I don’t really care about winter. Don’t mind some snow and it looks pretty but generally prefer mild weather. Summer is where the real action is.

And even that run probably overestimates the low pressure at the end. Pressure will probably end up higher over the UK with the troughing further south.

"Four downgrades then four upgrades"

By all means comment on the model output, but can we please leave the tea leaves out of it.

18z shows a depression crossing the U.K. a week from now. Probably a cool wet outlier.

GFS 00z going for a furnace like scenario next week.

and the 00z keeps the low out west and, as Brian says above, keeps many places very warm/hot through next week. Upgrades/downgrades = the usual variability past t+144 

I think we are approaching the "double or bust" scenario and why not? It has been a cracking summer to date and whilst the changes may increase the chance of a breakdown they also give us a shot at the hottest spell of the year. Something for everyone! 

I’d buy that. The GEFS and GEM ens are both showing a lot of hot scenarios but also some unsettled ones. The consistent pattern in both, which seems to be a Scandinavian high, would lend itself to this double or bust situation.

Anyway, first of the 4 upgrades was 18z and 00z continues the trend.

GEFS 00z P2 is the hottest run in the set and shows what *could* happen late July. For a given set-up you can often add 2C to 3C to what the GEFS perturbation shows to estimate maximums. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: A number of GEFS runs go cooler & changeable. https://t.co/jC1z7YTpj8 pic.twitter.com/qHLi6hCvvt

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 18, 2018

I think it will be neither double nor bust, but just carry on.

BBC expecting heat to continue but with (?plume) thunderstorms

Yes, ECM gets very close to mainlining the furnace:

That what I think as it will carry on very dry with 28-32C temps this weekend to next week.

That’s the form horse this summer.

In some years the double scenario would imply hitting 30C. That’s just “more of the same” in the 2018 context.

This year is a really powerful example of soil moisture feedback, both on rainfall amounts and daily maxes. The gap between 850hPa and surface temperatures has regularly been as much as 18-20C. I had always used a rule of thumb of 17-18C in strong sunshine, in midsummer, reducing to 15C by late August.

good post 👍

the models are starting to show what we’ve been talking about with a low spinning up the NW flank of the British Isles dragging up some Iberian heat. I can’t see it being particularly conducive to thunderstorm conditions but maybe the odd localised downpour followed by more of the same warmth we’ve had since mid June. 

When uppers was 7C yesterday I recorded 27.1C which was the coolest day and today look warmer feel despite slow uppers rising   I think I would see 32-33C early next week and onward after this coming days of 29-30C here starting from today.

Yes I have noticed that: on days with temperatures hitting the high 20s you check the 850mb charts and see they are only 8-9C! If we could tap into a proper 18C+ plume before we get any rain then 40C would have to be on the cards. That would be the icing on the cake (but I very much doubt we will be that lucky!)

Is this something new and due to climate change or the sun

I don't recall temperatures rising so easily 20 or 30 years ago. 

Not new at all, it happens every year in the Med and it's mostly due to the dry ground feedback.

In fact, it can be even stronger in the UK due to the longer days and the last great example was 1976.

Mid 30s indeed or 15-20C at 850mb. The later has happened a lot over the last 15 years, but it's noticeably absent this year (so far). 

Every chance now of this happening, with serious heat next week. If this comes off, will the record CET for July of 19.7C in 2006 be challenged?