theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2023 06:19:44
Decent set of 0z this morning.  Especially the GEM again . GEM control is basically 1976 redux. Even GFS has 30c for next Saturday but it's still more unsettled than the rest.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2023 07:13:53
ECM probably the least settled this morning annoyingly. Still gives the hot weekend though. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
02 July 2023 07:27:18

ECM probably the least settled this morning annoyingly. Still gives the hot weekend though. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



To be honest I’m more bothered by the max of 13 over the coming days than a max of 20°C a week away here.

This is not a very summery looking picture: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_42_1.png 

UserPostedImage 

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Jiries
02 July 2023 07:46:46

To be honest I’m more bothered by the max of 13 over the coming days than a max of 20°C a week away here.

This is not a very summery looking picture: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_42_1.png 

UserPostedImage 

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Was in Scotland at Glencoe area and was pleasant 18-22C days 24C highest when passing Glasgow,  Once this silly Autumn Low out of the way there huge HP to the west to move in and bring the warm to hot weather by the weekend as HP move east. 
Ghosts1
02 July 2023 07:51:52
GFS ensembles are all over the place after Friday. Difficult to give an exact forecast before closer to the time, UK on a boundary between warm and unsettled. FWIW, the ECM clusters last night were pretty awful with low pressure over or around the UK out until the end of its run right through week 2. Let's see what they bring this morning.
bledur
02 July 2023 08:11:14

...and quelle surprise, the 12z run is just 10C warmer at the same time!  🤣

Normal service has been resumed. (And it's good to see this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in winter, with heavy snow "poofing" between runs...)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Starting to look like quite a wet day Tuesday -Wednesday for the south.
bledur
02 July 2023 08:14:32

Decent set of 0z this morning.  Especially the GEM again . GEM control is basically 1976 redux. Even GFS has 30c for next Saturday but it's still more unsettled than the rest.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Looks like a short lived plume as the Atlantic shoves it all east. JMA looking particularly wet in 7_8 days time
Retron
02 July 2023 17:29:43

Starting to look like quite a wet day Tuesday -Wednesday for the south.

Originally Posted by: bledur 


GFS as usual is really oscillating around, the past three runs have, for here, had 27mm, 17mm and now 4mm from the rain Tuesday into Wednesday. (They then have had showers on Wednesday, but they're more miss than hit when GFS forecasts them).

UKV just has showers, while ECM has only a couple of mm.

I'm not expecting much down here TBH, but it'll be a nice surprise if it's more.

Further north it's a different story, of course!
Leysdown, north Kent
Downpour
02 July 2023 19:27:59
ECM is yet another run that keeps the trigger low west and draws up warm air from the south in a plumey scenario. Several runs, from various models, have toyed with this solution now. Cannot be discounted. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Jiries
02 July 2023 21:13:16

ECM is yet another run that keeps the trigger low west and draws up warm air from the south in a plumey scenario. Several runs, from various models, have toyed with this solution now. Cannot be discounted. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Need to see warm weather return to bring indoor temps back to mid 20's getting nervous to see temps falling slowly to 22C after 3 days cold winds and overcast weather.  
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2023 04:45:50
Disappointing 0z this morning . The briefest of plumes followed by more of the same unsettled ish NW-SE split, but not what most of us want in July. Looking more and more likely we'll have to wait until the 2nd half of July for anything properly decent. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
03 July 2023 05:54:51
It all looks a bit stuck in a rut in the same way as much of June but with rather different synoptics.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2023 06:45:08
Resuming ...

As Dr M says, WX temp and pptn charts look stuck for the next two weeks - a gradation from N to S, Britain across to Scandinavia a little cooler, France across to Poland a little warmer than average. Rain well distributed but some increase for N Britain and Scandinavia in week 2.

GFS Op - LPs drifting across Britain from the Atlantic to Scandinavia with a general W-ly theme; perhaps sticking out to the west briefly Sat 8th long enough to pump up some heat from the S, though for the following weekend actually centred over Britain so more unsettled.

ECM - similar to GFS, perhaps a little less mobile

GEFS - temps cool for now; briefly warmer Sat 8th esp in SE, then close to or a little below norm for the foreseeable, Small amounts of rain from time to time in the S, rather more in the N.

A typical British summer under Atlantic influence
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
ballamar
03 July 2023 06:48:50
Interesting GFS goes out to 19th July which was a little warm last year! Looks markedly different on this one run in the far distance, wouldn’t it be boring if it was the same each year
Brian Gaze
03 July 2023 07:06:16
I'll start a new thread soon.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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