Latest CET tracker is showing a gradual rise. The next week looks close to average. By next weekend we might see things turning a little warmer. That remains to be seen.

Overall the summer CET could end up higher than last year (which might surprise some) and the second warmest since 2006. That depends on whether things warm up a bit in the final 10 days of this month.

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And yet so many people seem to think this is a mediocre to poor summer (certainly in SE England where I am). I think the fairly high rate of unsettled wet /dull weather coupled with an absence of the kind of outstanding heatwaves that have been de rigeur over the last few years have contributed. Ultimately people seem to have lost their spirit level for what a normal British summer looks like

Latest CET tracker is showing a gradual rise. The next week looks close to average. By next weekend we might see things turning a little warmer. That remains to be seen.

Overall the summer CET could end up higher than last year (which might surprise some) and the second warmest since 2006. That depends on whether things warm up a bit in the final 10 days of this month.

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Chart 1

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Chart 2

  It doesn’t surprise me.  In my neck of the woods it has been good so far.  We’ve had some 30c+ days and a lot of 25c days, with warm nights but I appreciate this hasn’t been nationwide.

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Met Office Hadley       16.3c      Anomaly     0.3c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    15.88c    Anomaly     -0.35c

Netweather                 16.4c      Anomaly     0.21c

Peasedown St John    15.48c    Anomaly     -0.82c. 

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And yet so many people seem to think this is a mediocre to poor summer (certainly in SE England where I am). I think the fairly high rate of unsettled wet /dull weather coupled with an absence of the kind of outstanding heatwaves that have been de rigeur over the last few years have contributed. Ultimately people seem to have lost their spirit level for what a normal British summer looks like

It has been mediocre to poor in parts of the SE, that’s simply the statistical truth. But it has been warmish. It’s been relatively good in other regions. 

The main issue has been the rain, and to a lesser extent the cloud.

SE / Central S region rainfall: June 87.8mm, July 78.7mm (Aug so far similar though already 96mm at my vineyard)

Sunshine: June 193.4 hrs, July 206.7 hrs

So significantly wetter than average for both months, significantly duller in June and average sunshine in July. Then a very very wet first decade of August. 

It’s not felt as warm as the stats suggest, but I think that’s because of the pattern of a single extended heatwave rather than recurring mini hot spells. So we have gone long periods without anything at or above “summer day” level of 25C.

 

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Met Office Hadley      16.4c      Anomaly     0.4c provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                   15.18c    Anomaly     -0.2c

Netweather                16.5c      Anomaly     0.31c

Peasedown St John   15.5c     Anomaly      -0.75c.     

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The rainfall totals in SE England for June and July have been double those of last year. So that is certainly one reason why many people in the south will perhaps be thinking this summer is not as good as last year, despite temperatures being warmer in those two months than 2020.

Rainfall, SE England

2021 June 98mm, July 83mm, Total 181mm

2020 June 54mm, July 39mm, Total 93mm

The situation in Central England is quite different. July rainfall was similar to last year but June was only just above half that of last year. So overall 2021 rainfall for June and July was 20% lower than last year, whereas for SE England it was double last year. 

Rainfall, Central England

2021 June 42mm, July 70mm, Total 112mm

2020 June 77mm, July 63mm, Total 140mm

If we go further north to the Southern Scotland region we see that last year June and July were incredibly wet. This year rainfall is down 70% on the same period last year and is half the figure for southern England. 

Rainfall Southern Scotland

2021 June 44mm, July 42mm, Total 86mm

2020 June 132mm, July 166mm, Total 298mm

So I think the rainfall figures are playing a much bigger factor this year than temperatures in people's perception of the summer so far.

Looking at the number of days above 25C at my location for June and July, the figures are as follows:

2021 June 8 (0 above 30C), July 10 (4 above 30C), Total 18 (4 above 30C)

2020 June 4 (2 above 30C), July 6 (1 above 30C), Total 10 (3 above 30C)

We can see that there have been many more days above 25C in June and July this year compared to last year.

Of course the first half of August was hot last year. I recorded 9 days above 25C with 6 consecutive days above 30C. In the second half of August the temperature did not exceed 23C. This year there have been no days above 25C so far in August.

So looking at the summer as a whole to date there have been 18 days above 25C this year and 19 last year, so very similar. The number of days above 30C is 4 this year and 9 last year. That run of 6 days greater than 30C is clearly very high in the memory of many people.

