Some pretty chilly nights did for the CET I think. So all in all Junecwas pretty similar to last year, but drier.
That leaves us needing at least one of the next 2 months to be much warmer and drier than average for this to be a “very good” summer. We’re well behind June 1976, in line with June 2003 and ahead of June 1995.
Very much agree with that!
I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:
1) 1976 17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)
2) 1826 17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)
3) 1995 17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)
4) 2003 17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)
5) 2006 17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)
x) 2018 x (June 16.1, July GW 18.8 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)
Standout points of summers since 1976 are:
1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer.
2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C
3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.
4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.
What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.8C, it would only take an August figure of 16.8C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 16.9C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.5C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.
Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659.
Edited by user
02 July 2018 12:02:17
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Reason: Not specified
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