GFS 6Z in FI is showing a Scandi high and an easterly. Long time since I've seen that! Hints of a pattern change or just a random outlier? In any case, I doubt there'd be too much cold air coming our way .....

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GFS 6Z in FI is showing a Scandi high and an easterly. Long time since I've seen that! Hints of a pattern change or just a random outlier? In any case, I doubt there'd be too much cold air coming our way .....

I fully expect this kind of pattern change and it would not be a surprise in the slightest for March to be a cold month.

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Yeh, the charts have hinted at this for the past few days into FI. Seems like we go from a very direct and organised Jetstream to a wandering one, with alot of residual systems left in limbo. Looks like we are hopefully coming to the end of what has been one of the worst wet periods Ive ever known.

I was looking at some weatehr stations in mid wales, who have had over 450mm of rain this month. 3 times their monthly average.

There hasnt really been much let up since September/october. which is quite astonishing.

As the continental landmass starts to warm up, we usually see the European monsoon kick in, and air rushing out from European high pressures. ID say this usually brings cold weather, but the continent is relatively warm or rather not very cold. Therefor we could be heading for a decent spring, rather than a very cold one. If we get onto a warm and very dry breeze from the east, it could bethe antidote to the very very wet ground we are currently surrounded by..

we live in hope.

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I fully expect this kind of pattern change and it would not be a surprise in the slightest for March to be a cold month.

Whether it does turn cold or it remains mild, I think all that most of us here will be wanting after all that has happened is for March to be a mostly dry month.

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Saturday continues to look potentially nasty as a powerful system rattles through.

Gusts 80 mph over the SW as it smashes in.

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Storm Ellen here we come?

Well according to my Collins Weather Guide, March is typically the driest month of the year (for London area anyway) so there is some hope for a welcome change as we usher in the new month. (Though strangely I always think of March as quite a stormy month for some reason).

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Saturday continues to look potentially nasty as a powerful system rattles through.

Gusts 80 mph over the SW as it smashes in.

Something the ICON model picked up on 2 days ago and have been keeping an eye on since.

Seems it is being largely overlooked in favour of the upcoming slushfesh. 

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Something the ICON model picked up on 2 days ago and have been keeping an eye on since.

Seems it is being largely overlooked in favour of the upcoming slushfesh. 

Not being overlooked here in S Hampshire weather HQ Ian. Sat pm still looking nasty with a wide swathe of 70mph gusts.

 

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I am actually looking forward to a slush fest - just to prove it was winter, then after another bout of wind, less welcome than if it came from the backside or mouth of our politicians, we might just see a Cool or balmy Spring, brimstone butterflies, bluebells, and banks of primroses, amid that bright green you only get from new spring grass...ah, it cannot come soon enough!!!

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Jet stream strong to S of UK Sun 1st - Tue 3rd and resuming Mon 9th - Tue 10th but N of the UK; weaker in between and after with looping and splitting.

GFS shows Atlantic stuff, often cold NW at first with notably deep LP Sun 1st 960 mb Scottish borders; then easing up gradually with more W/SW influence and Influence of HP from the S increasing to 1025mb covering the country on Tue 11th. That moves slowly off to W Europe and unlike yesterday, not a N-S ridge but 'flattened' with Wly or SWly winds continuing across Shetland and further north.

ECM generally agrees but makes more of small secondary lows moving up the Channel Thu 5th - Sat 7th

GEFS  shows mild and wet peak 29th then cool and wet to 10th Mar after which milder and drier; more variability between run than in yesterday's charts. Rain most persistent in S & W.

 

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06z run - this little LP feature could be of interest on it's northern edge with uppers at or just below -5c @ 850hpa: - if this comes about, could be a snow event for the south or south west!?

 

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Jet stream strong to S of UK Sun 1st - Tue 3rd and resuming Mon 9th - Tue 10th but N of the UK; weaker in between and after with looping and splitting.

GFS shows Atlantic stuff, often cold NW at first with notably deep LP Sun 1st 960 mb Scottish borders; then easing up gradually with more W/SW influence and Influence of HP from the S increasing to 1025mb covering the country on Tue 11th. That moves slowly off to W Europe and unlike yesterday, not a N-S ridge but 'flattened' with Wly or SWly winds continuing across Shetland and further north.

ECM generally agrees but makes more of small secondary lows moving up the Channel Thu 5th - Sat 7th

GEFS  shows mild and wet peak 29th then cool and wet to 10th Mar after which milder and drier; more variability between run than in yesterday's charts. Rain most persistent in S & W.

 

Any centre of low pressure which crosses the Scottish Borders with a central pressure of around 960 mb would give us our lowest air pressure of this winter at Edinburgh Gogarbank since we aren't all that far to the north of that area here in Edinburgh.

That would then make it even more remarkable if that particular system doesn't end up being officially named as Storm Ellen by the official agents who are involved in that naming process especially as it is still looking as though parts of the Irish Republic could be hit by winds from that, which would have led me to believe that Met Eireann would be likely to officially name that system or at the very least, be involved in doing so.

 

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Why give it a name - it’s a deep area of low pressure. The whole naming thing is ridiculous enough without having a debate on whether a particular low pressure qualifies for one or not.
IMHO of course.

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Quite a few easterlies in the 06z ensembles and the average of the GEFS shows this to some degree. Will it lead to anything we will have to wait and see given the PV is looking so strong.

Martin

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Why give it a name - it’s a deep area of low pressure. The whole naming thing is ridiculous enough without having a debate on whether a particular low pressure qualifies for one or not.
IMHO of course.

As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.

I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.

 

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As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.

I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.

 

Or no names at all. It’s all a bit farcical.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png

The very last frame of FI haha, but its there to discuss.
Suggestions of the huge area of low pressure to our NW to be on the move eastwards towards Northern Russia promoting a rise in pressure to our north west and introducing a northerly flow for us, with some very cold air suggested bottled up in the flow as well.
It 'll all be off the charts in a few hours though!

 

As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.

I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.

 

Cue the "Brexit"-style squabble on which country could provide the list of names. Perhaps each country can have a turn every year starting with the UK next year, then Spain the year after, etc. Imagine us trying to pronounce Germany's turn (even though they've been naming storms for decades). 

Back to the here and now, The latest batch of outputs seem to show that weekend low (Jorge) taking more of a NE-ward track and passing through Scotland rather than slicing eastwards over the middle part of the UK. In turn, that would take the strongest westerly windfield away from Southern England.

Hope it carries on trending that way. 

Next week still looks generally changeable but not as markedly so with that glimmer of hope still there in the horizon. 

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Cue the "Brexit"-style squabble on which country could provide the list of names. Perhaps each country can have a turn every year starting with the UK next year, then Spain the year after, etc. Imagine us trying to pronounce Germany's turn (even though they've been naming storms for decades). 

Back to the here and now, The latest batch of outputs seem to show that weekend low (Jorge) taking more of a NE-ward track and passing through Scotland rather than slicing eastwards over the middle part of the UK. In turn, that would take the strongest westerly windfield away from Southern England.

Hope it carries on trending that way. 

Next week still looks generally changeable but not as markedly so with that glimmer of hope still there in the horizon. 

I'm not advocating in any way that Britain should somehow rejoin the EU. However, I do think that we should at least be able to co-operate with our former EU partners in terms of being able to run a common European system for naming this storms, along with other European countries which are not necessarily part of the EU.

 

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