I think john is 'incorrect' about his 06' sea ice quote. By 08' there was even less (volume?) ice than in 07' (record min?). This is about ice cover over certain ocean areas (Kara/Barents) so i suggest we go back and look at those 2 sea ice areas and see if we have parity?
What is the evidence that low sea-ice in a given area will drive a particular synoptic pattern ? I can accept that low arctic sea ice will influence synoptics it must do, its the suggestion that it is the primary driver for a particular pattern which can be diagnosed I struggle with.
In my last natter with Mark Serezze I was warned that this 'understanding' was "too simplistic" to accommodate the reality but i still feel it is a good starting point.
1960, an area of Arctic ocean, 6 times the size of the UK, in late Oct. Sea -Frozen, Temp (2m) between -20 and -30c.
2010, an area of arctic ocean, 6 times the size of the UK, in late Oct. Sea-Open Water, Temp (0c).
Polar night, warm water? What would naturally happen to all that heat? (remember , Nature loves 'Balance')
Mark warned me that warm air rising, shedding polar cold as it rose, was much to simplistic a 'model' to apply to the 'real world' and I guess He's spot on. Problem is the 'simplistic'underlies the vast complexities of what 'open water' ,over summer, is all about and now that we can see the 'scale' of the anomalies (over a long enough time span) You must surely need to ask yourself "What would a 30c anom, for up to 8 weeks, do to the atmospheric circulation up there?"
Until we see ice the water is 0c (ish) , it should be -30 to 40 by December? so won't all that 'saved energy' play heck with the atmosphere when it bleeds back into it?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
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