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Offline GezM  
#81 Posted : 27 January 2022 18:33:07(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,380
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

I have a feeling that the correction will be greater than 0.3C. but I hope not!

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline ARTzeman  
#82 Posted : 28 January 2022 10:46:00(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        4.9c         Anomaly         1.2c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly          0.12c

Netweather                  4.69c       Anomaly          0.5c

Peasedown St John      4.57c       Anomaly          -0.88c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#83 Posted : 29 January 2022 11:28:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c

Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#84 Posted : 29 January 2022 13:03:19(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,897
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Still a chance for it to rise a bit towards my 5.3c guess but a downward adjustment could scupper me!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#85 Posted : 29 January 2022 14:43:45(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,809
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c

Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c

Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.

I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Caz  
#86 Posted : 29 January 2022 18:10:49(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,897
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

 

I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C

  Sorry!  Not laughing at your prediction, it’s your reaction that’s tickled me!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline ARTzeman  
#87 Posted : 30 January 2022 10:57:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.1c         Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 29th

Metcheck                     4.50c       Anomaly         0.35c

Netweather                  4.9c         Anomaly         0.71c

Peasedown St John      4.57c       Anomaly         -0.88c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#88 Posted : 31 January 2022 11:25:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.1c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to 30th

Metcheck                     4.55c     Anomaly       0.40c

Netweather                  4.89c     Anomaly       0.7c

Peasedown St John     5.48c     Anomaly       0.3c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Stormchaser  
#89 Posted : 31 January 2022 21:50:09(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

Well, it appears I'll have started this year in better shape than last, as luck would have it. Okay, it didn't take that much of it .

I can't say I'm filled with confidence in my Feb estimate - more signs of high pressure dominating somewhere in the vicinity of the UK, with hints of a drift right overhead for mid-month, in which case it will make a huge difference just how far north it is.

Jan has been far milder for much of Scotland than southern England, demonstrating the differential that can exist between stagnant conditions beneath it and a westerly flow on its northern flank. Had the high not clouded up 22nd-25th, the difference would probably have been even larger owing to more nights falling well below zero.

On the broad scale, the subtropical high pressure belt is exceptionally strong and far north. Only a handful of past winters can rival the current position. Funnily enough, one of those is the notorious 1976... best hope that's not an omen as from what I hear, the drought was tough enough back then and that was with a markedly smaller population (~56.2 million) than we have now (~68.2 million) - there are ~12 million more human beings consuming water each day!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Bertwhistle  
#90 Posted : 31 January 2022 22:10:57(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,866
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

 

I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C

Only by a bit! Whatever possessed me to go for 2.77 I'll question for some time. After the Christmas thing, I think I was willing January whit-ish!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Online Saint Snow  
#91 Posted : 01 February 2022 09:59:55(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 55,360
Man
Location: St Helens

Hoping for a hefty downwards adjustment 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Windy Willow  
#92 Posted : 01 February 2022 14:07:56(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,010
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

I'm hoping the downward adjustment isn't too hefty 

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Dingle Rob  
#93 Posted : 01 February 2022 16:53:08(UTC)
Dingle Rob

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/03/2011(UTC)
Posts: 227
United Kingdom
Location: Bristol

Has there ever been an upwards adjustment or is that not possible? 

Offline rcharlick  
#94 Posted : 02 February 2022 10:24:59(UTC)
rcharlick

Rank: Newbie

Joined: 20/08/2014(UTC)
Posts: 5
Location: UK

Every winter where I live (Basingstoke), the weather becomes less attractive as there are no decent spells of frost or even a snowfall event.

I am familiar with the synoptic set-ups that favoured more interesting winters and was expecting something more like 2010 this year but instead no break from the tedious mild pattern.

Is it safe to say that it will just continue to get warmer with eventually no cold outbreaks over winter and heatwaves from early summer onwards?  

The summers in recent years have not seen prolonged hot spells as of yet - there is minor variation between seasons, but still, based on my observations (last 12 years), more chance of colder conditions in Marck.

I would welcome comments on this and find out what other people think.  I look across the Atlantic and get excited by the freak snowfall events but know that these could result from higher temperatures than those historically recorded.

Offline John S2  
#95 Posted : 02 February 2022 11:28:44(UTC)
John S2

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,814
Location: West Yorks/East Lancs

Originally Posted by: rcharlick Go to Quoted Post

Every winter where I live (Basingstoke), the weather becomes less attractive as there are no decent spells of frost or even a snowfall event.

I am familiar with the synoptic set-ups that favoured more interesting winters and was expecting something more like 2010 this year but instead no break from the tedious mild pattern.

Is it safe to say that it will just continue to get warmer with eventually no cold outbreaks over winter and heatwaves from early summer onwards? 

Around 2005-2007 there were a minority on this forum predicting that cold winters would not happen again, then came the trio 08/09, 09/10 and the famous Dec 2010. Interestingly there were also a trio of cold winters 1984/85, 85/86. 86/87. These 2 clusters came around the same point in the double [Hale] solar cycle. It will be interesting to see whether a cold winter occurs around or shortly after the next Hale minimum, possibly around 2030.

Incidentally, we do not necessarily need solar minimum for severe winter months to occur. 1947 & 1979 were solar maximum winters.

I have no doubt that, despite the warming trend, we will see some more cold winter months. I expect the factors causing cold winter months to align favourably again at some point.

Offline western100  
#96 Posted : 02 February 2022 14:55:16(UTC)
western100

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
Posts: 494
Location: Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

Has the January CET been published yet?
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

Twitter…..@Weather4u2

Offline lanky  
#97 Posted : 02 February 2022 15:08:14(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,114
Man

Originally Posted by: western100 Go to Quoted Post
Has the January CET been published yet?

Not yet

Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready

Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline ARTzeman  
#98 Posted : 03 February 2022 11:13:16(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

January 2021    4.6c     Anomaly  0.8c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline lanky  
#99 Posted : 03 February 2022 11:56:20(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,114
Man

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

Not yet

Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready

Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2022

 

It's there now at 4.58C

Respect and congrats to Whether Idle with 4.60C

 

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Online Saint Snow  
#100 Posted : 03 February 2022 13:06:35(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,360
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2022

 

It's there now at 4.58C

Respect and congrats to Whether Idle with 4.60C

 

 

 

Congrats to WI.

I'll take 4.58, though 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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