The Weather Outlook

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superteacher
18 July 2018 09:29:31

 

Every chance now of this happening, with serious heat next week. If this comes off, will the record CET for July of 19.7C in 2006 be challenged?

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

 

Not quite nailed on yet though. In an ideal world, we would like that Atlantic LP to back west a bit.

Hungry Tiger
18 July 2018 10:01:13

 

Every chance now of this happening, with serious heat next week. If this comes off, will the record CET for July of 19.7C in 2006 be challenged?

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

From what I can see - I don't know about it being challenged. But whatever, there will be a CET for July in excess of 19.0C and that is really quite incredible.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
18 July 2018 10:36:16
GFS 06Z is quite different, with the low further north but also a little further east, making the flow more SW to NE over the UK and keeping the Scandi high at bay somewhat. However the bulk of the UK is still very much on the warm and settled side.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

superteacher
18 July 2018 10:47:34
GFS 6z FI would see the CET record challenged.
golfingmad
18 July 2018 10:59:51

GFS 6z FI would see the CET record challenged.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Apologies for keeping on agreeing with you! Latest GFS run just simply looks hot, by T+180 on really hot. Definitely a CET over 19.0C if that comes off.

Slightly off topic but here are the Top Five Julys in the CET series:

2006: 19.7

1983: 19.5

1883: 18.8

1976: 18.7

1853: 18.7

 

So amazingly this July looks as though it will surpass July 1976 and by some margin. Quite incredible!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Rob K
18 July 2018 11:19:22

GFS 6z FI would see the CET record challenged.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

And it even shows a renewed plume waiting to the south at the end of the run!

 

Meanwhile ARPEGE has gone from predicting 32C for Saturday yesterday to just 26C on the latest 00Z run. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Sevendust
18 July 2018 11:27:06

 

Apologies for keeping on agreeing with you! Latest GFS run just simply looks hot, by T+180 on really hot. Definitely a CET over 19.0C if that comes off.

Slightly off topic but here are the Top Five Julys in the CET series:

2006: 19.7

1983: 19.5

1883: 18.8

1976: 18.7

1853: 18.7

 

So amazingly this July looks as though it will surpass July 1976 and by some margin. Quite incredible!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

July 1976 is only up there due to the first half. It was decidedly average after the 16th 

KevBrads1
18 July 2018 11:31:28

GFS 06z mean chart at 240hr, looks a very warm/hot run overall for the ensembles

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

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moomin75
18 July 2018 11:50:01
Holy cow....these must be some of the hottest Ensembles I've seen.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

superteacher
18 July 2018 11:52:38

Holy cow....these must be some of the hottest Ensembles I've seen.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

">http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Very toasty. There are some quite incredible runs in there.

Not many dartboard lows!

Jiries
18 July 2018 11:58:37

">http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Very toasty. There are some quite incredible runs in there.

Not many dartboard lows!

Quite a tight clustering of the uppers so almost full agreement to stay hot all the way so likely around 28-30C to the weekend then 32-35C from next week.

Rob K
18 July 2018 12:02:50

Holy cow....these must be some of the hottest Ensembles I've seen.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

">http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

When you consider that the temperature this weekend (or Monday at least) could hit 30-31C... many of those runs are a good 5-6C warmer the following weekend 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
18 July 2018 12:09:34

 

Quite a spread, but just look how many runs there are with the max well into the 30s next week. The chart for Brighton goes even hotter with a 36C. Then add another 2-3C for GFS underestimation.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
18 July 2018 12:21:17
With the summer holidays starting it looks like the curse of the broken heat wave will come to an end, like the curse of the England penalty shoot outs.

Met office still going for ‘hot or very hot’ mentioned for the foreseeable future.

ECM shows the block establishing north of the U.K. later on with generally slack conditions. You get the feeling if we don’t hit 35 next week it may well do so the following.

Rob K
18 July 2018 12:23:38

You get the feeling if we don’t hit 35 next week it may well do so the following.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Forget 35, we want 40C! 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
18 July 2018 12:24:05

With the summer holidays starting it looks like the curse of the broken heat wave will come to an end, like the curse of the England penalty shoot outs.

Met office still going for ‘hot or very hot’ mentioned for the foreseeable future.

ECM shows the block establishing north of the U.K. later on with generally slack conditions. You get the feeling if we don’t hit 35 next week it may well do so the following.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I think there is a chance of the record going. We are a full 3 weeks ahead of the 38c in 2003. 

Interesting times ahead. Even if it does all go bang afterwards, this has been the best summer I've lived through.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 12:34:08
The mischief maker in me would point out that getting excited over a set of charts and declaring mid 30s or that a 19C CET is nailed on is morally equivalent to declaring summer is over after a wet one. But somewhat less prone to criticism.

But the hot weather lover in me is enjoying the 3rd of our 4 consecutive upgrades as told to me by the tea leaves yesterday.

GEFS looking very warm and very dry. ECM still pretty reasonable too. And ECM is the king of course.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
golfingmad
18 July 2018 13:15:01

The mischief maker in me would point out that getting excited over a set of charts and declaring mid 30s or that a 19C CET is nailed on is morally equivalent to declaring summer is over after a wet one. But somewhat less prone to criticism.

