The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
08 July 2018 21:33:23

 

incredible. Bone dry here for two months would be quite something. I hate it, but more excuses to drink to help with sleep issues! Lol

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

People who struggle to sleep should of course stick to drinking water. Fortunately I have no problems sleeping in this heat. 

Tonight's ECM is the sort of thing heat lovers should be looking out for because it could lead to a plume and record breaking heat.

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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White Meadows
08 July 2018 21:34:54
Bring on the furnace!!! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Jiries
08 July 2018 21:36:28

Good post.

i remember 95 well, scorched lawns and dusty footpaths over the downs... I was thinking of August 95 the other day and how similar this spell feels.

WRT sea temps I think you are onto something with the HP sitting over +anomaly temp zones. 

Long may this balmy treat continue. Heck... more people moan when it rains for endless days & nights- why can’t some people at least try to embrace it. It makes me wonder where they take their summer holidays. Or if they even have them at all!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Sea temps get updated daily and very interesting to keep watching it because I am sure it can go over 20 by August and like what Gavin P mentioned above this will ensure HP more stronger to stay over the UK until Autumn season.  Strong musty smell from outside while I am typing this so fully embracing this.  

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2018 21:42:46

 

People who struggle to sleep should of course stick to drinking water. Fortunately I have no problems sleeping in this heat. 

Tonight's ECM is the sort of thing heat lovers should be looking out for because it could lead to a plume and record breaking heat.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

We got to 32.4c today with 850s of about 12c . If we can get a decent plume soon we'd probably only need 850s of 18c to beat the all time record.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
08 July 2018 21:46:53

We got to 32.4c today with 850s of about 12c . If we can get a decent plume soon we'd probably only need 850s of 18c to beat the all time record.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes and don't forget the all time record was set in the second week of August. I remember at the time many people were saying it was too late in the summer. With the dry ground and background warmth I reckon we have until about August 15th to beat the 38.5C. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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LeedsLad123
08 July 2018 21:53:25

 

Yes and don't forget the all time record was set in the second week of August. I remember at the time many people were saying it was too late in the summer. With the dry ground and background warmth I reckon we have until about August 15th to beat the 38.5C. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Late July and early August are probably the best times to break the record.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Sevendust
08 July 2018 22:55:39

 

People who struggle to sleep should of course stick to drinking water. Fortunately I have no problems sleeping in this heat. 

Tonight's ECM is the sort of thing heat lovers should be looking out for because it could lead to a plume and record breaking heat.

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed - That low stalling and sinking where it does could well introduce the furnace. Long way off mind but we have avoided it so far and it would be the icing on the cake.

moomin75
09 July 2018 05:12:31
The breakdown is steadily coming into the reliable timeframe now. For the first time in weeks, it is inside the 7-9 day time frame. I think this might start to turn now....and just in time for schools breaking up.

I would fear it would herald a disappointing August, but hopefully not and it'll be just a temporary blip.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 05:32:36

Late July and early August are probably the best times to break the record.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

I’d agree with that if we’d had rain in April but it’s been very dry and hot earlier in the year and surface soil has dried already.  With less surface moisture I think the record could be broken earlier. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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White Meadows
09 July 2018 06:31:21

The breakdown is steadily coming into the reliable timeframe now. For the first time in weeks, it is inside the 7-9 day time frame. I think this might start to turn now....and just in time for schools breaking up.
I would fear it would herald a disappointing August, but hopefully not and it'll be just a temporary blip.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Looks ok to me? 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Certainly nothing representative of a ‘breakdown’. More like a gradual cool off before temps rising again.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 06:35:55

I’d agree with that if we’d had rain in April but it’s been very dry and hot earlier in the year and surface soil has dried already.  With less surface moisture I think the record could be broken earlier. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Warm SSTs help though - they keep out those cold boundary layers and stop sea breezes from setting up. 

Right now though, looking at this morning’s output, we need to concentrate on keeping the rolling ex-hurricane as far West as possible. We saw off the return of the westerlies in June, now it’s round 2. The ENS are full of big rainfall spikes.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
09 July 2018 07:09:08

 

Looks ok to me? 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Certainly nothing representative of a ‘breakdown’. More like a gradual cool off before temps rising again.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Ensembles had been doing very poorly in the last month as it kept showing rain spikes even on the same day never happen and I am not stupid but caught them lowering the uppers for last Friday to Monday from 15C to 10C today (was 12C on Saturday for today) which should see 23-25C here but still many of us getting 30-32C and today the same despite at 10C uppers.  Same in Cyprus they also been wrong with very low uppers despite Nicosia reached the highest temps of the year yesterday when they expected temps to drop to 38C yesterday after seeing 40C on Sat but hit 41C instead.

bledur
09 July 2018 07:16:14

The breakdown is steadily coming into the reliable timeframe now. For the first time in weeks, it is inside the 7-9 day time frame. I think this might start to turn now....and just in time for schools breaking up.
I would fear it would herald a disappointing August, but hopefully not and it'll be just a temporary blip.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

 Indeed. Bit of model agreement now.

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moomin75
09 July 2018 07:29:21
The end is nigh for this incredible spell. But that doesn't necessarily mean the end is nigh for our whole summer.

I do fear for August though, as they been pretty poor in recent years.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

superteacher
09 July 2018 07:32:46

The end is nigh for this incredible spell. But that doesn't necessarily mean the end is nigh for our whole summer.
I do fear for August though, as they been pretty poor in recent years.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Still think the models are struggling with the LP positioning. Last night’s ECM showed itvstalling. When the breakdown is consistently shown at T120 I will believe it.

Solar Cycles
09 July 2018 08:20:10

 

Still think the models are struggling with the LP positioning. Last night’s ECM showed itvstalling. When the breakdown is consistently shown at T120 I will believe it.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Indeed, however the signal remains for an attempted breakdown of sorts come the middle of the month. The question is  will it actully happen and if so for how long before heights build favourably once more.

David M Porter
09 July 2018 08:26:26

The end is nigh for this incredible spell. But that doesn't necessarily mean the end is nigh for our whole summer.
I do fear for August though, as they been pretty poor in recent years.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Runs are always there to be broken though. How long is it since we last had a year ending in "8" which gave us a decent summer, that is before this one thus far?

Lenzie, Glasgow

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Ally Pally Snowman
09 July 2018 08:55:48

it does look like a breakdown of sorts starts about the 16th July. But only to a NW SE split temps still look above average in the south and very little rain. More rain for the NW though.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 09:02:40
We need these tests from time to time, to keep things interesting. It’s like a bit of a middle order wobble on the way towards the declaration.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
09 July 2018 09:21:06

Again looking good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Arcus
09 July 2018 09:24:22

Again looking good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

That's yesterday's 12z Gavin - today's 00z is not quite so good (more akin to yesterday's 00z):

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Hungry Tiger
09 July 2018 09:35:39

 

That's yesterday's 12z Gavin - today's 00z is not quite so good (more akin to yesterday's 00z):

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

That looks OK what you've flagged up there.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 09:40:03

 

That looks OK what you've flagged up there.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

With such a slack pressure pattern it's difficult to interpret the actual weather but that says to me warm/hot with isolated heavy slow moving showers.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

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Crepuscular Ray
09 July 2018 10:19:36
What do you think my chances are for a dry weekend in the Lakes 14/15th? UKMet would give me that but other models looking more threatening for Cumbria?
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

moomin75
09 July 2018 10:40:21
Has to be said, the 6z GFS looks pretty awful from next week onwards.

Very Autumnal dare I say.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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