the next 2 weeks and Monday if no clouds around I would scrape to get 34C and if we get lot of sunny days then every day it will revised upward otherwise if clouds around will stay put at 30-32C all this week and next weekend.  It seem the they are gearing up for a hot August and our moving day on 3rd August look to be the hottest day at the moment.  

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Scatter appears a lot earlier on the 0z Ensembles with it looking a good deal cooler (comparatively speaking) and more unsettled in the short-mid range.
But clustering remains pretty solid for a major heatwave into FI. This has been evident on a number of recent runs.

I feel the hottest part of this wonderful summer will be from around 3rd to 10th August with 100F distinctly possible.

Take 10 off those for most of us north of Leeds 👍

No. All the models are building the upper High too far North and East, therefore allowing the Atlantic to encroach that bit more at mid-latitide. 

Too early to say. It’s more to do with that secondary LP that hasn’t even formed yet. It looks like it’s being totally overblown.

Still very difficult to make a call for the weather for the week after next anything from cool washout to record breaking heat.  There does look to be quite a difference between the NW and the SE though.  ECM Op is probably best case scenario for most.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0

06z deflects the low north. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=1&carte=1

Astonishing levels of heat across much of the Northern Hemisphere

Is this just an anomaly or are we in a climate crisis which politicians are not seeing yet

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0

the hot Beast from the east is back in this run

GFS 6z brings the hot easterly back, models really are all over the place after day 6 at the moment. Be awhile before its resolved. 

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this on a model output before (excluding Navgem of course). Even in 2003.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=3&model=gfs&var=17&time=300&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

38C on the raw output. Add 2...

We did have a major SSW event five months ago which at the very least seems to have temporarily disrupted our usual west-east weather patterrns. Any spells of westerly-based weather we have had since the end of last winter have been few and those that have occured have been pretty short in duration.

Contrast that to last year when northern parts of the UK had a very poor summer, and although the south had a better start to the summer, the good weather there as far as I know didn't last the duration.

06z on the hot sauce into August. Insanely hot plume dragged forcibly up from the south; records surely under threat should it verify. One run I know but fun to see!

Looks downright dangerous to be honest! But well in FI anyway.

Right out in the extended range yes, but shades of August 1990/2003 on this morning's GFS. Hitting 40°C would be a pretty serious consideration. It would certainly put the icing on the cake for this summer, that's for sure.

Good news for heat haters, it's a long way out so very low likelihood.

Peak temps from 31 July to 5 August using raw output plus 2: 36, 32, 33, 37, 40, 38, 31.

Yes, the heat is off the scale again. Here's a static snapshot which won't update.

Out of curiosity, how far out did the ensembles pick up on the early August 2003 heatwave? 

From memory they picked up a settled spell quite early but the real heat started appearing on charts just over a week in advance. I remember sharing one showing 37C on the Wednesday (6th) around the previous Wednesday. It was only quite late in the day that the second burst of heat on Saturday and Sunday 9th-10th appeared.

in fact the 9th and 10th were initially modelled to be cooler with a strongish easterly breeze with maxes around 30. It wasn’t until the Thursday that more of a ridge was modelled to the east allowing the hotter uppers to be adverted towards the U.K.

Out of interest, has the 576 dam line ever reached the mainland UK before? That chart is just insane.

Thanks, some very warm ensembles at the end on the Manchester 06z ensembles.