Post 144 its
GFS v ICON , UKMO and ECM. Not good
The story of this winter is quite plain. There have been stellar charts at day 10, but nothing getting close to the reliable timeframe which is t+96. T+120 is FI and T+144 is the limit.
Shannon entropy has taken over the model output because of unusual events in the Stratosphere and because of deep solar minimum.
When we are in the usual zonal flow, the models and ensembles are pretty accurate out to about t+168, but in the current situation, they are nowhere. Concentrate on the next 4 days - even then we see changes as early as t+72.
This winter screamed potential and I believe it could have delivered HLB and those winter wonderland charts which crop up regularly at t+240, apart from one massive fly in the ointment - when the PV wa split asunder by the SSW, an active chunk of it took up residence in the least favourable location for UK cold - eastern Canada - as a consequence, whenever the models attempt to build ridging into Greenland from the Azores HP, it only ever works in low res, since the spoiler in Canada keeps spitting out active shortwaves which flatten the picture as we get into high res. The best that is on offer is a NW to SE flow with slider lows delivering snow for some as we saw this week - those hoping for the Beast or a Greenie HP are destined to be disappointed until the Canadian vortex remnant decides to take a vacation somewhere else - hopefully in California.
Just ignore anything at T+240, it will never happen whatever it shows, except by coincidence.
Edited by user
24 January 2019 19:35:14
|
Reason: Not specified