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Storm Doris

High impact weather


21/02/2017

The UK Met Office has named Thursday's low pressure area Storm Doris. The system is expected to bring high impact weather with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain in parts of the UK. Snow is an additional hazard for upland areas in Scotland. 

At this stage computer models have not pinned down the exact track Storm Doris will take and how intense it will become. However, there is a high level of confidence in the general picture. 

Damaging wind gusts

This morning's Meteo France Arpege 00z computer model run shows wind speeds gusts peaking at over 80mph in northern England on Thursday morning and in the early part of the afternoon. In southern counties peak gusts are between 50mph and 60mph. 

Meteo France Arpege 00z forecast wind gusts Storm Doris

 

The American NCEP GFS 06z model shows a slightly less severe scenario. The strongest winds on Thursday morning affect northern England with gusts peaking at just over 70mph. If this is correct there is still the likelihood of travel disruption and the possibility of some damage. 

GFS 06z forecast wind gusts  Storm Doris

 

Heavy rain and snow

In addition to the strong winds a band of rain will be sweeping southeastwards on Thursday morning. Some heavy bursts of rain are probable but clearer conditions should return by the early afternoon. In Scotland heavy rain is expected in the morning, and over high ground it will be cold enough for snow with blizzard conditions possible. The GFS 06z precipitation type forecast chart below is for 06:00GMT on Thursday. The speckled areas indicate snow with the purple shading highlighting the heaviest outbreaks. Green and yellow shading highlight the heaviest rain.

  

GFS 06z precipitation type Storm Doris

Summary

Storm Doris is expected to bring high impact weather to large parts of the UK on Thursday 23rd February. At the moment computer models suggest:

1) Maximum wind gusts of between 70mph and 85mph in northern Wales, northern central England and northern England

2) Maximum wind gusts of between 50mph and 60mph in southern Wales, central southern England and southern England

3) A band of rain with heavy bursts mixed in sweeping southeastwards

4) Heavy rain in Scotland with blizzard conditions over high ground

The details of Storm Doris are still subject to change and this summary is based on the 00z Arpege and GFS computer model runs on 21/02/2017. For more updates follow @TWOweather on Twitter.

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