The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
27 June 2018 20:24:46

Next week

Staying sunny
Warm or even hot

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44637774

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I have just watched that and discovered just how different that forecast is to the one last night from the same BBC weather presenter which had the weather becoming more unsettled next week.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
27 June 2018 20:49:20

 

I have just watched that and discovered just how different that forecast is to the one last night from the same BBC weather presenter which had the weather becoming more unsettled next week.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Did last night's update flag up the possibility of hot weather continuing next week? That's what I would have done.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

johncs2016
27 June 2018 20:54:09

 

Did last night's update flag up the possibility of hot weather continuing next week? That's what I would have done.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't think it did as far as I can remember.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

moomin75
27 June 2018 21:00:26

 

Did last night's update flag up the possibility of hot weather continuing next week? That's what I would have done.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Absolutely not. The forecast was pretty dreadful with lots of rain and low pressure slap bang over the UK for much of the week.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

PFCSCOTTY
28 June 2018 06:38:02

Absolutely not. The forecast was pretty dreadful with lots of rain and low pressure slap bang over the UK for much of the week.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Yes it was and exactly the point I was trying to raise, following the afternoon runs the situation appeared to have changed and the experts on this forum and others were all saying that, however 5 or 6 hours later the BBC went out with England and Wales covered in Rain on sunday and next week unsettled...it doesn't make sense to me

Arcus
28 June 2018 07:13:32

 

Yes it was and exactly the point I was trying to raise, following the afternoon runs the situation appeared to have changed and the experts on this forum and others were all saying that, however 5 or 6 hours later the BBC went out with England and Wales covered in Rain on sunday and next week unsettled...it doesn't make sense to me

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 

I would pay more attention to the MetO's own extended video forecast than the BBC's. This was yesterday's:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/videos/5802643525001

The main theme being a continuation of warm/hot sunny weather for many areas, the chance of a thundery incursion (rather than breakdown) from the south, but a trend toward favouring a re-establishment of high pressure toward the end of the 10 day period.

 


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Brian Gaze
28 June 2018 07:31:08

Absolutely not. The forecast was pretty dreadful with lots of rain and low pressure slap bang over the UK for much of the week.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Makes you wonder how long it takes them to make and get a broadcast out after the senior forecaster has signed off on the solution. On websites we can push something out in minutes whereas on the Beeb my guess is the process takes hours.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
28 June 2018 20:47:13

Outlook

Less hot north UK
Humidity
Weekend thunderstorms
Warm/hot next week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44648148

Polar Low
28 June 2018 20:52:21

The bigger the organisation is the less efficient it is,company “politics” and ridiculous hse laws and procedures are not just restricted to governments.

 

quote=Brian Gaze;1011784]

 

Makes you wonder how long it takes them to make and get a broadcast out after the senior forecaster has signed off on the solution. On websites we can push something out in minutes whereas on the Beeb my guess is the process takes hours.

Arcus
28 June 2018 21:00:38

Outlook

Less hot north UK
Humidity
Weekend thunderstorms
Warm/hot next week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44648148

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Reminds me of the not-so-bright-kids copying the bright kids' homework. So sad that the BBC is so far behind now.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
29 June 2018 20:41:41

Into next weekend

Mainly dry and sunny
Very warm
Chance of thunderstorms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44664892

Gavin D
30 June 2018 10:46:49

UK weather forecast: Heatwave EXTENDED for a fortnight as balmy summer sunshine continues

THE summer heatwave has been extended for a further two weeks, with the UK set to bask in scorching sunshine and soaring temperatures today as calm conditions continue.

Weather experts are predicting two weeks of endless heat and sunshine, marking the longest heatwave since the historic summer of 1976. The weather phenomenon is caused by a so-called ‘omega block’, in which a large area of high pressure has become locked over the UK.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/981791/UK-weather-forecast-UK-heatwave-continues-fortnight-UK-sunshine-high-temperatures

UK weather warning: Britain set for FORTNIGHT of sun in longest heatwave for 40 YEARS

BRITAIN will roast in at least another fortnight of blistering sunshine amid predictions for the longest heatwave in more than four decades. Some forecasters are mooting the possibility of freakishly high temperatures holding out through the rest of summer.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/981631/uk-weather-forecast-hot-uk-heatwave-how-long-heatwave-last-met-office-long-range-forecast

Gavin D
30 June 2018 11:19:07

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 01 Jul 2018 06:00 to Mon 02 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 30 Jun 2018 08:56
Forecaster: TUSCHY

... W-France and SW-UK ...

A strong ridge is centered over SE/E France with slight weakening during the night. The general mid/upper flow turns more cyclonic betimes as the vortex over the Bay of Biscay drifts east. The low sends a marine air mass ashore over W/NW France which offsets meager mid-level lapse rates and results in 1-1.5 kJ/kg MLCAPE.

