It's the curse of the zonal heatwave that scorches the continent.

Old weather proverb: "when France is wracked with heat and drought, North of Derby won't get nowt"

But "when stormclouds fill the Italian sky, the highlands and pennines shall be warm and dry" 

I love these ancient proverbs that have been passed down through thousands of years. 🤣

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It’s their version of North Sea gloom. 

They had a fantastic summer last year while the SE oozed with gloom and damp and all the vineyards got downy mildew. I think this spell will be pretty good for the NE though. More of an EW split than a NS one. 20C in Aberdeen and 22C in Bridlington as we speak.

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They had a fantastic summer last year while the SE oozed with gloom and damp and all the vineyards got downy mildew. I think this spell will be pretty good for the NE though. More of an EW split than a NS one. 20C in Aberdeen and 22C in Bridlington as we speak.

Yeah -  whether it gets particularly hot or not remains to be seen but it looks sunny and dry for the foreseeable here. Can’t grumble. 

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Met Office longer range forecasts have downplayed the heat somewhat, saying just "possibly hot".
Quite telling that.

Today's shot-ranger simply says "Becoming hot" which is pretty unambiguous. Longer range not yet updated

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Fine, dry and very warm with plenty of sunshine for most regions. Becoming hot across central and southern areas. Cloudier and cooler in the northwest with rain possible at times.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 8 Jul 2022

 

Yesterday's official max from the Met Office is 26.5C at Kew Gardens although Leconfield reported a max of 27.7C with an hourly max of 26.5c. That seems to have been discounted. Leconfield was topping the charts quite a lot recently so perhaps there are some concerns over the reliability of the readings there?

 

Leconfield also seems to be ahead of the pack today with 23.3C at 10am (next highest is Bridlington with 22.5C) so perhaps there is something dodgy going on there?

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A bit of digging around Twitter and it looks as if Leconfield has been flagged as suspect. So a few of the year's earlier top temperatures are likely to be revised downwards if those are discounted.

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24C already here, which during hot weather is actually not that uncommon here. We tend to warm very fast early and then as the inland catches up sea breezes begin to cap temperatures.

Yesterday was the first of what looks like being well over a week of 40C+ days across Iberia, with 40.6C at Moron de la Frontera in Spain.

GFS max modelled temperatures for Portugal and/or Spain from today:

42C, 44C, 43C, 43C, 44C, 44C, 40C, 40C, 38C, 40C.

That's what "may" be headed our way.

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A bit of digging around Twitter and it looks as if Leconfield has been flagged as suspect. So a few of the year's earlier top temperatures are likely to be revised downwards if those are discounted.

It's annoying because it stops me seeing what's really the warmest location on xcweather. It's now at 26C...

A few 23s in there: Doncaster, Bridlington, Headcorn. My Pett Bottom station is showing 23.3C.

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Must be 40 to 50% of ECM ensembles going for what would be record approaching heat between 17th and 19th.

 

 

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It's annoying because it stops me seeing what's really the warmest location on xcweather. It's now at 26C...

A few 23s in there: Doncaster, Bridlington, Headcorn. My Pett Bottom station is showing 23.3C.

Ogimet is quick to update with the hourly synops via this link: https://ogimet.com/ultimos_synops2.php?lang=en&estado=United+K&fmt=html&Send=Send

But you do have to manually decode them - for those that don't know it's the fourth block of numbers starting "10" that shows the temperature, eg 10216 at Heathrow is 21.6C.

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Must be 40 to 50% of ECM ensembles going for what would be record approaching heat between 17th and 19th.

 

 

Indeed, the ECM Ensembles are very encouraging for those looking out for extremes.

I am fascinated by what has been showing up over the last week or so.

If it moves into the semi reliable time frame, which there is every chance it will do, we could be looking at one of the most interesting spells of weather for many years.

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Must be 40 to 50% of ECM ensembles going for what would be record approaching heat between 17th and 19th.

 

 

 

Look at the bottom graph on this link: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202207080000&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=51.4712&lon=-0.452714&station_name=Heathrow

 

The red line is the 99 percentile from climatology (basically a 1 in 100-year event for any given day). The fat part of the bar is the 75th percentile of the model run. So on the July 18th, the 75th percentile is about 3 degrees above the "1 in 100 year" level. Something like 35% of the model runs are above that level.

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Could be a 34/35 on Tuesday by the looks of GFS op. The very high temps could be here in the near future

Must be 40 to 50% of ECM ensembles going for what would be record approaching heat between 17th and 19th.

 

 

I have a strong feeling this time we will get the 40C jackpot after many attempts since 2015 onward, lot of members between 20-25C that something not to dismiss and very likely to happen. It way impossible for UK to miss out a heatwave when France had been baking hot since May.

Could be a 34/35 on Tuesday by the looks of GFS op. The very high temps could be here in the near future

In fact GFS seems to want to go for the sustained but not record breaking heat option. S England top temps from today 29, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 27, 28, 30, 33.

And zero precipitation up to 246h

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Striking difference in temperature between 20 miles down here. Left Portsmouth half hour ago from the north of the city via train to Chichester and it must be a at least 3C cooler.

 

In fact GFS seems to want to go for the sustained but not record breaking heat option. S England top temps from today 29, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 27, 28, 30, 33.

And zero precipitation up to 246h

i suppose we could build our own heat island during this so locally could be underplaying the temps. But as you say could just be a long hot spell with a few very hot days

 

 

Look at the bottom graph on this link: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202207080000&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=51.4712&lon=-0.452714&station_name=Heathrow

 

The red line is the 99 percentile from climatology (basically a 1 in 100-year event for any given day). The fat part of the bar is the 75th percentile of the model run. So on the July 18th, the 75th percentile is about 3 degrees above the "1 in 100 year" level. Something like 35% of the model runs are above that level.

 

ECM is definitely sniffing something hot!

 

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Yesterday was the first of what looks like being well over a week of 40C+ days across Iberia, with 40.6C at Moron de la Frontera in Spain.

GFS max modelled temperatures for Portugal and/or Spain from today:

42C, 44C, 43C, 43C, 44C, 44C, 40C, 40C, 38C, 40C.

That's what "may" be headed our way.

 

Top temperature at 1000Z (noon local time in Portugal) was 35.4C in Evora, Portugal.

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Do we reckon that 20-25c 850Hpa temps in Summer are the equivalent to -15c- -20c 850 temps  in winter ? 

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