The Weather Outlook

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moomin75
20 July 2018 19:01:21

The hot plume fades away by 192 but renewed ridging is coming in from the SW. Nice run.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A real shame that the extreme heat is off the cards. That seems pretty much certain now. Still back up to 30c will do. Shame we won't be seeing mid-30s and I think we are pretty much running out of time for that. Got, at most 2-3 weeks left for that.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Brian Gaze
20 July 2018 19:01:54

Plenty of scorchers tonight!


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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moomin75
20 July 2018 19:06:58

Plenty of scorchers tonight!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Still an outside chance of mid 30s, but very unlikely. But summer continues and we've had a lovely drop of rain today to freshen things up a bit.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

David M Porter
20 July 2018 19:07:07

 

A real shame that the extreme heat is off the cards. That seems pretty much certain now. Still back up to 30c will do. Shame we won't be seeing mid-30s and I think we are pretty much running out of time for that. Got, at most 2-3 weeks left for that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Maybe, but the last two times the UK all-time highest temperature record was set was in August. In 1990 it was set on 3rd August (37.1C) and then in 2003 it was exactly a week later; 38.5C on 19th August 2003. IIRC both of those early August very hot spells came after some previous hot weather in the July of each year.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

moomin75
20 July 2018 19:12:53

 

Maybe, but the last two times the UK all-time highest temperature record was set was in August. In 1990 it was set on 3rd August (37.1C) and then in 2003 it was exactly a week later; 38.5C on 19th August 2003. IIRC both of those early August very hot spells came after some previous hot weather in the July of each year.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I think the 38.5c was on 10th August, so as I said, perhaps a window of another 2-3 weeks. 


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
20 July 2018 19:14:44

 

A real shame that the extreme heat is off the cards. That seems pretty much certain now. Still back up to 30c will do. Shame we won't be seeing mid-30s and I think we are pretty much running out of time for that. Got, at most 2-3 weeks left for that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Can we try to refrain from teenage melodramatics on every run? Please?

It was only a few days ago next week was looking decidedly cooler. Then things reverted hot again. We may or may not reach 35+ but to be honest, that would demand a setup throwing a major spannner in the works for a prolonged beautiful August. So keep calm and carry on. 

moomin75
20 July 2018 19:16:59

Can we try to refrain from teenage melodramatics on every run? Please?

It was only a few days ago next week was looking decidedly cooler. Then things reverted hot again. We may or may not reach 35+ but to be honest, that would demand a setup throwing a major spannner in the works for a prolonged beautiful August. So keep calm and carry on. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Say what??? What a bizarre post? My post was neither teenage nor melodramatic. It was surprisingly upbeat for me, just saying that the chances of records are diminishing somewhat.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
20 July 2018 19:20:34
Nice to see the 12z set has β€˜tidied’ itself against the previous couple of runs.

Now we have virtually the entire suite above the 30year average from 1st August with only one straggler trying to spoil the party... Shall we call him, Shropshire perhaps.

David M Porter
20 July 2018 19:20:53

I think the 38.5c was on 10th August, so as I said, perhaps a window of another 2-3 weeks. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Ah, thanks Kieren. I knew it was the 10th of August 2003 that the record was set- that was a typo on my part!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

moomin75
20 July 2018 19:22:21

Nice to see the 12z set has ‘tidied’ itself against the previous couple of runs.
Now we have virtually the entire suite above the 30year average from 1st August with only one straggler trying to spoil the party... Shall we call him, Shropshire perhaps.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Not me surely? I am on board with a continued prolonged settled and hot spell. Just not as hot as it might have been.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
20 July 2018 19:25:15

Not me surely? I am on board with a continued prolonged settled and hot spell. Just not as hot as it might have been.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

no old bean I was referring to P6 in the ensembles:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Just using Shropshire as an analogy for a ‘rotten apple’ scenario. 

