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The Beast from the East
14 May 2020 14:00:32

I've come to the conclusion that both Whitty and Vallance are chancers who know about as much as we do


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
14 May 2020 14:01:35


We're starting to get more useful data:


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


More confirmation that the spread of infection had been overestimated and the lethality underestimated.


 

fairweather
14 May 2020 14:07:41


Questions mount over Russia's low mortality rate
From the BBC news ticker:
"Questions are mounting over Russia's extraordinarily low reported mortality rate - only 2,305 deaths with 252,000 infected. Moscow's department of health says it does not include most deaths of Covid-19 patients in official statistics because they had other potentially lethal illnesses. St Petersburg has reported an unexplained spike in deaths from pneumonia - five-and-a-half times the usual number and 10 times the official number of Covid-19 deaths in the city.Meduza, an independent Russian website, says official statistics are doctored and Russians are effectively “not allowed to die from coronavirus”. Many of those who find official numbers hard to believe keep their own tally.

Medical workers have their own list of colleagues they say have been killed by coronavirus. Even Orthodox priests have launched their own list "because official statistics are incomplete". Earlier, the Financial Times said Russia’s Covid-19 death toll could be 70% higher than official figure, but officials in Moscow dismissed such reports as "fake".




You can add a zero on that % figure, and then double it would be nearer the mark.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


You see, they don't have the Covid-19 pandemic, they've got their own home grown pneumonia epidemic instead !! FFS, they make China look ethically superb!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
14 May 2020 14:43:15

I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance


 


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Darren S
14 May 2020 14:46:37


 


On my Zoe Covid-19 app has people with symptoms has plateaued now at 243,500 people currently with symptoms. This has to be expected at some point as we had not changed strategy for two months. We have now though so I would expect a creep upwards from now. Deaths will follow and reach their minimum in about two weeks time then plateau. Then we will be watching closely to see what happens next.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


No, the number of new cases will not plateau due to any lack of change of strategy, any more than the number of cases plateaud before lockdown.


If this is true, it shows that the R value is now about 1, and prior to this month it was less than 1. In other words, there has been a slight change in behaviour, with people mixing with others slightly more. You could expect a further creep upwards from now, due to the recent loosening of the rules, which will make the R figure creep above 1.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Phil G
14 May 2020 14:47:37


I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance


 


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I don't do twitter. Beast, as an aside Eurovision is on Saturday in case you aren't aware. Know you love it!

The Beast from the East
14 May 2020 14:50:10


 


roughly 10,000 people a day 


The findings will inform the government’s next steps as it considers whether it is safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialising, businesses and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest the current rates of infection remain “some way off” what would be needed to lift the lockdown.


The results are likely to fuel concerns about the potential of opening primary schools on 1 June to fuel transmission in the community, as no evidence was found of differences in the proportions testing positive between the age categories 2 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 years and over.


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As I suspected, children are carriers as well. Schoolteachers are being attacked by the RWM and a well organised social media campaign by Cummings for being lazy cowards


Schools should not re-open and the lockdown has already broken down in England. It started last Friday when the flag shaggers were out celebrating Brexit again


If infection rates go up thanks to this, perhaps even Teflon Boris will struggle to bluff his way out


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 May 2020 14:52:41


 


I don't do twitter. Beast, as an aside Eurovision is on Saturday in case you aren't aware. Know you love it!


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I don't think its a new one, just repeats?! 


I did love it, in the days of Bucks fizz and when Terry Wogan presented it


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
westv
14 May 2020 14:56:23


I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance


 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Don't you mix with up with that lot!


At least it will be mild!
The Beast from the East
14 May 2020 14:59:59


 


Don't you mix with up with that lot!


Originally Posted by: westv 


I'd go along just to see if the police actually attempt to do anything! I suspect no fines will be issued and plod will stick to going after the motorist who drives at 31mph


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Darren S
14 May 2020 15:05:28


 


I don't think its a new one, just repeats?! 


I did love it, in the days of Bucks fizz and when Terry Wogan presented it


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It is new - all of this year's songs were already selected, and will be presented on Saturday night. There just won't be any (official) voting. Many countries are doing a vote anyway, but there will be no official winner so that Netherlands still get to host properly in 2021 (assuming it's safe to do so by then)


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
xioni2
14 May 2020 15:13:23

As expected, the media don't understand what 100% accuracy and what 99.8% specificity really mean for the antibody tests. The lower the prevalence of the decease in the population, the higher the chance that the antibody test will return a false positive, even with a specificity rate of 99.8%.


I made a simple table to illustrate this for testing 10,000 people. If the true prevalence of the decease is 0.5%, then the antibody test developed by Roche has almost 30% chance of returning  a false positive for any single person. This risk drops to less than 1% only if the prevalence is 20%.


fairweather
14 May 2020 15:26:53


I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance


 


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yeah, they're well hard. Just happened to choose the city with the lowest infection rate in the UK ! I bet Norwich City Council are delighted to let this spread the virus to them. Of course it won't happen. The police and army will prevent it.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Hippydave
14 May 2020 15:29:26


As expected, the media don't understand what 100% accuracy and what 99.8% specificity really mean for the antibody tests. The lower the prevalence of the decease in the population, the higher the chance that the antibody test will return a false positive, even with a specificity rate of 99.8%.