During the forenoon, a plume of elevated MUCAPE covers all of W-France and SW-UK with ongoing non-severe convection from the previous night. Graupel and wind gusts remain the main hazard. This activity, while spreading north, becomes partially surface based with an attendant increase of the gust potential (SW-UK and N-France due to a well mixed BL) and large hail (N-France only with 10-15 m/s DLS and a dry/deep subcloud layer).

Would not be surprised to see a few instances of dry thunderstorms over S-UK with thin and high based CAPE profiles in the graupel layer and a dry and deeply mixed subcloud layer. Erratic wind gusts and lightning would worsen any ongoing and potentially resulting fire risk.

For SW / CNTRL France this energy remains capped during the day although we don't want to rule out spotty mountainous convection. In case an updraft manages to survive entrainment, 10-15 m/s DLS would favor temporarily orgnized thunderstorms with isolated large hail.

Thunderstorm probabilities increase substantially over SW/W France beyond sunset, as an mid-level wave approaches from the SW. Accompanying stronger mid-level flow brings DLS in the 15-20 m/s range with MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Elevated nature should limit the severe risk to large hail during initiation with more of an heavy rainfall threat as convection grows upscale into a large overnight cluster over W/NW France. We expanded the lightning areas towards CNTRL France as this system pushes an outflow boundary to the east. Interaction with the orography could help to spark a few thunderstorms with a low end hail and wind gust threat.

The level 1 areas cover the region with augmented severe (especially large hail). Outside the level 1 but inside the high probabilitity lightning area, isolated hail and wind gust events are also possible, but too isolated for an upgrade.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018070206_201806300856_1_stormforecast.xml

Rob K
30 June 2018 17:40:02

According to Sky News the Met Office has issued its “first ever” thunderstorm warning for tomorrow night. No idea what they are on about!

 

The Met Office has issued its first ever thunderstorm warning with torrential rain, hail and lightning possible this weekend.
The yellow "be aware" warning for South West England and South Wales and will be in effect from 6am to 10pm on Sunday.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
30 June 2018 18:06:06

According to Sky News the Met Office has issued its “first ever” thunderstorm warning for tomorrow night. No idea what they are on about!

 

The Met Office has issued its first ever thunderstorm warning with torrential rain, hail and lightning possible this weekend.
The yellow "be aware" warning for South West England and South Wales and will be in effect from 6am to 10pm on Sunday.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

See the Convection thread - I mentioned this earlier. Every warning previously that has covered thunderstorms has always been for "Rain".


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Rob K
30 June 2018 18:36:05
Ah, wondered after I posted whether that might be the case. Thanks for the clarification.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

bledur
30 June 2018 19:05:36

Hot in Chicago too.

WEATHER

Chicago Weather: Excessive Heat Warning in effect for area as heat wave continues 

 

 

People are being warned to stay smart and stay cool, but there's still a lot going on this weekend outside.

 

 

By 

Updated 1 hr 56 mins ago

CHICAGO (WLS) --

People are being warned to stay smart and stay cool, but there's still a lot going on this weekend outside.

The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning which is in effect for Cook County until 7 p.m. Sunday and until 10 p.m. Saturday for surrounding counties.

Saturday's high is forecast to be 98, one short of the record of 99 and peak heat index readings are expected to top 105 degrees. On Friday, the high was 96 degrees, one degree short of the record of 97 degrees.

Jiries
30 June 2018 20:14:23
Toronto will see 36 this weekend too and staying over 32 everyday.
Gavin D
02 July 2018 07:46:32

Further ahead

Mainly dry and sunny
Very warm
Chance of thunderstorms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44668712

Gavin D
02 July 2018 11:01:52
Philip Avery has left BBC weather

moomin75
02 July 2018 12:05:58

Philip Avery has left BBC weather

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Of course he has. Slowly but surely they are getting rid of all the proper forecasters and replacing them with empty headed and vacuous presenters who know nothing about meteorology but suit the BBC's dumbing down policy.

 

Proper forecaster Philip. Another who will be missed.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Arcus
02 July 2018 12:27:30

Of course he has. Slowly but surely they are getting rid of all the proper forecasters and replacing them with empty headed and vacuous presenters who know nothing about meteorology but suit the BBC's dumbing down policy.

 

Proper forecaster Philip. Another who will be missed.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

He also probably got sick of trying to give a forecast in front of graphics that for a shower the size of Guildford show a fuzzy blob the size of SE England.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
02 July 2018 13:18:43
Sunshine and little rain to last another FOUR WEEKS

UK weather forecast: Temperatures to soar for next four weeks

Fears of vegetable shortages, hosepipe bans and forest fires as hot temperatures and no rain to stay for the next four weeks.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-forecast-shows-hot-temperatures-throughout-july-11423537?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter 

Brian Gaze
02 July 2018 13:21:53

Interest in this heatwave has soared in the last few days. People are beginning to think that something historic is unfolding and it's not simply media hype. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

SnowJon
02 July 2018 13:48:16

https://twitter.com/WeatherCee/status/1013774702731546624

June 2018 is officially the hottest June ever recorded in Northern Ireland 


Bangor, Co Down

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