Yes, not far off the old November average now, and pushing over 7c.  This may be the highpoint.  Where will it settle though???

Somewhere close to 6.8c or 6.9c I would have thought after a dip back to 6.5c for a time this week. 

It all depends where the high pressure cell sits. Cold nights will ensue in the CET area if the sits further south. Nights will be considerably milder should it sit further north with a moderate easterly breeze blowing throughout.

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Met Office Hadley               7.1c.            Anomaly          -0.1c.Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                            6.51c.          Anomaly          -0.41c.

Netweather                         7.12c.          Anomaly           0.41c.

 

Peasedown St  John           7.7c.              Anomaly           -0.5c.    

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Met Office Hadley              6.9c.            Anomaly         -0.2c.    Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                           6.34c.          Anomaly           -0.58c.

Netweather                        6.97c.          Anomaly            0.08c.

 

Peasedown St John         7.5c.          Anomaly          -0.7c.  

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My CET calculations are currently around 0.75C lower than the Hadley figures. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month. May not be quite as much as my figures suggest but it should be a sizeable adjustment.

Despite the output currently suggesting the final week of the month will be slightly above average (I am not sure that will verify) I still calculate the CET will finish only just above 6C at 6.16C.

My CET calculations are currently around 0.75C lower than the Hadley figures. So expect a very large downward adjustment this month. May not be quite as much as my figures suggest but it should be a sizeable adjustment.

Despite the output currently suggesting the final week of the month will be slightly above average (I am not sure that will verify) I still calculate the CET will finish only just above 6C at 6.16C.

Its turning out to be quite a chilly month - that's for sure.

 

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Met Office Hadley             6.8c.         Anomaly          -0.3c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                          6.25c.       Anomaly          -0.68c.

Netweather                       6.82c.       Anomaly          -0.09c.

 

Peasedown St John       7.3c.        Anomaly           -0.9c.              

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Met Office Hadley           6.6c,            Anomaly         -0.3c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                        6.16c.          Anomaly         -0.76c.

Netweather                     6.77c.          Anomaly         -0.14c.

 

Peasedown St John      7.2c.         Anomaly           -1.0c.     

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Met Office Hadley          6.5c.          Anomaly       -0.4c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       6.23c.        Anomaly       -0.70c.

Netweather                    6.8c.          Anomaly       -0.11c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.1c.     Anomaly   -1.1c.      

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I did think the provisional CET seemed a bit high given that I have a local mean of 6.4*C up to 21st (rising to 6.5*C today).

The predicted temperatures have adjusted downward by a few degrees for a number of the overnights in the period Wed-Sun. Then we have a notably colder outcome for Tue-Wed in prospect than was looking to be the case, thanks to a continental cold feed.

I've not had time to try and estimate for the CET itself, but for my local mean it looks like it will drop around 0.4*C based on the latest GFS run. 

A provisional CET of around 6.1*C looks achievable, with the final value in the high-5s. I could live with that 

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Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly       -0.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                    6.22c.   Anomaly       -0.70c.

Netweather                 6.82c.   Anomaly       -0.09c.

 

Peasedown St John   7.1c.     Anomaly     -1.1c.

 

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Met Office Hadley     6.5c.    Anomaly    -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                  6.27c.  Anomaly     -0.65c.

Netweather               6.84c.  Anomaly     -0.07c.

 

Peasedown St John   7.1c.    Anomaly   -1.1c.          

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Going to be interesting to see whether the CET flat-lines at 6.5 for a few more days before taking a slight tumble at the end. Could end up between 6.1 and 6.4 I reckon.

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Met Office Hadley         6.5c.    Anomaly   -0.3c.  Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                      6.25c.   Anomaly   -0.67c.

Netweather                   6.86c.   Anomaly   -0.05c.

 

Peasedown St John      7.1c.     Anomaly   -1.1c. 

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Probably a 5.8c to 6.0c finish now. Anticyclonic conditions will bring sub zero night time temperatures and a resultant fall in CET.

With 6.9c I have blown myself out of contention. 

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Probably a 5.8c to 6.0c finish now. Anticyclonic conditions will bring sub zero night time temperatures and a resultant fall in CET.

With 6.9c I have blown myself out of contention. 

I reckon it will end up around 6.25, so you and many others are still in contention, especially as December is going to be hard to predict with much confidence.

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It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

I think it's the lack of a memorable cold episode that makes this year seem less than dramatic even with the low CET values. Here in southern England, the Novembers of 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2010 stick in my mind as they all brought notable cold snaps and some early snowfalls. This year has been very much in the "consistently cool but unspectacular " category. 1998 was in a similar vein IIRC

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

Here on Dartmoor we've seen no frost and no snow. In the past November frost & snow was not unusual here - I recall a November (73?) with a heavy mid month fall of snow, hard frost and several days with snow cover. So, I guess, its been less cold here than elsewhere this month.

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It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

November must be heading for being a very dry one The other redeeming feature is that it seems to have been a  sunny month though I don't know exact figures.

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.22c.   Anomaly      -0.70c.

Netweather                6.85c.   Anomaly      -0.06c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.     Anomaly      -0.1c.        

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