I know that we all like to see some decent summer weather but to be honest, I would actually be happy now if there WAS some significant rain in the forecast because I'm sick and tired now of seeing this same old weather pattern all the time and constantly seeing the models tell us one minute that things might actually change, only to then backtrack away from that.

More importantly, I'm sick and and tired of the effect that this is having on our increasingly parched land because when it comes to seeing these very sad stories which I'm hearing about dead fish being pulled out of rivers which have completely dried up due to the tinder dry conditions, that has to be taken very seriously indeed.

All I want to see is to get some greenness back into the land so that life and nature can flourish once again because at the end of the day, that is our planet is supposed to be designed for. Once that happen, then I can get back to enjoying any decent summer weather which comes our way.

The way that this is going, is making me realise that there was a time when the weather used to be interesting because you didn't actually know what the weather would be like from one day to the next. Sadly, this summer hasn't been like that and to me, it just all getting a bit boring now.

Met Office don't seem to be going for that 

Monday:

Fresher, drier conditions spreading into Scotland and Northern Ireland. Hit-and-miss showers for western England and Wales. Elsewhere sunny and warm, risk of a thundery shower in the east later.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

A fresher feel than of late, with hit-and-miss showers in many parts, which could turn heavy especially on Tuesday. Fewer showers by Thursday.

Updated: 02:10 on Sun 15 Jul 2018 BST

UK Outlook for Friday 20 Jul 2018 to Sunday 29 Jul 2018:

After a mostly dry and bright start, cloud and outbreaks of rain are possible across northwestern parts on Friday. Central and southeastern areas will be very warm again, but cloud will tend to increase during the day and a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain may develop, perhaps heavy and thundery across the southeast. By Saturday any rain in the north will probably be replaced by sunshine and showers, while further south, warm sunshine is likely. Dry, fine and warm weather will predominate in the south throughout the following week, though occasional showers remain possible, perhaps including thunder and lightning. It will be more changeable and breezy further north with outbreaks of rain or showers at times, but there will also be some drier, warmer and sunny spells.

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jul 2018 to Monday 13 Aug 2018:

There are limited indications of the weather expected in August. In general, southeastern parts are more likely to have dry and warm or very warm weather, though showers are likely at times, and perhaps some thundery episodes. Further northwest, fine weather will probably last for shorter periods and changeable breezier weather may dominate, though even here temperatures are likely to be warmer than the August average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Often warm, occasionally hot. Showers at times.

Saturday 14 July—Sunday 22 July

Turning less hot. Occasional rain

Much of England and Wales will have another largely fine and very warm weekend with plenty of sunshine. Winds will be mostly gentle too. Decidedly hot in the southeast and East Anglia with highs into the low 30s Celsius.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier at times with rainfall for some, mainly over northwestern parts. Warm sunshine likely for eastern and southern Scotland.

Through the first half of the new week a band of showery rain will make its way southeastwards across England and Wales before giving way to drier and brighter weather from the northwest.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will have sunshine at times together with some well-scattered showers. After a muggy start to the week in the southeast, much of the UK will become fresher for a time albeit with temperatures still near or slightly above normal for this time of year.

Through the second half of the week, temperatures may start to climb again briefly before a band of wetter and less warm weather spreads from the northwest. Indeed, all areas could experience some useful rainfall for a day or two.

Monday 23 July—Sunday 29 July

Often warm but showers at times.

Through the last full week of July, much of the UK is likely to experience rather mixed weather conditions.

Rainfall amounts are likely to be higher than in recent weeks with showers at times and some useful rainfall for gardeners.

The reason for this change in weather is that areas of low pressure look more likely to extend southwards across the UK at times while high pressure moves further away to the east.

There should also be some drier and sunnier interludes for most and temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above the July average.

Despite some rainfall at times, it is likely to be rather warm. There is the chance of a couple of hotter days mixed in for central and southeastern areas of England.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are unlikely to see a return to the very high temperatures experienced in late June.

Monday 30 July—Sunday 12 August

Showery at times but warm

A warm outlook as we move in to the early part of August with temperatures often close to or above what you'd expect at this time of year.

With areas of low pressure closer to the UK than they have been in recent weeks, showers are expected at times with occasional longer outbreaks of rain also possible. There should also be some fine and sunnier days.

The focus of the showers is most likely over western parts of the UK while eastern areas are favoured to have fewer showers and some lengthier dry periods of weather.

Short periods of very warm or hot weather are expected over central and southeastern England with heat occasionally spreading from the near-continent.

Uncertainty remains over how much rain we are likely to see but overall, near-normal amounts seen most likely for much of the UK with western and southwestern areas having the greatest chance of seeing above average rainfall for August.