I made a simple table to illustrate this for testing 10,000 people. If the true prevalence of the decease is 0.5%, then the antibody test developed by Roche has almost 30% chance of returning  a false positive for any single person. This risk drops to less than 1% only if the prevalence is 20%.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Daft question - I thought the specificity meant it's accuracy in determining this strain of coronavirus from others?


I can't see your table as too small but to work out an idea of how many false positives it may cause wouldn't you also need to know or at least guess how much of the sample already have other coronavirus antibodies, or is it accepted that everyone will have them due to common cold etc?


I.e it could only produce a false positive if that person had a strain of coronavirus antibodies.


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
fairweather
14 May 2020 15:30:36


 


No, the number of new cases will not plateau due to any lack of change of strategy, any more than the number of cases plateaud before lockdown.


If this is true, it shows that the R value is now about 1, and prior to this month it was less than 1. In other words, there has been a slight change in behaviour, with people mixing with others slightly more. You could expect a further creep upwards from now, due to the recent loosening of the rules, which will make the R figure creep above 1.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Sorry, but yes. It has to plateau before rising and it has, as will any slowing rate of change. But we are both saying the same thing anyway.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Devonian
14 May 2020 15:35:16


I think PhilG, Crewe, Maunder, four, westv, bleur, hickster, Essan and Duane will be in attendance


 


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


If it's for real then anyone who does go is a selfish, ignorant loon. I'd lock the lot of them up - for their own safety.

Gavin D
14 May 2020 15:36:22

Of the 22,332 people who died since 31st March in England

26% - 5,873 had diabetes

18% - 4,048 had dementia

15% - 3,254 had chronic pulmonary disease.

14% - 3,214 deaths had chronic kidney disease as an underlying health issue.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 May 2020 16:02:42


Of the 22,332 people who died since 31st March in England

26% - 5,873 had diabetes

18% - 4,048 had dementia

15% - 3,254 had chronic pulmonary disease.

14% - 3,214 deaths had chronic kidney disease as an underlying health issue.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I wonder how big a part obesity played in those deaths?


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Heavy Weather 2013
14 May 2020 16:03:18


Of the 22,332 people who died since 31st March in England

26% - 5,873 had diabetes

18% - 4,048 had dementia

15% - 3,254 had chronic pulmonary disease.

14% - 3,214 deaths had chronic kidney disease as an underlying health issue.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


There were two sets of guidance of I remember:


Clinically vulnerable


Clinically extremely vulnerable


I wonder why diabetes was not listed on the clinically extremely vulnerable document.


In fact. This is damning:


https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk-from-coronavirus/whos-at-higher-risk-from-coronavirus/


 


 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
14 May 2020 16:05:21
11,041Β in hospital down from 11,327 yesterday and down 14% from last Thursday
xioni2
14 May 2020 16:09:19


 Daft question - I thought the specificity meant it's accuracy in determining this strain of coronavirus from others?


I can't see your table as too small but to work out an idea of how many false positives it may cause wouldn't you also need to know or at least guess how much of the sample already have other coronavirus antibodies, or is it accepted that everyone will have them due to common cold etc?


I.e it could only produce a false positive if that person had a strain of coronavirus antibodies.


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


The specificity refers to the ability of the test to detect antibodies specific to the virus you are testing for and it's essentially a measure of how many false positives the test returns. Only 100% specificity guarantees that the test won't return a false positive, that is a positive for an antibody related to another virus (other coronaviruses or cold viruses etc.).


You can right click the table and open it in a new tab to see it.


 

Retron
14 May 2020 16:12:55


Daft question - I thought the specificity meant it's accuracy in determining this strain of coronavirus from others?


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


The American FDA have a good page on it all here:


https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance


Along with an Excel sheet which does all the maths here:


https://www.fda.gov/media/137612/download


Xioni's figures are correct, but assume that hardly anyone has had it (the official rate is 0.35% of the country, but bear in mind that's just the number of confirmed cases divided by the population of the UK).


In reality it's going to be much higher than that, especially accounting for those who had it early on when testing was so limited. I would expect at least 4%, much in line with France and Spain.


EDIT: And of course, we won't know how many people have had it until we get testing... as a negative is almost certain to mean negative, we'll at least know who hasn't had it (as well as those who may not have had it, but who have given a false positive).


 


 


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
JHutch
14 May 2020 16:16:02

No idea how reliable it is but the data in the study below suggests that the average years of life lost for people who have died of the coronavirus is about 12 years. No time to read through it at the moment but thought it might be of interest.


https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

Gavin D
14 May 2020 16:22:45

Daily slides


Testing and new cases


tests.thumb.png.07ea0c65093693c3d918d9614e80fd29.png


Hospitals


hospitals.thumb.png.05195b18f37843cc59dc2ede4c8091a9.png


People in hospital


2100859825_peopleinhospital.thumb.png.ab29d97c38cdaba90e447bd909fda0f7.png


All settings deaths with a rolling average


​​​​​​​deaths.png

Gavin D
14 May 2020 16:25:29
Professor Van-Tam onΒ the 7-day rolling deaths average "this decline is now continuing and it is sustained - which again is a very positive sign indeed"

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