Not really a case of "over and out" though is it?

I could handle a week of autumn - as long as there was a reload of the dry, sunny and warm/hot conditions for late July and through August.

Unless GFS, and the other models too for that matter, start to come up with runs like that on a consistent run-to-run basis then I won't be losing any sleep. I realised quite a long time ago that GFS sometimes has a tendency to go "off on one" and come up with what looks like a rather uninspiring set-up developing, and other people who are familiar with that model will also know this.

No need to panic yet!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Some real furnace runs in FI.

For me it seems inevitable we’ll have a pattern change of some sort, and that’s probably bad news for the North and West. The key though is rainfall. If the ground can stay dryish then it won’t take too much to return to warm sunny weather.

Critical week for the rest of the summer I think: which way will things go as the schools break up.

 Dont know about awful, but the model agreement suggests a pattern change next week, how long and how unsettled is  up for grabs. It is either going to be a blip or a slow deteriation into an unsettled spell.

Have to see in the next few days run to see if this going to be a major heatwave at some point.  No best summers in the past see only 32C as the highest so we still waiting for a real heatwave to strike.  Doesn't look much rain as well and they had been very poor lately with the rain spikes kept appearing in the short term for last 2 weeks now.

Drifting rather off topic but in 1976 there was something of a breakdown to more unsettled conditions in mid-July, especially for more northern areas. Had this forum existed back then I'm sure there would have been cries of 'summer's over' and 'typical, just in time for the school holidays'. But of course there was a reload later in the month and on into August. The rest as they say, is history.....

That is hot.

At 15C uppers?  Wonder how high on the ground surface as it been so dry now.  Hopefully more sunshine and dry heat this time round.

Yes i remember it well my holiday coincided with the cooler spell....by months end the heat was back with 30c most days until the end of august when after the apppontment of a minister for drought the heavens opened for august bank holiday heralding days of torrential rains.

Any sign of rain?

Exactly - that's all I care about!

I think very little for the SE in the next 2-3 weeks, probably some in the north next week but even this is uncertain.

Is that North as in north of Watford? 

Clearly the modelling of the T+120 to T+168 period is causing some problems with the influence of the N. Atlantic LP and the phasing of the ex-TP system into the Jet. Much to be resolved.

Anyway, for rain seekers it seems to me that Fri/Sat/Sun offers some shower potential in the midlands northward.

It's very unusual to see things so dry, with vegetation brown and dying in early July. Unusual and pretty horrible tbh. I've loved the sunny weather but a week or two of rain would be just the job.

I've been following the GFS precipitation charts for a while now, with every chance of rain that has showed up - with yesterday a good example of this with precipitation having been shown in 5 or 6 consecutive runs - coming to absolutely nothing. 

As you say the weekend offers a little bit of hope but I'll believe it when I see it. In fact as soon as any rain arrives I will be straight outside to stand in it.

 We are relying on Chris next week to deliver rain.

Certainly ECM is having none of the ex-tropical storm Chris, with Azores high resurgent by T240. 

I just wonder if the other models, particularly GFS, are just overplaying this decaying storm with regard to the jet?

Chris can take a hike!

We need the 00z runs to continue tonight’s positive trend. This morning’s runs didn’t back up yesterday’s 12z suites.

ECM this evening was an improvement on 0z, but GEM was horrific. UKMO mediocre. The rainfall spikes on the GFS ENS suggest to me that a wettish breakdown is nailed on now. Question is how and when can we get through the breakdown to the other side.

Nothing nailed on yet for much of england and wales according to helen willets they do not know yet how wet or how far south the rain gets.....

You must be reading different charts. GFS 12z was better than the 6z and UKMO 12z is a nice run.

The alleged breakdown is still not in the reliable timeframe, yet you talk like it’s already happening.