#Teddy has formed in the central tropical Atlantic - the earliest 19th Atlantic named storm formation on record. Prior record was October 4, 2005 (Unnamed). Unnamed storm was added in post-season reanalysis in 2005. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/SAnhkoHKs5

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 14, 2020

Direct hit on Bermuda from Paulette. You can see the island through the eye! Incredible!

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL172020

For the 2nd time on record, the Atlantic has 5+ tropical cyclones (tropical depression (TD) or stronger) simultaneously: #Hurricane #Paulette, TD #Rene, Tropical Storm #Sally, Tropical Storm #Teddy and TD21. Other time was from September 11-14, 1971. pic.twitter.com/9ET1OoxE6f

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 14, 2020

Think its almost guaranteed we will beat 2005 now.

With an active hurricane season and low arctic sea ice it bodes very well for a cold winter this year.

Think its almost guaranteed we will beat 2005 now.

With an active hurricane season and low arctic sea ice it bodes very well for a cold winter this year.

 

But what about the what appears to be a failure of the easterly QBO?

 

But what about the what appears to be a failure of the easterly QBO?

I suppose that would work against a cold winter.

The winter of 05/06 was mostly cold, but dry & anticyclonic I seem to recall (there was a shortlived mild wet spell in mid February, followed by cold, wintery, but not too bitterly cold NE'erlies).

The winter of 05/06 was mostly cold, but dry & anticyclonic I seem to recall (there was a shortlived mild wet spell in mid February, followed by cold, wintery, but not too bitterly cold NE'erlies).

And bucketloads of snow at the end of February and the beginning of March. 

I'll try to remember that prediction of a long-term connection to a cold winter when we we get our usual slushfest ... but the Atlantic keeps on giving for now. Yesterday briefly there were FIVE named storms in action which as only happened once before, in 1971, but Rene hasnow dropped out.

Sally is the one to watch, still intensifying and with the actual position of a sharp turn to the north being critical when it makes landfall, maybe just east of New Orleans, maybe not; maybe cat 2, maybe higher. Main problem predicted is the amount of rain which is now 10-20".

The others are all out in the open ocean. Paulette heading for us as a hurricane but forecast to do a sudden turn southwards before it gets here. Teddy to become major hurricane in mid Atlantic, could affect Bermuda, Vicky following in Teddy's wake but quickly come and quickly go - Teddy has probably used up all the warm water.

And there are still two potential disturbances, one  near Africa, one in the Gulf, bth with moderate odds for development.

 

And bucketloads of snow at the end of February and the beginning of March. 

Ah yes, the late Philip Eden described the prolonged easterlies at the end of February as being perhaps the last proper easterly setup. To this date, it's the last time we had a repeating easterly pattern, as in the "old days". 14 days in a row of snowfall here...

EDIT: And that was of course early 2005, before the manic hurricane season. The following winter was its usual write-off down here.

Interesting to see this morning that the NHC have picked up on that potential low near Portugal that Q has mentioned... 20% chance so far.

Sally getting sheered but that is also preventing her from making landfall, so huge rainfall totals mounting up

Sally getting sheered but that is also preventing her from making landfall, so huge rainfall totals mounting up

 

The Cat 1 hurricane (Sally) is moving Northwards at 2 mph - you could walk faster than this!! Never knew hurricanes move slow but it's not expected to strengthen though!

 

The Cat 1 hurricane (Sally) is moving Northwards at 2 mph - you could walk faster than this!! Never knew hurricanes move slow but it's not expected to strengthen though!

"Redneck Riviera" getting record rainfall amounts

 

"Redneck Riviera" getting record rainfall amounts

ironically the rain itself isn't especially heavy,  just persistent. Rain rates are between 6-24mm p/hr with isolated burst upwards 50mm.

Still watching but all seems to be much as forecast yesterday. 

Still watching but all seems to be much as forecast yesterday. 

Poor forecast for Sally actually - the track shifted eastwards and Sally was meant to stay a cat 1 storm winds of 80mph but it strengthened to a cat 2 storm winds of 105mph.

Paulette took in large quantities of wildfire smoke which had drifted across he US but has gone extratropical and will die out though it may give the Azores a rough time first.

Sally made landfall as cat 2 in Alabama and caused most damage through flooding, both storm surge and rainfall (30" Bellview in Florida, 22" Orange Beach in Alabama)

Teddy struggling a bit with wind shear but expected to be resilient enough to make cat 3 and menace Canada (now showing up on GFS chartviewer in that area)

Vicky on the way out.

90L (Gulf) and 98L (off Africa) both with good odds of development, the latter expected to run north of the Caribbean islands ( a popular sort of track this year). First to develop will be Wilfrid, then on to Greek letters - but still only one major hurricane, unlike other storm-ridden seasons which had up to five by this stage,

99L (off Portugal) not expected to take on tropical character but that won't prevent it from pushing showers/thinderstorms up to the S Coast.

Teddy's eye opens. Rapid intensification likely today, before shearing begins

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL202020

 #Teddy is now a Category 4 #hurricane with maximum winds of 140 mph - the second Cat. 4 hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season to date (Laura was the other). Most recent Atlantic season with 2+ Cat. 4-5s by September 17 is 2017 (Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria). pic.twitter.com/12HYfWtCFB

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 17, 2020