Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the 12z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 8th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a deep depression near Northern Ireland drifting North through Scotland tomorrow and away to the North thereafter filling steadily. A very showery period is to come with some heavy and thundery showers in places but with some drier spells too, these becoming more prevalent through Monday. On Tuesday a vigorous trough looks like tracking East over the UK with squally winds and heavy rain sweeping East followed by further showers.
GFS then shows further unsettled weather thereafter as the blustery Atlantic theme continues with further vigorous Lows delivering further spells of rain and gales towards the end of next week and weekend. Through the latter stages tonight the theme is still generally an unsettled one but with a little more in the way of drier weather possible between rain bouts later.
The GFS Ensembles show a reduction in rain amounts later in the run but until then it's more of the same from most members with rain and showers at times. There is a lot of spread between the members later in the run.
UKMO tonight shows complex Low pressure over the West of the UK later next week with further rain at times in less strong winds than of late and with temperatures close to average. The rain could be heavy in places especially towards the west and South-west.
GEM maintains very unsettled conditions tonight throughout the final section of it's run with strong winds and heavy rain at times continuing to dominate the UK weather. A ridge of High pressure does edge in from the West at Day 10 to bring a temporary respite from the wet of late.
NAVGEM shows next weekend as unsettled and probably a little chilly with Westerly winds decreasing with time but continuing to feed occasional rain and showers across the UK with snow on hills of the North.
ECM tonight tries it's hardest to get us into something a little drier and more average instead of the extreme conditions that has afflicted the UK for so long now. We have another week or so before such improvements become apparent due to Low pressure moving to more Northerly latitudes taking the heavier rain and windier conditions with them.
The Jet Stream Summary shows the flow remaining in an Eastwards motion across the Atlantic and through France and Spain. Through Week 2 the flow shows signs of migrating Northward over the British Isles.
In Summary tonight the weather remains generally quite unsettled and windy with heavy rain and gales at times for the next week at least. There are some indications of a slow improvement through Week 2 as the pattern weakens and the Jet flow steers Low pressure areas further North. I get the feeling though that improvements at a meaningful level are going to occur painfully slowly with many rocky roads to negotiate along the way and even probable setbacks.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset