NHC says a tropical storm likely in atlantic moving our way

12z GEFS is a tad better, 850-wise. The op is rubbish but I tend just to look at the ensembles.

On the TWO view I thought they looked slightly worse TBH. 

 

On the TWO view I thought they looked slightly worse TBH. 

Less protracted cool spell. Mean is close to seasonal average for most of the run. But a couple of quite wet clusters.

NHC says a tropical storm likely in atlantic moving our way

That’s what we need. Something to disrupt the pattern. Particularly if it takes that track and erodes the AH from the South West. Not enough low pressure in SE USA this summer so far. 

 

That’s what we need. Something to disrupt the pattern. Particularly if it takes that track and erodes the AH from the South West. Not enough low pressure in SE USA this summer so far. 

It doesn't make any significant impression on the GFS or ECM 12z, though to stretch chart analysis, it could be the foundation of the LP over Scotland on Thu 9th

I've also recorded it in the Hurricane and Cyclone season thread which beacuse of a quiet season was in danger of disappearing. If as likely it becomes a TS it will be called Dolly - please remember there are more bad jokes than good ones on that name

A much more settled picture on the 0Z GFS this morning.

Yes, this cooler and unsettled interlude has its days numbered and high pressure looks set to settle things down as things warm up a little during the day at least.

Jetstream hangs on across the UK to Fri 10th after which it fades before resuming well to the north with occasional bursts in the Med. That remains the situation until Fri 17th when fragments start appearing nearer the UK and just a hint that it'll be back in force Tue 21st. So make the most of week 2!

GFS brings a depression across Scotland 995mb Fri 10th (which might be the remains of TD5/storm Dolly as discussed above) before showing ridge of HP aligned SW-NE for all the following week, before breaking down Sun 19th first with LP from Poland then one from the Atlantic with the UK just about hanging on to HP in a col in between

GEFS in the S, cool for now, about the seasonal norm Thu 9th with a little rain around; cool again and dry but rising to norm Thu 16th after which runs seriously diverge and maybe a little rain. Scotland and N England similar but for a 'little rain' read 'quite a bit of rain'.

ECM like GFS but LP on Fri 10th downplayed, while the following HP is more of a centre than a ridge.

Steady as she goes. No real change this morning.

Nice to see that forecast higher pressure has settled down the MO thread already, though the weather will take a day or two longer. 

Nice to see that forecast higher pressure has settled down the MO thread already, though the weather will take a day or two longer. 

Looking dry again this morning:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
Nothing like Mooms’ Monsoon

That looks oddly different to the same one I was looking at.

Maybe a coordinates thing. Mine may be more inland hence more rain. 

Both same overall pattern though, and a warm up into mid July.

ECM warms up but then goes zonal and unsettled again. I assume that will be an outlier:

Getting a bit warmer, though the focus of the rain in week 2 shifts from the NW to the S coast linked to much wetter conditions over France. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. This matches GFS rather than ECM synoptics

GFS - still a shallow depression hanging back Thu/Fri 9/10th across central UK after which HP across the whole country for a few days broken up Thu 16th by LP from continent linking eventually with Atlantic to give broad trough at first mainly in NW then for all UK Mon 20th. HP looks likely to re-assert itself Wed 22nd.

GEFS - as yesterday, cool for now, recovering to normal by about Thu 16th (but a short warmer spell for the S around Thu 9th). Rain also associated with this feature on the 9th in N of England and Scotland.then a dry spell before some more general rain from about the 16th

ECM - LP 9th/10th more shallow than GFS, but the HP to follow takes a different course from Tue 14th, soon moving southwards and depressions are then more defined and more mobile running across N of Scotland with a deep LP mid Atlantic 980mb mid Atlantic Thu 16th . The 'continental LP' quoted for GFS is placed in E Poland, not W Germany

Continues to look old school to me. Turning into a very interesting summer.

Continues to look old school to me. Turning into a very interesting summer.

The relative lack of heat and in particular hot nights, has certainly been a welcome change from recent years (down here). 

GFS and ECM seem to be moving to a warm up to above average in the day 8-10 day range although going downhill a bit after that with more in the way of unsettled weather. Before then there's a few days of cool 850s before a recovery to at or just above normal in the South, further North the warmer blip doesn't really make it and you have to go a few more days until you hit the warmer air.

Not dry, with some showers around, with slightly more rainfall in Northern and Western regions as you'd expect but nothing unusual or prolonged judging by the GFS ens. I guess with the warmer air in the south there's a chance that any showers could be heavier than the ens suggest and/or where the cooler and warmer air boundary is that could pep things up too. 

All in all a pleasant enough summer outlook, although not one for those who like days and days of heat and hot nights. I guess I should flag that GFS is showing what for a softie southerner are rather chilly day time maxes for Scotland in particular, for the next week or so although as temps are 18-21 down here it's sometimes hard to remember it can be very different weather outside of my back yard

That's quite a vicious little low at the end of the ECM run, is that the ex TS?

It looks rather like an ex-TS at T+240 but there's no corresponding TS feature in the T+216 so generated in situ like Dolly* was? And certainly too far in the future for anything related to current storm Edouard.

* See note in the Hurricane thread for the short-lived Dolly being missed; the current storm heading into the Atlantic is indeed Edouard.

Drier 06z on GEFS:

The relatively dry and warm ENS for Fort William (more so than London vs averages) and declining wind speeds suggests to me a North Atlantic blocking pattern and quite a few runs with Easterlies: