BBC monthly outlook

Monday 25 June—Sunday 1 July

Sunny and warm, with high pressure dominating

For much of the week, high pressure is expected to remain near-stationary across the UK. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, sunny and increasingly warm; maximum temperatures will widely reach the mid to high 20s Celsius, with areas just to the west of London perhaps soaring close to 30 degrees. During the latter half of the week, high pressure may move into the North Sea, bringing a subtle easterly breeze for southern England, and preventing temperatures from rising as high along the North Sea coast. Elsewhere, temperatures will be at least as high as earlier in the week, and the dry, sunny theme will continue too. By the weekend, high pressure will edge to the north of the UK. An easterly airflow is expected to become established more widely across the country, and it will continue to be very warm or locally hot, with lots of sunshine and further dry weather. However, there are some indications for lower pressure to edge towards the UK from France, potentially bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of the country.

Monday 2 July—Sunday 8 July

High pressure not relinquishing its grip!

The first full week of July will continue to see high pressure dominating across the UK and most of northwest Europe. The main expectations are for high pressure to ridge towards the UK from the southwest, continuing the dry and often sunny conditions experienced during the previous week. Temperatures will remain well above average for all areas, although, once again, eastern coasts of England may be much cooler, due to an onshore flow preventing temperatures from rising significantly. Much of the country should see high temperatures in the mid to high-20s Celsius, with a good chance of locations in southern England nudging 30 degrees once again. Often gentle winds are expected, especially in the north, with easterly winds perhaps giving some breezier days across southern Britain. Some forecasting models indicate a 10-15% risk that high pressure could slide more to the southeast of the UK, allowing an even hotter south or southeasterly airflow to move across the UK. By the end of the week, there is small risk that cooler north-westerly or westerly flows could move across the UK, with high pressure remaining to the south, a scenario which would allow near-normal temperatures and some welcome rainfall.

Monday 9 July—Sunday 22 July

Often sunny and warm, with little rain in sight!

Into the second week of July, there are currently few indications to suggest much will change. Indeed, high pressure still looks like dominating the weather for the UK and much of northwest Europe. Therefore, often dry and sunny weather can still be expected, with temperatures still likely to remain well above the average for most. Slightly cooler conditions may develop for Scotland, as cooler westerly flows from the Atlantic move onshore at times, these may bring some welcome spells of rain too.
Looking towards the middle of July, there is more uncertainty regarding the positioning of high pressure, with the best indications suggesting it will remain just to the north of the UK, which would keep conditions largely dry and warm. However, there is a 25-30% risk that low pressure will become more predominant to the north and west of the UK, a scenario which would bring cool and often windy conditions, with above-average rainfall.

Next Update

How long into July can high pressure maintain such a firm grasp on the Great British Summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I've just seen this report where our own local reporters here in Edinburgh appear to be quite confident about our outlook for the next couple of days.

Given that this is one of the few parts of the UK to have had anything like average rainfall during this month so far (and has therefore been one of the wettest parts of the UK during this month as a result), those two weeks of sunshine which is being indicated there would be very welcome in these parts if such a forecast ends up being correct.

Warm to hot ECM 850s 10c - 16c for the next 10 days. 30c should happen somewhere at some point. Cloud could be an issue though as high isn't in perfect position .

If that ends up being the case, then we could end up doing really well during the week ahead which would be nothing more than what we deserve anyway since we did miss out on that quite a lot during the early part of the month when we were under those easterlies with the west of Scotland getting all of the decent weather.

Surprised to see the forecast going for 30C here tomorrow while the uppers still 10C so that a record 20C range if that happen then high 20's when the graph show 15C uppers.

Changes in humidity. The lower it is, the greater the temperature range can be. 

It's very low today but increases by midweek, hence the maximums drop a bit despite the 850s rising.

Having said that, the NE flow should result in locations in the far south to the west of Southampton seeing their highest temps of the working week on Thursday as opposed to today.

Those uppers are only one part of a complex equation. One that often leaves my head spinning .

If it was clear from dawn till dusk then it would be 17.9 hours (sunrise 4:14, sunset 10:08, equals 17 hours 54 minutes).

Fresher but still warm with a risk of thunderstorms in places as the Jet tracks more southerly in the longer term would be a summarynof the forecast. You can see it here yourself https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44623459 

I assume Meteogroup must use GFS predominantly.

I thought they tended to use ECM?

Why is it bbc seem to be way behind the latest models, or is that a likely outcome?

BBC have toned down the rain a lot for the change now. Now showing a slow temperature drop for here to 20C with just a bit of rain on Wednesday. They had us down for 4 days of rain previously. We could actually do with a bit of rain though but at the same time, I hope it is just a small blip as looking more likely now!

The bad part of all this is the wild fires and people affected by them. Saddleworth fire have just declared the moors fire a major incident and homes are being evacuated.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/moorland-fire-saddleworth-tameside-live-14824416

It make us feel we are in California fire zones now.  It seem the ground up north are not used to tinder dry conditions compare to the SE that we get tinder dry but never had fires lit up.

Looks like that forecast outdated even before he spoke!

Next week

Staying sunny
Warm or even hot

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44637774

yes complete turnaround on last nights abysmal effort that was put out....once again the amateurs on here, appear at this stage to outdo the efforts of the professionals and all of their extra data, that they apparently access...they always seem to be behind the game!