If we do get some warmer weather in the second half of August then there will be more 25C+ days this summer compared to last year.

To me (these days), a good summer is dry with temps around 25c and mild nights, which is what we’ve had here this year.  We’ve had very little rain and most of that has been from downpours in thunder storms.  There have been no days of endless drizzle.  We have had a fair few days of cloud and hazy sunshine, like today, but even then the temp has stayed in low to mid 20’s.  So it gets a thumbs up from me. 

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I think what is skewing the summer CET is the very warm nights,imby we have not recorded a minimum in single figures since 26th June and only 4 single figure nights in the whole of the summer period so far. This is unprecedended in the 50 years or so. So i would say the average minimums have been well above average,even warmer than in the legendry hot summers i dare say but the maximums have been close to average which gives the impression this summer has not been that great in terms of warmth.

Met Office Hadley       16.5c     Anomaly     0.4c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    15.98c   Anomaly     -0.26c

Netweather                 16.35c   Anomaly     0.36c

Peasedown St John    15.48c   Anomaly    -0.65c.   

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14.4C (-0.1C) here halfway through

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I think what is skewing the summer CET is the very warm nights,imby we have not recorded a minimum in single figures since 26th June and only 4 single figure nights in the whole of the summer period so far. This is unprecedended in the 50 years or so. So i would say the average minimums have been well above average,even warmer than in the legendry hot summers i dare say but the maximums have been close to average which gives the impression this summer has not been that great in terms of warmth.

Interesting the first three nights of August here were down to 5C with some ground frosts in very favoured areas.
https://weather.westerdale.info/climatedataout.html

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I think what is skewing the summer CET is the very warm nights,imby we have not recorded a minimum in single figures since 26th June and only 4 single figure nights in the whole of the summer period so far. This is unprecedended in the 50 years or so. So i would say the average minimums have been well above average,even warmer than in the legendry hot summers i dare say but the maximums have been close to average which gives the impression this summer has not been that great in terms of warmth.

That is not actually correct. The minimum CET anomaly was lower than the maximum anomaly in both June and July. 

The June minimum was the 13th highest on record, below years such as 2003 and 1976.

The July minimum was the 7th highest on record, just ahead of 1976 but below 1995 and 2006.

Met Office Hadley      16.4c     Anomaly     0.4c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                   15.88c   Anomaly      -0.34c

Netweather                16.46c   Anomaly       0.27c   

Peasedown St John    15.58c   Anomaly     -0.72c.  

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Met Office Hadley        16.3c        Anomaly      0.3c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     15.87c      Anomaly      -0.36c

Netweather                  16.42c      Anomaly       0.23c

Peasedown St John     15.6c      Anomaly        -0.7c.

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Met Office Hadley        16.3c        Anomaly      0.3c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     15.87c      Anomaly      -0.36c

Netweather                  16.42c      Anomaly       0.23c

Peasedown St John     15.6c      Anomaly        -0.7c.

Disappointing to see it falling, especially as it continues to be warm locally (22C yesterday, min of 17.0 last night).

With the hoped-for warm or even hot spell now apparently fading into dreamland apart from 1 or 2 days (due to this niggling persistence of anything anywhere warm heading our way being cut off by all manner of bizarre synoptic set-ups) any chance of a double 17 month also seem to have gone.

All hope is not lost though- for a sub 16 summer we'd need sub 14.8 for August. Even with downjustments that would seem unlikely. So the run of 16+ summers looks likely to extend to 6.

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Met Office Hadley       16.3c      Anomaly      0.4c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                    15.85c    Anomaly      -0.36c

Netweather                 16.43c    Anomaly      0.24c

Peasedown St John    15.56c    Anomaly      -0.74c.       

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Met Office Hadley        16.3c      Anomaly     0.4c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                     15.90c    Anomaly     -0.33c

Netweather                  16.44c    Anomaly      0.25c

Peasedown St John     15.6c      Anomaly     -0.85c.

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Latest CET tracker shows the August CET finishing at 16.2C.

A warmer final 10 days of the month but only enough to bring the CET up to the 1971-2000 mean.

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Chart 2

Latest CET tracker shows the August CET finishing at 16.2C.

A warmer final 10 days of the month but only enough to bring the CET up to the 1971-2000

Chart 1

Chart 2

What strange charts. August is a slight cooling month so it looks very bizarre to see it gradually getting warmer as it progresses. That line graph is what you'd expect one of the spring months to produce.

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