Sunday 28 Jun - Tuesday 7 Jul

The end of June will see a change of weather for much of the UK as it becomes cooler, breezier and more changeable. This will bring a chance of showers, especially for western parts, and also some more persistent rain, most likely through central and southern areas. There will however still be some drier and sunny interludes. This changeable weather continues into July with sunshine, showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain possible for many. The rain however looks to be mainly in the northwest where it may be cooler also. The best of any drier and brighter weather will be across the south and east of the UK. Breezy conditions continuing, particularly for the north. Temperatures mostly around average for the time of year.

Wednesday 8 Jul - Wednesday 22 Jul

Confidence through this period becomes low but signals show that a continuation of the changeable conditions are likely at first. This means spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes, the best of the drier weather in the south and east. Later in the period it is possible that there will be longer, more settled spells allowing temperatures to potentially rise a little above average, perhaps becoming warm at times near the end of the period. However due to the time of year there is the chance of triggering some thundery interludes, and if so these will be most likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The met office have issued a level 3 heatwave alert for East and West Midlands

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 08:41 on Wed 24 Jun 2020

There is a 90 % probability of Heat-Health criteria being met between 0900 on Wednesday and 2100 on Friday in parts of England.

A period of south-easterly winds is going to draw warm air from the continent which, combined with almost uninterrupted sunshine, is going to bring day time temperatures in the low 30s on Wednesday and Thursday, with night time temperatures often remaining in the high teens. Some thundery showers will break out over parts of the southwest overnight on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures. The risk will then transfer north and east across the rest of England during day time on Friday, yet perhaps allowing another hot afternoon in parts of East England and East Midlands.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Showery and cooler to start July, then warmer.

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Wednesday 24 June – Sunday 28 June

Thundery breakdown to heat and sunshine

Friday is when we will see the weather pattern begin to change. Hot and muggy air will start to give way to somewhat fresher and showery weather from the west. However, the heat could spark a few lively thunderstorms for a time with local downpours and frequent lightning. This weekend is set to be fresher and breezier with winds from the west or southwest. Many areas will also have showers, some heavy. However, there should also be sunshine at times.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 5 July

Breezy with showers. Feeling fresher

Next week, the weather will have a fresher feel. Winds will be brisk at times and from the west or south-west. The brisk winds will also bring showers to many areas. Fronts are likely to bring occasionally lengthier outbreaks of rain as well. However, there will also be some drier and sunnier interludes. The best of the sunshine is likely to be over eastern and southern areas of England.

Over western and northern parts of the UK, rainfall amounts are likely to be above the seasonal average. However, given the brisk winds, any heavy showers should move through fairly quickly, lowering the risk of any flooding. Temperatures next week are likely to alternate around the seasonal average in England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland are looking cool at times, though, with temperatures slightly below average.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 19 July

Unsettled at first then calmer and warmer

Up until around mid-month, the weather is looking changeable with showers and rain at times. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near or slightly above average with some drier days mixed-in too. Winds are likely to be often from the west but perhaps occasionally from the north. Therefore, we are unlikely to experience any prolonged hot conditions through the first half of July. Temperatures are favoured to alternate around the seasonal average.

From mid-month, there are signs that high pressure could return, bringing a change to drier and calmer weather during the second half of the month. Under the sunshine and lighter winds, temperatures are likely to climb above average again, with some very warm or even hot days returning.

Further ahead

Will temperatures start to rise again as we go through July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 29 Jun - Wednesday 8 Jul

A breezy and unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year. There will however still be some drier and sunny interludes. This changeable weather continues into July with sunshine, showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain possible for many. The rain however looks to be mainly in the northwest where it may also be cooler. The best of any drier and brighter weather will be across the south and east of the UK. Breezy conditions continuing, particularly for the north. Temperatures should mostly be around average for the time of year.

Wednesday 8 Jul - Wednesday 22 Jul

Confidence through this period becomes low but signals show that a continuation of the changeable conditions are likely at first. This means spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes, the best of the drier weather in the south and east. Later in the period it is possible that there will be longer, more settled spells allowing temperatures to potentially rise a little above average, perhaps becoming warm at times near the end of the period. However due to the time of year there is the chance of triggering some thundery interludes, and if so these will be most likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 30 Jun - Thursday 9 Jul

A breezy and unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year. There will however still be some drier and sunny interludes. This changeable weather continues into July with sunshine, showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain possible for many. The rain however looks to be mainly in the northwest where it may also be cooler. The best of any drier and brighter weather will be across the south and east of the UK. Breezy conditions continuing, particularly for the north. Temperatures should mostly be around average for the time of year.

