ECM has maintained the same signal more or less throughout, and has performed more convincingly of all the models. GFS in comparison has been more variable, certainly beyond T120 anyway.
I get the feeling that the significance of this summer is creeping up on many without them really realising the impact of what is taking place. Now that a really big heatwave may occur over the weekend and into next week, this attitude may change.
The point about 1976 was that it really began with a 'bang' earlier on with the ludicrous hot heatwave 21st June through to 9th July. When that happened, everyone knew that something special was happening. Everything after that was a bonus, so that although there was only sustained warmth until the end of August, the impact of the summer of 1976 was already firmly established in everyone's minds.
If we get the 'big' heatwave next week, perhaps running into the beginning of August, then everything changes. The cards are on the table. People will then realise we are facing a truly spectacular summer, a summer potentially even warmer than the summer of 1976, and therefore the hottest summer of all in the CET series stretching back to 1659. That alone is a truly incredible statistic, and for me having vividly experienced the summer of 1976, a truly incredible weather experience I thought I would never see again.
Originally Posted by: golfingmad