I wouldn't mind August 2004 actually. Plenty of thunderstorms that month - and it was warm at least. 

I agree. Flooding could become a major issue before we know it. It is an unusual synoptic but certainly not a settled one.

Gav P's latest vid today , with European anomaly's looks like Eastern Europe best for settled warm weather. 

What is the source of this unstable atmosphere?

To what I'm getting at, for example, in a typical Atlantic low pressure in UK in summer, the Polar Maritime or Returning Polar Maritime from Greenland is the source of unstable air flowing over strongly heated land generating convection, but what about in this current synopsis? 

Thanks 

Just scanned the output.

Yes sometime cloudy, and yes the risk of thunderstorms at times, but the headline really is high pressure domination and warm temps continuing, as far as the eye can see.

If anything high pressure becomes more dominant in the medium range, not less.

Up here in NW England this is now an exceptional spell of dry, warm and settled weather, especially given we have missed all the storms over the BH weekend. 

Nice.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

Nice, but the GFS ensembles are looking less flat-lined this morning with more signs of a cooldown midmonth

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

That's pretty much how I see it as well, Joe. Let's hope the theme remains the same going forward, even if it does turn a little cooler eventually. As long as it is dry, bright and reasonably warm, I won't be complaining.

I would not be surprised if the Atlantic influence pushes in for a short time early to mid June, not often we dont get a little European monsoon even if it is only a few days . It would be quite refreshing as it is as humid for an extended period as i have ever known in May.

The jet stream is so far North at the moment: too far in some ways, allowing flabby lies to develop across France, so I wonder whether a little bit more Westerly movement might actually help things in the South - shift the humidity, rain and cloud.

Still good.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

Apologies if this has already been covered, but has anyone else noticed the GFS op modeled minimum and maximum temperatures are the same, for all four of the 6 -hour sessions? There certainly used to be a reasonable difference between them.

GFS 12z continues the trend of a significant breakdown in the weather starting around the 9th. My hunch for June is warm first 3rd of the month cooler unsettled middle third then hot and humid final third.

Looks like yet another shockingly bad June coming up. Reminiscent of early June 2007 with a continuation of the anticyclonic easterlies/north easterlies which have already overstayed their welcome.

This weekend looks a write-off then when the anticylonic easterly muck departs at the end of next week we end up with cyclonic easterly muck and write-off weekend #2

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

Horrible, depressing stuff. What happened to a normal westerly pattern? Prior to 2007 it used to be rare for June to record under 150 hours sun. Now it's the norm 

A green dollop is a bad sign. No green dollop on this.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

A lovely chart from my point of view - a nice big trough, strong enough to show up on the mean. That can only mean one thing - the European Monsoon is trying to set up, albeit weaker than normal.

Form horse ;)

To all you east coasters moaning about the murk - it’s nice here in the west and we usually get more than our fair share of crap weather in the spring and summer months.

Please, for us, put up with it for a little bit longer ;-) 

The enduring feature of the weather in our neck of the woods these past few weeks has been the absence of the jetstream driving Atlantic fronts eastwards. The resulting weather has been better in the west than in the east of these islands.

Being a solar cycle watcher, I think we are seeing the effects of an early solar minimum, which for some reason has an effect on blocking patterns and the strength of the jetstream. We are in a meridional pattern instead of a zonal pattern for the foreseeable I think.