Don't think I have ever known a autumn where all model forecast are so sure of a mild, wet winter.
You normally get a few outliers that point to a colder solution, not this year everything points to Mega Mild.
Its like the game is lost before its even started like England in the world cup.
I doubt it will be so clear cut, weather never is, and as for the great Glosea5 I am still waiting for the cold December it was so confidently predicting at the end of November 2016!
If it can't predict 3 weeks out my faith in its 3 month forecasts are somewhat dented.
Andy
If you watched Gavin P.'s second video of yesterday from last night though, you will have seen that the Chinese model is going for a fairly cold winter with February coming out as the coldest month. In fact, that model has high pressure over Scandinavia as early as November although at that time, it would be more likely to be bringing mild winds from the SE, rather than anything all that cold. This is only an outlier though, but it is one which is pointing to a colder solution just now.
As you have said though, all of the other models are pointing to a mild winter despite the fact that we now have an easterly QBO, and the only question which is arising from that is whether we end up getting a really wet and stormy winter such as what we had in 2013/14 and 2015/16, or whether we end up getting that 'if only it were summer' scenario which we had last winter with high pressure over the near continent wafting up some really mild air from the south (which is kind of like the sort of set-up which we have just now, ahead of the upcoming arrival of ex-Hurricane Ophelia).
My concern here is what is happening in the Atlantic. If we look back over the last few years, we had that cold blob which was probably responsible for causing that cooler than average summer which we had in 2015. The effects of that probably haven't been as great in the winter, but there has been a few instances of cold zonality over the last few years with even a wind from the west or south-west bringing showers which briefly fall as snow, even in this part of the world here in Edinburgh.
That happened because the air mass was actually a returning polar maritime air mass which actually had its origins somewhere around Greenland. That air mass would have went further south where it would have been warmed up a bit, before approaching this part of the world from the west or south-west. My gut feeling is that the colder than average waters of the Atlantic at that time, might have helped to reduce the warming of that air mass by enough ensure that the showers were still able to take on a wintry nature even here.
At the moment, the water in that part of the Atlantic Ocean is a lot warmer which means that any returning polar maritime air mass is likely to warmed up more than what has been the case in recent winters, and that would therefore result in any snow showers in that air mass being more confined to higher ground than in recent years. Those warm waters are also likely to promote low pressure which to me, is more likely to signal a wetter and stormier winter than what we had last year. Finally, the fact that all of the colder than average waters are to the SW of the UK means that this is likely to promote high pressure in that area, and the position of that would seem to indicate a stronger Azores High and therefore, a positive NAO.
From that, I can sort of see where the models are coming from by predicting a mild winter ahead and in fact, the Chinese model is currently the only one which is going against that grain.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.