15.0c at Doncaster airport

0.6c off the Christmas day record

This coincidence is no indication of the weather to come. There are a few forecast pressure similarities for the first day or so of the new Year, compared to 1985. That winter, New Year's Eve was the first day for several that the fishpond lost its icy cover. Today, again New Year's Eve, the same is true- after several frozen days. Absolutely no indication but a coincidence I noted and I wanted to say it.

Dry and anticyclonic looks like summing up the first half of winter 2016-17.

Well it's new year so I've returned, out from lurking, to re-visit my winter forecast...

Well it was going ok - up to this week I think the pressure patterns forecasted have verified quite well, maybe with the exception of not predicting the stormy period in the north around Christmas. The northerly flow at the end of December forecasted which was to bring the first snow event did eventually arrive - on 1st Jan - but as rain for most parts...

Into this week and it is indeed cold and frosty for the majority but from here forward, this is where the wheels come off. So from later this weekend, as they say in Dragons' Den, 'I'm Out'. Looking at this week's forecast, I'll have to leave my cards on the table and have another go next year!

Interestingly Brian's forecast has verified well so far, even picking up on the stormy conditions in the north at Christmas. And although it's not perhaps mild as it inferred it would be at the start of January, there's still every chance that the colder conditions forecasted will materialise as we head through the month.

It just goes to show how such small changes to the position of high pressure near the UK can totally change the weather experienced and thus how nigh on impossible producing an accurate LRF is.

On a final note, just because we've not had cold weather yet this winter means nothing to me. Even in those idealised winters of the 80s I recall, in 1985 IMBY for example, we had to wait until mid January for the first snow (which was only a wet covering) and it wasn't until later in the month until it really set in.

In backloaded we trust...

 

In fairness, the second half of winter has always looked mild (refer to Met Office contingency forecast)

So a winter with no cold wintry spells despite all the correct signals beit increased Siberian snow cover in October, active Atlantic hurricane season or solar minimum etc - only cooler and at the best it looks like the coldest day this year was 30th November and 1st December 2016 back in Autumn when we reached a high of +3.5c.

It makes me wonder why on earth the met Office forecasted on seasonal and their probability maps for above average temperatures for central and eastern Europe including SE Europe (Greece) when in fact it has been significantly colder than average and will continue that way!?

Do you still think there is hope ?

*************Whether Idle's Winter forecast************

Issued 21st December 2016.  Valid until 23rd March 2017.

Headline - Varied.  Mild start Colder Finish.  Dry in England. Stormy at times, especially so in Scotland.

Methodolgy: SSTs, Ice cover, Experience and Gut Feeling.

SSTs: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

The SST anomaly shows that the North Atlantic GIN sea area and Arctic Ocean are much warmer than the LTA.  Between 1 and 7c warmer.  This means northerlies from the Arctic will lack their usual cold bite.

An area of ocean off Newfoundland ... anomalies on the left and SST actual on the right>

                                                                              

-

The water to the north is much colder, and the water to the south much warmer than usual - the thermal gradient is extreme and likely to produce storm after storm this winter which will ride east towards Europe on the jet.  The water is 20c different temperature in the space of 70 miles.  Astonishing.

Ice:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Shows the current 11.8million km, about 1.3million km 2 less than the LTA for 20 December, and the least sea Ice recorded at this time (its been the same all autumn) since measurements began. We are about 3 weeks "behind "the curve.  This will blunt the depth of any cold that arrives from the North.

  Gut feeling indicates to me the Ice and SST situation will be influential early on (20 Dec-20 Jan).

***********************************************************************************************

Dates provided are for guidance only 😉.....

Broad scenario -21 Dec - 20 January - generally zonal.  Mild the cool then mild as pM air alternates with tM air.  Windier and wetter towards NW.  More settled and drier towards SE.  Mid latitude high will at times deflect storm systems to the N and W of the UK, at other times the storms will affect Scotland.  Excellent month for generation of wind power in N and W of UK.  Possibly exceptionally dry in SE. Lowland snow fleeting and non-disruptive, some frost and fog in the south.

