Oh my!  

GEM just the 14C cooler at 850mb by 240 hours then 

We can only hope that the GFS is NOT close to the mark.

Mid to upper 30s and high humidity...no thanks. Unbearable would be an understatement. I value both my health and sleep.

Not if the UKMO is right, it certainly wouldn't go that way if we could see that model at days 7 and 8. Much cooler and unsettled for the West as agreed by both models. 

We want mommin to come along and say it won't happen (reverse psychology).

It doesn't show that for us thankfully CC ! 

It would probably feel worse here, with temperatures of 30C and increased moisture. On the plus side, we're at least shown to get some rain in the form of thunderstorms pushing up through our patch.

Quite the contrary - I don't think it's hot enough. We should be aiming for 45 or even 50C, with 100% humidity. 

🔥🔥🔥

I do hope not, as I'd fear for local livestock if our resident divinators chuck the char and adopt haruspicy instead. 

Anyway, GEM 12z gives a glancing plume with the Atlantic low pushing through quite quickly, but GEM does have a tendency to overdo those lows in the mid- to long-term. UKMO is not too dissimilar to GFS at T+144. GEFS will be interesting to see if there's any support for the Op. 

That's more like it. How anyone can like the GFS run is beyond me.

22C, sunshine and showers please

To be fair most agencies have been flagging up the possibility of it turning hot or very hot next week. Today's model runs offer support for that scenario but it's obviously not in the bag! We're looking at a weather event that is still a week or so away. 

Wouldn't happen to be 'Cheese' from NW would you?

You're having a laugh - that chart wouldn't produce anywhere near 22C here. Probably 15C with showers. Yuck.

Ha ha, but we've already had the usual laughable post from Shropshire!

Shropshire has a point though. Given that it's GFS, there will be a different story in the next run with a dartboard low over Ireland at T+180.

Maybe. Let's see what the ensembles and ECM say.

ENS so far suggests op is at the upper end but not an outlier up to end of next week. GEM Op is a big cool outlier.

As always we await the real daddy, ECM.

GEFS 12z at a glance look very hot late next week. I've posted t+222 tmax 2m from all of the ensemble members in the tweet thread below.

GEFS 12z hasn't quite finished running on TWO but I'll post max temp forecasts for 18GMT, Fri 27th July from each perturbation, 1) Control run to P3 pic.twitter.com/TJdTkNpXvi

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 18, 2018

GEFS 12z update. I don't have time to look in-depth but at a glance my take is a period of hot or very hot weather looks increasingly likely next week. Obviously the GFS 12z itself was right at the top end between 27/07 and 21/07.

Even more of an outlier on the 2m temperatures. For some reason the op run doesn't cool down at night.