moomin75
20 July 2018 19:26:03

no old bean I was referring to P6 in the ensembles:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Just using Shropshire as an analogy for a ‘rotten apple’ scenario. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Ah ok. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

golfingmad
20 July 2018 19:28:07

Say what??? What a bizarre post? My post was neither teenage nor melodramatic. It was surprisingly upbeat for me, just saying that the chances of records are diminishing somewhat.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

To be fair, I think we have more than 2-3 weeks of potentially hot weather in the UK. The meteorological summer ends on the 31st August, so we have 6 weeks to go. The hottest UK temperature of 38.5C was recorded on 10th August 2003 in Faversham, Kent. Incredibly, 36.1C was recorded in Halstead (Essex) and at several locations in London on 19th August 1932. Even on the 31st August 1906 34.9C was recorded in Maidenhead. So all August days have the potential to reach or even exceed 35C. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the biggest heatwave of all this summer takes place in August.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Polar Low
20 July 2018 19:32:01

Monday looks very hot for s/e Brian according> Apege

30c by 10:00 hours

Chart image

Then 16.00

Chart image

Roasters are still there

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

Plenty of scorchers tonight!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Polar Low
20 July 2018 19:45:24

Just noticed,Night time record temp under threat?

Chart image

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2018 19:45:57

Monday looks very hot for s/e Brian according> Apege

30c by 10:00 hours

Chart image

Then 16.00

Chart image

 Gosh, 20C. Well thanks for that. Although local NW tonight forecast going for 28C for Monday. So split the difference and go for a nice warm 24C? Seriously, this whole thing is quite ridiculous, who knows what forecast to believe? And we're not talking FI here, just 3 days away!

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

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Polar Low
20 July 2018 19:49:33

very very close to a very special chart for the s/e ecm mean at 144

 

 

Gavin P
20 July 2018 20:19:27

12z run's look pretty hot don't they? 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Polar Low
20 July 2018 20:35:33

Or potentially very hot for the se Gav

Outlook for Wednesday 25 Jul 2018 to Friday 3 Aug 2018:

Temperatures nearer normal in the west, but generally very warm elsewhere, with hot or very hot conditions at times, especially in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Aug 2018 to Saturday 18 Aug 2018:

Temperatures remaining above average for most, with the potential for further spells of very warm or hot conditions, and possibly very hot, especially in the southeast

 

 

12z run's look pretty hot don't they? 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Jiries
20 July 2018 20:38:18

12z run's look pretty hot don't they? 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Yes and would start seeing daily 30C temps or over being recorded every day to end from the latest runs.   I still think we could get 35C if condition is right regardless the uppers but one thing it need it is the removal of the clouds that had been far too much and not welcome since it not doing anything to rain or give storms but potentially deliberating the temps maxes like today incident.

Polar Low
20 July 2018 20:48:56
Gusty
20 July 2018 21:03:25

The heat continues to build. I would love to beat 1976.

1976 is the benchmark and was considered as almost untouchable.

The tide mark continues to rise though. Given our warming climate in recent years a challenge of this sort was to be expected. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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20 July 2018 21:12:52

No weakness in sight ecm mean fab block n/e looks like shades of 76

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

That chart is an excellent example of why almost the whole of the northern hemisphere from the mid-latitudes north is experiencing very warm conditions at the moment. Huge area of high pressure dominating the whole of the Atlantic. Same again across the Pacific. Another large high across the far north of Scandinavia. 

The only low pressure is a flabby belt of relatively lower pressure from the far north of Canada across the Pole to Siberia. 

Very blocked and very difficult to see much changing really until the Arctic starts to cool down. I would not be at all surprised to see the very warm conditions continuing throughout August and most of September. Any precipitation is likely to be mainly in the form of showers.

Rob K
20 July 2018 22:34:44
Well today was forecast to reach 27C and we topped out at 23, so the models don’t always overdo the heat!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2018 22:54:14
18z serves up a FI feast from 252hrs onwards. Middling until then. Huge and unrealistically deep winter depression in the Atlantic.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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