Next Update

What will the weather bring for the rest of the school summer holidays?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Not much sign of rain between now and Thursday in southern counties. A few showers and that's probably it. Possibly a greater chance towards the end of the week but I wouldn't count on that either. That's my take but the broadcast forecasts seem to have been suggesting something quite different. 

UK Outlook for Saturday 21 Jul 2018 to Monday 30 Jul 2018:

On Saturday and Sunday the north of the UK may have cloudier and breezier conditions with some outbreaks of rain or showers, while further south there will be a good deal of dry and fine weather, with a good deal of sunshine in the south. Temperatures will be warm for many, possibly very warm in the south by Sunday and becoming rather humid, especially at night. Through the following week generally fine and very warm weather will predominate in the south, but always with the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Further north it may be more changeable and breezy with outbreaks of rain or showers at times. Temperatures probably staying on the warm side in the north, but very warm and perhaps hot at times in the south.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jul 2018 to Tuesday 14 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that there will be a continuing northwest / southeast split in the weather. Southeastern parts are most likely to see periods of dry and warm weather, with brief interludes of more showery conditions. Some very warm or hot spells could develop in the south at times, but these would bring an increased risk of thunderstorms. Meanwhile further northwest, any settled weather will probably be shorter lived, with rain or showers at times, but also some drier and sunnier spells. Temperatures are expected to continue above average, with some warm or very warm spells possible outside of any persistent showers or rain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Weekend

Mainly dry
Warm

Next week

Often dry
Rain most likely in the NW
Turning hot again in south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44854552

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jul 2018 to Tuesday 31 Jul 2018:

On Sunday and Monday the northwest of the UK is likely to see cloudier conditions with some rain and drizzle at times, especially in the west. Further south there'll be a good deal of dry and often sunny weather, although there may also be the odd thundery shower. Most places will be warm and increasingly humid, but the south and parts of the east and northeast will become very warm. Through the rest of the month dry weather predominates in the south and southeast , but always with the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Further north and west it may be more changeable and breezy with some outbreaks of rain or showers. Temperatures generally warm or very warm, with hot or very hot conditions possibly developing in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Aug 2018 to Wednesday 15 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will only be very slow moving. The west and northwest are likely to see more in the way of breezier, cloudier conditions with some rain or showers at times, with these occasionally affecting other areas. Elsewhere, especially further east and southeast, drier and more settled weather is expected to dominate, although with the ongoing risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures generally remaining above average for most, with the potential for further spells of very warm or hot conditions, and possibly very hot at times in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be nearer normal at times in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Next week

Often dry and very warm
Risk of thunderstorms
Some rain in the NW
Perhaps turning hot?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44867509

Thunderstorm yellow warning for friday

What models are Meteogroup looking at? Very surprising development.

 I just seen that and he actually said localised thunderstorms giving high rainfall totals, not a generally wet day. There is now a M.O warning out.

 It is not a surprising development as that scenario was forecast several days ago by Chris Fawkes only in the more recent forecasts they seem to have forgotten that.. 

i daresay most places will see nothing. They obviously have to cover themselves.

The text of the warning itself says that "Most places will be dry", so if he really said that then it's pretty misleading.

The perils of not looking at your graphics - Chris Fawkes on News.

"Temperatures on the rise further Sunday to Monday"

Standing in front of a graphic that shows Sunday and Monday as:

Edinburgh 21/21

Belfast 23/22

Cardiff 26/25

London 30/30

Oh well. In other news inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.4% in July...

Interesting article about buried landscape features made more visible by the drought. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44767497

The brilliant John Hammond on his Weathertrending site is predicting a sudden and wet end to the heatwave soon. 

In fact he's pretty much forecasting a washout August and much lower temperatures.

Summer is over.. again.

i find it hard to believe that someone with his experience would forecast a washout August against so much evidence to the contrary.

i used to think John Hammond was a great forecaster but he’s just attention seeking with headlines like that. I’m not even going to look to see what his rationale is.

John Hammonds updated blog

• Another burst of heat 
• Extreme temperatures unlikely
• Wetter August

https://weathertrending.com/2018/07/20/john-hammonds-month-ahead-heatwave-hype-end-sight/

It's all just click bait. Interesting how on June 8th he said "payback time is about to arrive!" with a headline of "John Hammond’s Month Ahead – Summer’s about to change". Yawn.

https://weathertrending.com/2018/06/08/summer-change/ 

He will be right eventually of course but at the moment, it's just more about how best to stand out when everyone else is forecasting a heatwave going into August.