The Weather Outlook

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Global Warming
25 November 2016 23:18:25

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

Spring Sun Winter Dread
26 November 2016 10:44:52
I think it's the lack of a memorable cold episode that makes this year seem less than dramatic even with the low CET values. Here in southern England, the Novembers of 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2010 stick in my mind as they all brought notable cold snaps and some early snowfalls. This year has been very much in the "consistently cool but unspectacular " category. 1998 was in a similar vein IIRC
Devonian
26 November 2016 10:50:33

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Here on Dartmoor we've seen no frost and no snow. In the past November frost & snow was not unusual here - I recall a November (73?) with a heavy mid month fall of snow, hard frost and several days with snow cover. So, I guess, its been less cold here than elsewhere this month.

roger63
26 November 2016 11:13:42

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

November must be heading for being a very dry one The other redeeming feature is that it seems to have been a  sunny month though I don't know exact figures.

ARTzeman
26 November 2016 12:37:40

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.22c.   Anomaly      -0.70c.

Netweather                6.85c.   Anomaly      -0.06c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.     Anomaly      -0.1c.        



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Whether Idle
26 November 2016 13:39:56

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.22c.   Anomaly      -0.70c.

Netweather                6.85c.   Anomaly      -0.06c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.     Anomaly      -0.1c.        

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Flatline CET,laughing though it will tumble a bit over 28-30 November.  I don't think it will finish below 6. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin P
26 November 2016 16:35:08

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Hi GW,

I've been rather surprised that the provisional CET has been holding up so well because it has felt like quite a cold month to me.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

ARTzeman
27 November 2016 14:11:40

Met Office Hadley       6.4c.    Anomaly   -0.3c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                    6.16c.   Anomaly   -0.76c.

Netweather                 6.75c.   Anomaly   -0.16c.

 

Peasedown St John    7.0c.     Anomaly    -1.2c.     



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2016 20:41:11

It's a bit lower than I'd like and I can't see it going up. Never mind. 

I know it's pm predictions again for December but I'll wait until the thread opens with details of December averages. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Twister
28 November 2016 09:56:51
Could be some particularly low CET returns for the last 3 days of November with some severe frosts on the cards. Possibly daily CETs close to freezing on the cards?
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

ARTzeman
28 November 2016 12:22:06

Met Office Hadley       6.3c.    Anomaly    -0.3c.

Metcheck                    6.14c.  Anomaly    -0.78c.

Netweather                 6.74c.  Anomaly    -0.17c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.   Anomaly    -1.2c.

  



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
29 November 2016 14:56:48

Met Office Hadley        6.3c.    Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                     5.98c.   Anomaly    -0.94c.

Netweather                  6.69c.   Anomaly    -0.22c.

 

Peasedown St John      6.9c.    Anomaly     -1.3c. 



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Essan
29 November 2016 17:30:22

Could be some particularly low CET returns for the last 3 days of November with some severe frosts on the cards. Possibly daily CETs close to freezing on the cards?

Originally Posted by: Twister 



I had a simple mean of 0.00c today - Pershore will certainly have been quite a bit lower than that

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

ARTzeman
30 November 2016 12:13:43

Met Office Hadley      6.2c.    Anomaly      -0.3c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                   5.80c.   Anomaly     -1.12c.

Netweather                6.48c.   Anomaly     -0.43c.

 

Peasedown St John    6.7c. Anomaly      -1.7c.

 



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Foghorn
30 November 2016 22:26:36
Milfield, Northumberland: 4.1c, anomaly -2.6c. Coldest month in 3 years of obs.
Global Warming
30 November 2016 22:34:33

My calculations give a final figure of 5.49C. That might turn out to be a bit low but it has been a cold month, potentially around 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean.

Darren S
30 November 2016 23:46:04

My calculations give a final figure of 5.49C. That might turn out to be a bit low but it has been a cold month, potentially around 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

That would mean that all bar one person guessed way too high! Well done to Stormchaser. There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Gavin D
01 December 2016 11:51:20
Stormchaser
01 December 2016 12:05:46

That would mean that all bar one person guessed way too high! Well done to Stormchaser. There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Well, I was almost closest - but thanks anyway!

Unless of course the precise figure turns out to be 5.55*C in which case it will be a four-way tie 

 

A number of the long-range models got it very wrong this month, predicting above-average temps. Glad I ignored them in favour of the hints of blocking working out okay for cold surface conditions.

Still a fair bit of luck involved in landing it close, of course!

 

1962 had a Nov CET of 5.5... 

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

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Saint Snow
01 December 2016 12:06:15

There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

 

Don't say that (given what my Dec CET guess is)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Bolty
01 December 2016 12:15:38

Believe it or not, for my side of Manchester, November 2016 has actually finished with an average colder than that of November 2010.

November 2010: 4.65C
November 2016: 4.55C

Must be due to the Failsworth frost hollow allowing some cold nights to occur.

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Twister
01 December 2016 14:00:58
Well well well - that could shake the CET table up a bit!
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

The Professional
01 December 2016 16:24:59

 

Well, I was almost closest - but thanks anyway!

Unless of course the precise figure turns out to be 5.55*C in which case it will be a four-way tie 

 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

Funnily enough, the final answer was 5.55, so congrats to the four of you!

springsunshine
01 December 2016 16:26:16

Yep,thats me out of the running now! Its quite remarkable how the cet has dropped over 10c in 2 months,just goes to show how this autumn(October&November) has been so so different to the usual uk fare during this period.Its been a long time since the previous one like this.

 

Andy J
01 December 2016 16:56:37

And November 2016 has turned out 4C colder than both November and December 2015.  It also looks like November 2016 has been the second coldest one of the century so far, behind only 2010.

Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.

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