But the hot weather lover in me is enjoying the 3rd of our 4 consecutive upgrades as told to me by the tea leaves yesterday.

GEFS looking very warm and very dry. ECM still pretty reasonable too. And ECM is the king of course.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

ECM has maintained the same signal more or less throughout, and has performed more convincingly of all the models. GFS in comparison has been more variable, certainly beyond T120 anyway.

I get the feeling that the significance of this summer is creeping up on many without them really realising the impact of what is taking place. Now that a really big heatwave may occur over the weekend and into next week, this attitude may change.

The point about 1976 was that it really began with a 'bang' earlier on with the ludicrous hot heatwave 21st June through to 9th July. When that happened, everyone knew that something special was happening. Everything after that was a bonus, so that although there was only sustained warmth until the end of August, the impact of the summer of 1976 was already firmly established in everyone's minds.

If we get the 'big' heatwave next week, perhaps running into the beginning of August, then everything changes.  The cards are on the table. People will then realise we are facing a truly spectacular summer, a summer potentially even warmer than the summer of 1976, and therefore the hottest summer of all in the CET series stretching back to 1659. That alone is a truly incredible statistic, and for me having vividly experienced the summer of 1976, a truly incredible weather experience I thought I would never see again.

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Hungry Tiger
18 July 2018 13:23:25

 

ECM has maintained the same signal more or less throughout, and has performed more convincingly of all the models. GFS in comparison has been more variable, certainly beyond T120 anyway.

I get the feeling that the significance of this summer is creeping up on many without them really realising the impact of what is taking place. Now that a really big heatwave may occur over the weekend and into next week, this attitude may change.

The point about 1976 was that it really began with a 'bang' earlier on with the ludicrous hot heatwave 21st June through to 9th July. When that happened, everyone knew that something special was happening. Everything after that was a bonus, so that although there was only sustained warmth until the end of August, the impact of the summer of 1976 was already firmly established in everyone's minds.

If we get the 'big' heatwave next week, perhaps running into the beginning of August, then everything changes.  The cards are on the table. People will then realise we are facing a truly spectacular summer, a summer potentially even warmer than the summer of 1976, and therefore the hottest summer of all in the CET series stretching back to 1659. That alone is a truly incredible statistic, and for me having vividly experienced the summer of 1976, a truly incredible weather experience I thought I would never see again.

 

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

I think this already a better summer than 1976 - I remember 1976 well. But this summer certainly in my part of the country commenced in May - May was excellent.

The summer of 1976 didn't commence until the 20th June of that year and it was over on the August Bank Holiday.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



golfingmad
18 July 2018 13:27:31

 

I think this already a better summer than 1976 - I remember 1976 well. But this summer certainly in my part of the country commenced in May - May was excellent.

The summer of 1976 didn't commence until the 20th June of that year and it was over on the August Bank Holiday.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

 

The beginning of June was quite warm, certainly in London anyway. I had the misfortune to be sitting 'O' levels which stretched from the end of May right up to the beginning of the heatwave. Either way, June 1976 came out at 17.0C in the CET series, not bad at all.

But yes, up to today, this summer does feel just as good if not better than 1976. It's certainly been drier than 1976, my poor lawn is now nearly dead!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Sharp Green Fox
18 July 2018 13:37:12

 

 

The beginning of June was quite warm, certainly in London anyway. I had the misfortune to be sitting 'O' levels which stretched from the end of May right up to the beginning of the heatwave. Either way, June 1976 came out at 17.0C in the CET series, not bad at all.

But yes, up to today, this summer does feel just as good if not better than 1976. It's certainly been drier than 1976, my poor lawn is now nearly dead!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Yes I agree with you, the dates 6th to about 11th June 1976 were very warm, if memory serves me correctly. In fact May 1976 had some good moments too. To me this year has been incredibly similar to 1976. A few poor days in the middle of June and a slight switch off of heat in the middle of July. I lived in Manchester at the time, so things may have been different elsewhere.

superteacher
18 July 2018 13:43:03
What would take some serious beating is matching the combined CET of July and August 1995, which was miles better than 1976.

As others have said, 1976 was well remembered for the incredible late June / early July heatwave. The rest of the summer never reached those heights apart from a couple of spells in August. I still think August 1995 is the best summer month ever.

Downpour
18 July 2018 15:17:05

What would take some serious beating is matching the combined CET of July and August 1995, which was miles better than 1976.
As others have said, 1976 was well remembered for the incredible late June / early July heatwave. The rest of the summer never reached those heights apart from a couple of spells in August. I still think August 1995 is the best summer month ever.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

 

Yes August 95 was an epic summer spell. Seen in modern times as the best summer per se simply because the great weather fell within the month of August, which is the quintessential summer month because the children are off school. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

xioni2
18 July 2018 15:39:34

I could easily be wrong, but I think the extreme heat lovers will be disappointed and we'll keep getting more of the very warm and dry weather with the blocking high closer to us and the troughing further south.

 

Rob K
18 July 2018 16:12:13
The heat for this weekend is getting steadily watered down. A couple of days ago it looked like 30C+ was on the cards, now it looks more like 25-26C, maybe a little higher on Sunday.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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