Let's face it, CFS spends most of the time either showing full-on zonal charts with a raging Atlantic, or full-on high-latitude blocking with a raging Atlantic.
In the end all you can do is look at the average across a vast number of runs and see which is happening more often, so giving a rough guide as to what the signals are pointing towards (usually very rough beyond the range of a month or two, though not always as was seen with March 2013).
From watching it over the past year or so (since upgrading to CFS v2), it does seem that when CFS shows a very strong signal at 3-6 month's range, what we end up with does tend to at least bear some resemblence to what it called for.
With that in mind, January has caught my eye for the coming winter, as for some time now it's had the strongest signal from CFS out of the three winter months.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On