21 January - 24 January  brief easterly type cold, frosty with wintry showers on prone coasts.   Storminess resumes  by around January 26th, possible transitional snowfall.

27 January - 5 February - Stormy, unsettled.  (This time also affecting areas further S). By turn of the month, finally pressure drops over southern and eastern Europe.  Cooler, unsettled, wetter for south.  Windy, wintry showers on northern Hills. Wind between WSW and NW.

7 February - 14 February - Drier and colder period.  Frost.  Isolated snow flurries. Easterly winds with Anticyclonic conditions also.

15-23 February- More mobile and westerly.  Average temperature and rainfall.

23 February - March 12.  COLDEST period of the winter.  Winds swinging NW then N then NE then E with northern blocking. Snow in upland areas and possibly more generally in N and E.

March 13-23.  Anticyclonic, dry, pleasantly mild at times in S and E.

Notes :I expect the sea ice and temperature anomalies will be much closer to LTAs by late winter, resulting in our best shot at snow in the latter third of winter (ie 20 Feb - 23 March). 

The big pattern change that will allow the cooler 2nd half will be the lowering of pressure over eastern Europe as potent storm systems penetrate from west to east. NB potentially very wet and windy in NW from 21 Dec- mid February.

****************************************************************************************************

Whether Idle 21st December 2016.

 

 

 

Good to see Cohen kind of agrees with me that the week to watch is the third week of January - I went for circa 21st - it can be implied that Cohen thinks possibly  earlier and again implies a more severe easterly outbreak than I did.  I was being small c conservative. :

Edit - Ive copied out the key bit:

"The 3rd week of Jan looks like an interesting period for more intense cold and better snow potential.  That's the period to watch. The wintry weather could continue beyond the third week, but its less clear to me." (re western Europe).

Edit - Interestingly a few members trending colder at 21st in 0z GEFS:

The latest QBO data for December is in and the already strong westerly QBO continues to strengthen. The reading at 30hPa for December is +17.6 which is the joint highest reading on record for December. The other year when we saw 17.6 was December 1992.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

While the QBO is only one of many factors which can influence the winter weather I think it is an important element this year. Other factors suggested an increased chance of blocking and we are certainly seeing some very cold weather in Eastern Europe on a consistent basis at the moment. This cold fringes the UK occasionally but fleetingly. The synoptic setup this year is very different to the past three years and I do think that if we had a strong easterly QBO then we would have a much greater chance of seeing extended cold spells this winter. It is our bad luck that the QBO decided to deviate from its usual pattern this year for the first time since records began in the 1950's. If it had followed its usual pattern we would be under the influence of a strong negative QBO at this point.

I think the current setup is likely to continue for the rest of winter. It is evident in the last few model runs. A short cold snap late next week may only last 3 days or so. Similarly this week we have had a few days of fairly chilly weather but nothing exceptional or extended. Difficult to see how we can get an extended cold spell with such a strong westerly QBO combined with cold temperatures in Eastern Canada which help to keep the northern arm of the jet stream fairly active. 

A few short lived cold spells with transitory snow for some northern and northwestern areas is probably the best we can expect.

The latest QBO data for December is in and the already strong westerly QBO continues to strengthen. The reading at 30hPa for December is +17.6 which is the joint highest reading on record for December. The other year when we saw 17.6 was December 1992.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

While the QBO is only one of many factors which can influence the winter weather I think it is an important element this year. Other factors suggested an increased chance of blocking and we are certainly seeing some very cold weather in Eastern Europe on a consistent basis at the moment. This cold fringes the UK occasionally but fleetingly. The synoptic setup this year is very different to the past three years and I do think that if we had a strong easterly QBO then we would have a much greater chance of seeing extended cold spells this winter. It is our bad luck that the QBO decided to deviate from its usual pattern this year for the first time since records began in the 1950's. If it had followed its usual pattern we would be under the influence of a strong negative QBO at this point.

I think the current setup is likely to continue for the rest of winter. It is evident in the last few model runs. A short cold snap late next week may only last 3 days or so. Similarly this week we have had a few days of fairly chilly weather but nothing exceptional or extended. Difficult to see how we can get an extended cold spell with such a strong westerly QBO combined with cold temperatures in Eastern Canada which help to keep the northern arm of the jet stream fairly active. 

A few short lived cold spells with transitory snow for some northern and northwestern areas is probably the best we can expect.

I'm inclined to agree, it may only be the 6th of Jan but I'm already thinking of throwing the towel in. It just feels all too familiar. Another year, another disappointment. Despite what I've seen as straw clutching by a few, it's just never felt right.

So for me it's a case of a few colder days here and there during an otherwise poor winter, again.

So we're nearly halfway through Winter, and thought I'd have a quick check on how my Winter forecast is doing, and if we can expect anything interesting for the rest of January.  

Well, have to say that I'm pleased that my December forecast was reasonably close to what happened.  Here's the basics of what I said for December 2016 (made on Nov 26th):

"due to a dominant W-SW flow, December looks to be slightly milder than average, and also a little drier than average too".

December certainly did end up mild and dry, although the synoptics were a bit different to what I expected, ie. a stronger Euro High, and not such a strong mid Atlantic High.  Apart from that, not a bad forecast.

So, just a recap of what I said for January 2017 in that forecast:

January 2017
The general theme seems to be an encroachment of the Russian High westwards somewhat, and also a build of High Pressure over the Arctic, although no major blocking is indicated. Some signals also for a weak Low Pressure anomaly over Europe, and still a mid-Atlantic or Azores High signal, though less strong by then. The net result looks like being a near average month for both rainfall and temperatures, with no one weather type dominating this month. Probably a real mix of Atlantic spells, some Anticyclonic set ups, and the risk of a few colder spells from the north and east.

The only thing I would add at the moment is that January's synoptic charts so far, (and into the next 5 days), remind me of the same period in January 1984.  And also interesting that 1984 is one of the analogue matches for this year - being the closest ENSO match.  January 1984 did bring some severe Wintry weather to central and northern UK later in the month, so that is always a possibility for Jan 2017.  We will see.

Accuweather's winter forecast is turning increasingly into a duff, correction their December forecast for the UK was way out! 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

They went for a stormy winter for the UK. Halfway through the meteorological winter and it has been overall benign with few storms thus far and high pressure looks like taking over again very soon. That will take us into the second half of January.

Safe to say that this winter as a whole won't be anything special. Can't rule out something in Feb (no signs of that at present, mind) but the winter so far (and into the reliable future that takes us as far as approaching the last remnants of Jan) has been rather stupifyingly boring.

Safe to say that this winter as a whole won't be anything special. Can't rule out something in Feb (no signs of that at present, mind) but the winter so far (and into the reliable future that takes us as far as approaching the last remnants of Jan) has been rather stupifyingly boring.

The model watching has certainly been more interesting this year than last. However, bar the last 10 days, the interesting stuff has mostly been well out in FI. I am now suffering from post cold-spell model-gazing fatigue syndrome.

 I am now suffering from post cold-spell model-gazing fatigue syndrome.

It's a recognised medical condition, but the acronym could be snappier.

Well so far so good.

Back in Sept(?) I hope cast that low solar would build a UK shield from the storms the WACCy weather would bring ( though their deflection into the Arctic/Southern Spain has not been nice?).

We might now be looking at a disruption of the Polar Strat so I might even get some help from that in keeping the storms away from us even if it means a cold Feb?

I have absolutely no idea what this means for summer though!!! One extreme at a time eh?

In the winter wishful thinking stakes it has gone like this:

November - thinking was a cold December, with much 2010-esque froth and bubble.

December - the ghost of 1962/63 was raised a few times but less than in previous years.

