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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 January 2022 18:33:07


 


4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade


* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I have a feeling that the correction will be greater than 0.3C. but I hope not!


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ARTzeman
28 January 2022 10:46:00

Met Office Hadley        4.9c         Anomaly         1.2c provisional to 27th


Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly          0.12c


Netweather                  4.69c       Anomaly          0.5c


Peasedown St John      4.57c       Anomaly          -0.88c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
29 January 2022 11:28:22

Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th


Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c


Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c


Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2022 13:03:19

Still a chance for it to rise a bit towards my 5.3c guess but a downward adjustment could scupper me!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Hungry Tiger
29 January 2022 14:43:45


Met Office Hadley        4.9c       Anomaly      1.2c provisional to 28th


Metcheck                     4.43c     Anomaly       0.28c


Netweather                  4.73c     Anomaly       0.54c


Peasedown St John      4.72c     Anomaly      -0.72c.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C


Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2022 18:10:49


 


I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

  Sorry!  Not laughing at your prediction, it’s your reaction that’s tickled me!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
30 January 2022 10:57:47

Met Office Hadley        5.1c         Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 29th


Metcheck                     4.50c       Anomaly         0.35c


Netweather                  4.9c         Anomaly         0.71c


Peasedown St John      4.57c       Anomaly         -0.88c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
31 January 2022 11:25:27

Met Office Hadley        5.1c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to 30th


Metcheck                     4.55c     Anomaly       0.40c


Netweather                  4.89c     Anomaly       0.7c


Peasedown St John     5.48c     Anomaly       0.3c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
31 January 2022 21:50:09

Well, it appears I'll have started this year in better shape than last, as luck would have it. Okay, it didn't take that much of it .


I can't say I'm filled with confidence in my Feb estimate - more signs of high pressure dominating somewhere in the vicinity of the UK, with hints of a drift right overhead for mid-month, in which case it will make a huge difference just how far north it is.


Jan has been far milder for much of Scotland than southern England, demonstrating the differential that can exist between stagnant conditions beneath it and a westerly flow on its northern flank. Had the high not clouded up 22nd-25th, the difference would probably have been even larger owing to more nights falling well below zero.


On the broad scale, the subtropical high pressure belt is exceptionally strong and far north. Only a handful of past winters can rival the current position. Funnily enough, one of those is the notorious 1976... best hope that's not an omen as from what I hear, the drought was tough enough back then and that was with a markedly smaller population (~56.2 million) than we have now (~68.2 million) - there are ~12 million more human beings consuming water each day!


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Bertwhistle
31 January 2022 22:10:57


 


I've bollocksed this one - Went for 6.0C


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Only by a bit! Whatever possessed me to go for 2.77 I'll question for some time. After the Christmas thing, I think I was willing January whit-ish!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Saint Snow
01 February 2022 09:59:55

Hoping for a hefty downwards adjustment 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Windy Willow
01 February 2022 14:07:56

I'm hoping the downward adjustment isn't too hefty 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Dingle Rob
01 February 2022 16:53:08

Has there ever been an upwards adjustment or is that not possible? 

rcharlick
02 February 2022 10:24:59

Every winter where I live (Basingstoke), the weather becomes less attractive as there are no decent spells of frost or even a snowfall event.


I am familiar with the synoptic set-ups that favoured more interesting winters and was expecting something more like 2010 this year but instead no break from the tedious mild pattern.


Is it safe to say that it will just continue to get warmer with eventually no cold outbreaks over winter and heatwaves from early summer onwards?  


The summers in recent years have not seen prolonged hot spells as of yet - there is minor variation between seasons, but still, based on my observations (last 12 years), more chance of colder conditions in Marck.


I would welcome comments on this and find out what other people think.  I look across the Atlantic and get excited by the freak snowfall events but know that these could result from higher temperatures than those historically recorded.

John S2
02 February 2022 11:28:44


Every winter where I live (Basingstoke), the weather becomes less attractive as there are no decent spells of frost or even a snowfall event.


I am familiar with the synoptic set-ups that favoured more interesting winters and was expecting something more like 2010 this year but instead no break from the tedious mild pattern.


Is it safe to say that it will just continue to get warmer with eventually no cold outbreaks over winter and heatwaves from early summer onwards? 

Originally Posted by: rcharlick 


Around 2005-2007 there were a minority on this forum predicting that cold winters would not happen again, then came the trio 08/09, 09/10 and the famous Dec 2010. Interestingly there were also a trio of cold winters 1984/85, 85/86. 86/87. These 2 clusters came around the same point in the double [Hale] solar cycle. It will be interesting to see whether a cold winter occurs around or shortly after the next Hale minimum, possibly around 2030.


Incidentally, we do not necessarily need solar minimum for severe winter months to occur. 1947 & 1979 were solar maximum winters.


I have no doubt that, despite the warming trend, we will see some more cold winter months. I expect the factors causing cold winter months to align favourably again at some point.

western100
02 February 2022 14:55:16
Has the January CET been published yet?
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
lanky
02 February 2022 15:08:14

Has the January CET been published yet?

Originally Posted by: western100 


Not yet


Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready


Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
03 February 2022 11:13:16

January 2021    4.6c     Anomaly  0.8c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
lanky
03 February 2022 11:56:20


 


Not yet


Looks like there are 2 days missing from the finalised data (16-17 Jan) but everything else is ready


Looking at the other 29 days and the provisional data for the missing days it looks as though the final figure will be not a million miles from 4.6C


Originally Posted by: lanky 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2022


 


It's there now at 4.58C


Respect and congrats to Whether Idle with 4.60C


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Saint Snow
03 February 2022 13:06:35


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2022


 


It's there now at 4.58C


Respect and congrats to Whether Idle with 4.60C


 


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


 


Congrats to WI.


I'll take 4.58, though 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
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