I expect it will be out ok kilter with the ensembles.

A recent trend with the GFS operational. High pressure rebuilds in after the low lifts northwards, though. Nothing truly unsettled on the way.

Like you say still differences early in the run though so not resolved yet. 

The output I will be more focused on today will be the UKMO 12z.

Malcolm

Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Well, despite the naysayers it seems we've got some rain IMBY - the first rainfall for 43 days. The noon temperature is 19.4C, too.

The ensembles picked this up a week ago, showing a wet and cooler end to the week. They were spot on for here at least.

We've had several cool outliers in a row. Interestingly it’s not a cool outlier for central France, or Scandinavia. That suggests there is a big blob of heat around throughout the next 2 weeks in our neck of the woods, and any variation in the U.K. op is because we’re on the margins of it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=45510&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

Definitely not such a good pattern for the North and West as earlier in the season. We’re back into a more 2015 set-up, with the SE on the edge of major heat.

P16 goes a bit bonkers, with 23C 850s towards the end in the far SE!

That'll come off believe  me.

P16 would definitely see us break the 2003 record, and might potentially give the French a shot at beating their harder to achieve all time record (43C I think). Would make my holiday a little unpleasant.

44c in fact. Extraordinary for any European country. 

Edit: interesting map showing warmest ever temps in Europe by state. (from 'reddit')

Great map. The Swedish and Finnish results are impressive given how far north they are, but Norway is the most relatively impressive of all. 

Bardufoss in Northern Norway broke its all time record high 2 days ago, with 33.5C being recorded. This is at 69 degrees North, just a few miles from the Norwegian sea, where the average July maximum temperature is a pathetic 17.6C.

The Iceland maximum temperature is remarkable as it difficult to see what set up to get a temperature that high as a hot airmass has to cross over a considerable area of water and nowhere is that far from the coast.

It was set on the 22nd June 1939

I am not liking this for my neck of the woods I'd got used to the good weather.

Perhaps at least part of the explanation for that lies in the date of the record, just one day after the summer solstice. That would be too early to expect a UK max temp record but up there with essentially constant sun at that time of year, perhaps that could have helped boost the value. Perhaps it was 'home grown heat' a result of an anticyclone sitting over the area for a long period of time?

http://i1075.photobucket.com/albums/w430/Reddwarfer123/NOAA_1_1939062212_1_zpsri7cbskt.png 

Still remarkable though given the average high in that region of Iceland is below 15C. For comparison's sake, it would be the same as Leeds or Manchester recording temperatures of 37C (probably possible in theory but would take a truly exceptional set up).

UKMO 12z T+144 is a bit of a "dance with the devil" chart...

Probably a katabatic effect aided by topography. 

Interesting and very unusual set up in that chart you posted. My guess would be that some sort of 'fohn' effect occurred in the region where such an extraordinary high temp was recorded. 

Good news from ECM

@kerry_mason 66% of @ECMWF members agree on a ridge of high pressure persisting across Northern Europe through to mid August.

ECM op run looks pretty warm, 16C-17C 850s in the SE by T168, and heading westwards