Regardless of the fact that this incoming fresh easterly is cold, cool, mild or warm its encouraging that provided the fronts stay to the south the air will be dry...hugely welcome, especially if we get with some sunshine after the past several sodden months. 

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Regardless of the fact that this incoming fresh easterly is cold, cool, mild or warm its encouraging that provided the fronts stay to the south the air will be dry...hugely welcome, especially if we get with some sunshine after the past several sodden months. 

Hear hear, Steve. I think we could all do with a break from the rain.

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What a record warmth for stratosphere if this comes about. Given last SSW temps rose by 65c @ 10hpa over the North Pole and this looks like even more of a major one as temperatures rise to +4c from -76c that would be a rise of almost 80c @ 10 hpa - so surely this would be enough to send the atmosphere into reverse and kills the PV:

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A couple of days of W-lies, then the forecast HP starts from mid Atlantic Fri 20th and forms a sort of ridge across Scotland to Scandi lasting to Thu 26th with mostly E-lies over England  Fri 27th sees an intense HP 1050mb over SE Europe allowing slack LP to move up from S over Britain. This combines forces with an Atlantic LP to yield a 1000mb centre over Ireland Thu 2nd.

BBC last night had this ridge just extending from Scandi with W-lies over Scotland and E-lies in the Channel, and after a cold few days has v. warm temps by Wed 25th

ECM somewhere between these two for the first week, and after Thu 25th has ill-defined HP over the UK and Atlantic, not E/SE Europe

GEFS temp profile more consistent than yesterday; cool around Sun 22nd, mild around 25th, cool around Mon 30th, a little rain in some runs, mostly after 30th - in the S temps not far from average but swings more pronounced in N.

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Looking at the fax charts today, I noticed that sub 510 dam weather is sweeping down from Russia across much of Central and Southern Europe early next week, around that Scandi high pressure Some big drops in temperature from a late spring feel to mid winter are likely. In fact some areas might get some of their coldest weather of the 'winter'.

Belgrade for example ....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/792680 

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