The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
18 July 2018 16:18:44

The heat for this weekend is getting steadily watered down. A couple of days ago it looked like 30C+ was on the cards, now it looks more like 25-26C, maybe a little higher on Sunday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

GFS 12z is going for 27C on Sat and 28C Sunday. Often you can add a couple of C to the raw values so 30C looks possible to me.

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Jiries
18 July 2018 16:23:22

The heat for this weekend is getting steadily watered down. A couple of days ago it looked like 30C+ was on the cards, now it looks more like 25-26C, maybe a little higher on Sunday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It never forecast to have heat this weekend as it due to arrive after a very warm weekend to be a very hot week ahead.

David M Porter
18 July 2018 16:23:44

 

 

Yes August 95 was an epic summer spell. Seen in modern times as the best summer per se simply because the great weather fell within the month of August, which is the quintessential summer month because the children are off school. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Hard to disagree about August 1995. It is at the very least on a par with the very best summer months I can remember.

In fact, had the final CET for that month been another 0.4 or so higher, it would have dethroned the then record holder as warmest month on record which was July 1983.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
18 July 2018 16:24:20

 

GFS 12z is going for 27C on Sat and 28C Sunday. Often you can add a couple of C to the raw values so 30C looks possible to me.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Fair enough, I was going on the low-res charts. And the pattern looks better for prolonged settled weather now - the higher temps were always associated with the LP getting closer to us. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:24:47
I’ve noticed the daily maxes are moving around quite a lot on GFS at the moment and looking at the output this seems to be a product of cloud amounts. Several days on the latest run, which looks hot synopticakly, have subdued maxes due to heavy cloud cover.

We had a remarkable run of sunshine until end of last week because no Atlantic much had crossed the country for weeks so all that was left was remnants of convective activity. Now a couple of frontal systems have introduced some damper and messier air which will take a while to clear out again.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:26:53

 

Hard to disagree about August 1995. It is at the very least on a par with the very best summer months I can remember.

In fact, had the final CET for that month been another 0.4 or so higher, it would have dethroned the then record holder as warmest month on record which was July 1983.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I missed the majority of the hot weather as I was on holiday with my then girlfriend in Greece. Arrived back on the last 30C day.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
golfingmad
18 July 2018 16:29:27

GFS 12Z impressive to T+180. If anything warmer than the earlier run. High pressure centred over the southern North Sea and the small low to the west drawing up warm air from the south. Interesting!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:29:46
12z GFS. Last and biggest of the 4 consecutive upgrades. Up to 7 days anyway.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
golfingmad
18 July 2018 16:32:34

GFS T+195 and the high has intensified and sits over the Baltic Sea. Classic heatwave set-up.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:33:05
By 204hrs GFS is shaping up to deliver something dangerous.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
superteacher
18 July 2018 16:33:48

12z GFS. Last and biggest of the 4 consecutive upgrades. Up to 7 days anyway.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Time to get some new tea leaves Tim! More upgrades coming!

Brian Gaze
18 July 2018 16:34:20

Furnace heat by the middle of next week.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
18 July 2018 16:35:29
16C 850s by T192... and 32C at the surface, probably add 3C to that based on recent experience.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

golfingmad
18 July 2018 16:38:13

 

Time to get some new tea leaves Tim! More upgrades coming!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

As long as you don't end up counting all the tea leaves

Almost ludicrous GFS run. We will all be roasted alive if that comes off.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:38:27

31C at 9am on Friday...

EDIT: 35C at 12pm


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
18 July 2018 16:39:03

 

 

 

 

That's a potential 2003-beater.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
18 July 2018 16:43:48

FWIW 10 August 2003 had very similar 850s as those progged for next Friday on this run: about 18-19C in the southeast corner.

 

 

If that came off this time around, we'd have the benefit of a longer period of drought and heating beforehand. I reckon we'd beat that 38.5C mark.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 16:45:13

Saturday certainly shaping up to be a 2003 beater.

But remember end of next week is FI. Still fun to watch though. ENS will be more important.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
LeedsLad123
18 July 2018 16:45:53

FWIW 10 August 2003 had very similar 850s as those progged for next Friday on this run: about 18-19C in the southeast corner.

 

 

If that came off this time around, we'd have the benefit of a longer period of drought and heating beforehand. I reckon we'd beat that 38.5C mark.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I remember that day.. it was 38C in London but only 28C here. I was pretty pissed off. 

Would be great if we could beat our record of 34.4C set in August 1990. 28 years and counting..


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 July 2018 16:47:31

I think this run has to be the high-water mark. It can't get any better for heat fans surely? Just look at that - that's no glancing blow, the 18C isotherm is almost hitting Newcastle!

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

golfingmad
18 July 2018 16:47:35

By T+240 the high stands firm over the Baltic states, and the low to the west also just stays where it is. Sustained prolonged heat. Potentially quite frightening.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Rob K
18 July 2018 16:48:53

LOL it is literally off the charts! Brian you need a new temperature scale 

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
18 July 2018 16:50:37

LOL it is literally off the charts! Brian you need a new temperature scale 

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Hope you don't mind... I just edited your image link and put a static snapshot in so it won't refresh tomorrow. You are absolutely right, the temperatures have gone off the scale. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
18 July 2018 16:52:35

 

Hope you don't mind... I just edited your image link and put a static snapshot in so it won't refresh tomorrow. You are absolutely right, the temperatures have gone off the scale. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

No problem - I was going to save that one for posterity anyway!

 

The heat across Europe is crazy on this run. 

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2018 16:54:26

Probably  a 100f maybe even 40c run from GFS. unlikely but possible in the set up that could happen next week.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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