The first half of the month brought a lot of dry weather and the Central England Temperature (CET) was close to 1C above the average. Mid month brought more unsettled weather. Will this continue as we head towards the Spring (or Whitsun) Bank Holiday which is on 29th May this year?
In the short term the weather is set to turn dry and increasingly warm. Temperatures by the middle of the week will probably be reaching the mid 20Cs. As we head towards the Bank Holiday weekend the uncertainty increases, and at this range it is not possible to be confident about the forecast details. The latest guidance from ensemble models suggests the risk of heavy and thundery showers will increase through the weekend.
The postage stamp plot below shows the rainfall forecast from each of the individual GEFS06z (21/05 run) ensemble model runs at 18:00 on Monday 29th May. There is a quite a split with similar numbers indicating dry and wet weather. On balance they favour dry periods in the south and east, with wet weather more probable in the north west. However quite a few runs show heavy rain / showers in the south.
The weather outlook for the late May Bank Holiday weekend is uncertain. In general terms the risk of heavy showers is expected to increase during the the three day period. Nonetheless there is the potential for some very warm and sunny weather, especially early on, and there is a reasonable chance of it lasting through the period.
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