Met Office Hadley      16.03c      Anomaly     0.5c  provisional to 29th

Metcheck                   15.84c      Anomaly     -0.38c

Netweather                16.4c        Anomaly     0.21c

Peasedown St John    15.71c     Anomaly     -0.59c.

Met Office Hadley      16.04c      Anomaly     0.5c  provisional to 29th

Metcheck                   15.84c      Anomaly     -0.38c

Netweather                16.4c        Anomaly     0.21c

Peasedown St John    15.71c     Anomaly     -0.59c.

I think Hadley says 16.3 to yesterday Art. Dropping but still surprisingly high given the last 3 days averaged just 14.4.

A very cool final few days of August means the CET is dropping away quite quickly.

I now expect the final figure to come in around 15.83C.

Met Office Hadley        16.3c      Anomaly     0.5c provisional to 30th

Metcheck                     15.79c    Anomaly     -0.43c

Netweather                  16.36c    Anomaly     0.17c

Peasedown St John     15.61c     Anomaly    -0.65c. 

Pretty sure the outcome has been close to the coolest possible for the CET region, considering the setup to hand.

Yes, not even the coolest - that would have been an outcome in which the skies continued to clear at night.

Still, when that combination went on during the 2nd half of last week I was honestly in a state of dismay, as day after day came in well below the expectations of even just a few days prior. It's one thing to be wide of the mark because of the major driving forces behaving differently to what was expected, but quite another to be so because a high pressure cell centred itself maybe 500 miles too far to the northwest (a gnat's whisker on the global scale).

The CET projection has dropped by half a degree Celsius in the space of a week. That's half what I consider to be the 'okay result' error margin for the CET (1°C) and has sent my error from 0.78°C (pretty decent) to 1.28°C (not great).

It reminds me of when high pressure located a bit further south than anticipated in the first half of January this year, but such 'fickle fine detail' situations are more common in winter anyway, as differences of a few hundred miles can exchange a freezing inversion for balmy westerlies.

At this time of year, I never imagined such sensitivity could occur - that cloud cover could prove so stubborn under an anticyclone in late summer. Many of us have legitimately gone through anticyclonic gloom, in August!

Long story short, while we have our fun and games, this competition is also providing valuable insight into the challenge that long-term forecasting faces when it comes to finer details. I'm afraid it's never going to be possible to know with any confidence whether it will be a warm afternoon three weeks in advance!

...but hey, that would be a bit of a boring reality, right? 

Finalised value 15.83

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

A very cool final few days of August means the CET is dropping away quite quickly.

I now expect the final figure to come in around 15.83C.

On the button! How do you do that, to 1/100th of a degree?

Finalised value 15.83

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

So looks like HippyDave at 15.80 was nearest

Everyone else went too high with predictions

Nearly every sodding month, with 7-10 days to go (and with the forecasts as they stand at that point) I seem in a great place to finish very close. Then something changes - either colder or warmer than was being forecast - and I end up missing by much more than I'd expected. 

I stuffed up badly with this one.

Thought I'd gone for 16.5C - just checked and saw I went for 17.5C

oops.

I've had a terrible year.

Trying to remember if this is my only monthly win to date or if I sneaked one in a few years ago

I've had a fair few ropey months this year, so nice that one of my random guesses worked out. I imagine it'll be back to normal next month though!

Despite the result I think I'll probably still be languishing in the wrong part of the table

Well done, HippyDave

Congrats HippyDave 

Here are the charts for August and summer 2021

The maximum CET for August was 1C below average. The minimum was close to average.

For summer the CET ended up just below 2016 due to a cold final couple of days. Summer 2021 finished at 16.37C compared to 16.39C in 2016. Still the third warmest summer since 2006 in the CET area.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Annual CET competition - August update

Here is the latest competition table.

Only one change in the top 5 this month. sussex snow magnet is up to third.

Table

Annual CET competition - August update

Here is the latest competition table.

Only one change in the top 5 this month. sussex snow magnet is up to third.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table

I'voe done really badly thhis year.  Gone too high and then too low in some cases.

Anyway - All good fun.

Well done Hippy Dave!  

I missed the deadline for August and still managed to fall 9 places.