Late December - 1984/85 was hinted at as a possible pattern but alas that fell too.

Early January - Someone posted (somewhat tongue in cheek) that the 1947 winter didn't start til 23 January.  That train has not arrived, sadly.

Mid January - Model fatigue, loss of hope and "spring is coming soon" posts have started....

Remember the WI forecast of Winter arriving properly around Feb 23rd after a blocked week early-mid Feb. 

*************Whether Idle's Winter forecast************

Issued 21st December 2016.  Valid until 23rd March 2017.

Headline - Varied.  Mild start Colder Finish.  Dry in England. Stormy at times, especially so in Scotland.

Methodolgy: SSTs, Ice cover, Experience and Gut Feeling.

SSTs: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

The SST anomaly shows that the North Atlantic GIN sea area and Arctic Ocean are much warmer than the LTA.  Between 1 and 7c warmer.  This means northerlies from the Arctic will lack their usual cold bite.

An area of ocean off Newfoundland ... anomalies on the left and SST actual on the right>

                                                                              

-

The water to the north is much colder, and the water to the south much warmer than usual - the thermal gradient is extreme and likely to produce storm after storm this winter which will ride east towards Europe on the jet.  The water is 20c different temperature in the space of 70 miles.  Astonishing.

Ice:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Shows the current 11.8million km, about 1.3million km 2 less than the LTA for 20 December, and the least sea Ice recorded at this time (its been the same all autumn) since measurements began. We are about 3 weeks "behind "the curve.  This will blunt the depth of any cold that arrives from the North.

  Gut feeling indicates to me the Ice and SST situation will be influential early on (20 Dec-20 Jan).

***********************************************************************************************

Dates provided are for guidance only 😉.....

Broad scenario -21 Dec - 20 January - generally zonal.  Mild the cool then mild as pM air alternates with tM air.  Windier and wetter towards NW.  More settled and drier towards SE.  Mid latitude high will at times deflect storm systems to the N and W of the UK, at other times the storms will affect Scotland.  Excellent month for generation of wind power in N and W of UK.  Possibly exceptionally dry in SE. Lowland snow fleeting and non-disruptive, some frost and fog in the south.

21 January - 24 January  brief easterly type cold, frosty with wintry showers on prone coasts.   Storminess resumes  by around January 26th, possible transitional snowfall.

27 January - 5 February - Stormy, unsettled.  (This time also affecting areas further S). By turn of the month, finally pressure drops over southern and eastern Europe.  Cooler, unsettled, wetter for south.  Windy, wintry showers on northern Hills. Wind between WSW and NW.

7 February - 14 February - Drier and colder period.  Frost.  Isolated snow flurries. Easterly winds with Anticyclonic conditions also.

15-23 February- More mobile and westerly.  Average temperature and rainfall.

23 February - March 12.  COLDEST period of the winter.  Winds swinging NW then N then NE then E with northern blocking. Snow in upland areas and possibly more generally in N and E.

March 13-23.  Anticyclonic, dry, pleasantly mild at times in S and E.

Notes :I expect the sea ice and temperature anomalies will be much closer to LTAs by late winter, resulting in our best shot at snow in the latter third of winter (ie 20 Feb - 23 March). 

The big pattern change that will allow the cooler 2nd half will be the lowering of pressure over eastern Europe as potent storm systems penetrate from west to east. NB potentially very wet and windy in NW from 21 Dec- mid February.

****************************************************************************************************

Whether Idle 21st December 2016.

 

 

 

So far your forecast has been more or less spot on with drier colder SE and looks set to continue to be correct in my terms of the 'stormy resuming' on 26th of the month ...(Jan). - almost in line with GFS.

Well done so far.☺ fingers crossed for Feb.

John hammond

Some 'up north' living a charmed life. But continental chill in SE Eng will ooze to most of UK by weekend. Possibly coldest spell of winter

Tell me about it. -2c at 6pm IMBY is highly unusual.  Third bar on the fire territory!