As we are in with a good chance of a record CET this year I thought it was time to set up a tracker for the annual CET to see how we are doing.
The chart below shows the annual CET tracker from 16 Sept through to the end of the year. I have included all years where the CET finished at 10.50C or above and also years where the CET at the end of Sept, Oct or Nov was in the top handful of years. So for example this includes 1846 (the yellow line) which has the highest CET on record to the end of September but dips well out of contention by the end of the year due to a cold finish.
As of 25 Sept 2014 is in fourth place in the rankings behind 1846, 1990 and also just behind 2003 but just ahead of 1779. 2014 is the white line.
Based on current projections the 2014 CET could be at 11.68C by 30 Sept following a relatively warm final few days of the month. This would leave us in 2nd place at the end of the month just behind 1846. The figures below are based on the average daily CET means (the figures I quoted earlier in the thread were just simple averages of each monthly figure which is less accurate as of course not all months have the same number of days).
1846 11.70C
2014 11.68C prov.
1779 11.67C
1990 11.64C
The top 6 annual CET means for reference (again using daily CET means) are:
2006 10.86C
2011 10.71C
1990 10.66C
1999 10.66C
1949 10.64C
2002 10.62C
2006 was quite a remarkable year because even at 15 Sept it was third coolest of all the years in the chart. This is partly due to the cool first 3 months of the year. By contrast the final 4 months of 2006 were incredibly warm which is why it is currently the warmest year on record. 2011 shows a similar pattern being way down the list at 15 Sept and still way behind even at 15 Nov. But a very warm end to the year pushed it into second place. The point of mentioning this I suppose is that if 2014 also sees a very warm finish to the year then we could easily come in above 11C and possibly even above 11.1C.