Friday 10 Jul - Friday 24 Jul

Confidence through this period becomes low but signals show that a continuation of the changeable conditions are likely at first. This means spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes, the best of the drier weather in the south and east. Later in the period it is possible that there will be longer, more settled spells allowing temperatures to potentially rise a little above average, perhaps becoming warm at times near the end of the period. However due to the time of year there is the chance of triggering some thundery interludes, and if so these will be most likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 1 Jul - Friday 10 Jul

A breezy and unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. Temperatures are likely to vary around average for the time of year though the west will be mainly rather cool. There will, however, still be some drier and sunny interludes. Changeable weather will probably continue through the first weekend of July although the rain may become more confined to the west and northwest with the best of any drier, brighter weather more likely across the south and east of the UK. Into the following week there are signs that the weather may become drier, more settled and warmer again, particularly for southern and many central parts.

Saturday 11 Jul - Saturday 25 Jul

It looks as if relatively dry, settled and warm conditions may be established at the start of this period, bringing some sunshine for most parts, particular southern and central areas. The northwest may still be more changeable with nearer normal temperatures. For the rest of July confidence is very low. However, conditions will more likely be rather changeable, bringing spells of rain or showers, mixed with drier and brighter interludes. Later in the period it is possible that there will be some longer, more settled spells allowing it to become warm at times. As is usual this time of year, there is always the chance of some thundery interludes, with these being more likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A showery and cool start to July, then warmer

_________________________________

Saturday 27 June – Sunday 5 July

Fresher than recently with blustery showers

This weekend will be noticeably cooler than recent days with fresh to strong westerly winds. Temperatures will be up to 10 degrees Celsius lower than recently. Much of the UK will see a mixture of sunny intervals and blustery showers through the weekend. The north and west, in particular, will see more prolonged rainfall at times. Some locations in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Cumbria are likely to see well over 50mm of rain. Some spots here could see close to a month's worth of rainfall within the weekend.

Next week, the cool and unsettled theme to the weather continues. Monday will see further showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest in the north of the UK. It will feel rather chilly with brisk westerly winds and temperatures staying a little below the seasonal average. However, Tuesday is likely to be less wet and less windy with showers easing. Temperatures are expected to be nearer the seasonal average by then.

Through much of the rest of next week, low pressure areas sweeping in from the Atlantic will keep the weather unsettled. There are likely to be further showers and bands of rain with temperatures near or a little below average. There will be some drier and sunnier interludes albeit rather short-lived.

However, by the very end of the week we may start to see somewhat calmer and drier weather.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

Turning drier, calmer and warmer again

After a wet and breezy start to July, the weather looks like turning drier and calmer again for some. Over England and Wales, a high pressure ridge is likely to extend from the south-west. Therefore, England and Wales have the highest chance of seeing a return to drier, calmer and warmer weather in the first half of July.

Scotland and Northern Ireland could still be influenced by low pressure areas at times. Therefore, a variable week of weather is more likely for Scotland and Northern Ireland with rain at times but also some drier and sunnier interludes. Overall, much of the UK should be less wet and less breezy than the preceding week.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

Warm and dry at first, showery later.

Mid-July is currently shaping up to be often dry and relatively calm with temperatures above average. Current indications are that high pressure will move further north across the UK. Therefore, dry, calm and warm weather should extend from England and Wales into Scotland and Northern Ireland as well. Strong sunshine can still be expected at times with high UV levels.

However, after mid-month, there are signs that high pressure will weaken. Therefore, we can expect an increase in the number of showery or even thundery days. It should still be warm or very warm at times, though, with a lack of cooling westerly or northerly winds.

Confidence in the forecast becomes low after mid-month. There are chances that high pressure stays nearer to the British Isles after mid-month. If high pressure does persist, it would end up staying much drier for many.

Further ahead

The weather currently looks changeable through the coming weeks. We will take another look to see if we can still expect a return of warmer weather through July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

That BBC forecast is sort of what I expect July to be. I cannot see us having a prolonged period of dry weather, but I can see temperatures trending above the mean for many places after a cool start. Wouldn't surprise me if we saw a couple more 2/3 day plumes too.

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Thursday 2 Jul - Saturday 11 Jul

An unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. There may be a very windy, wet spell for many late next week. Temperatures will vary around average for the time of year though the west will be mainly rather cool. There will, however, still be some drier and sunny interludes. Changeable weather will probably continue through the first weekend of July although the rain may become more confined to the west and northwest with the best of any drier, brighter weather more likely across the south and east of the UK. Into the following week there are signs that the weather may become drier, more settled and warmer again, particularly for southern and many central parts.

Sunday 12 Jul - Sunday 26 Jul

It looks as if relatively dry, settled and warm conditions may be established at the start of this period, bringing some sunshine for most parts, particular southern and central areas. The northwest may still be more changeable with nearer normal temperatures. For the rest of July confidence is very low. However, conditions will more likely be rather changeable, bringing spells of rain or showers, mixed with drier and brighter interludes. Later in the period it is possible that there will be some longer, more settled spells allowing it to become warm at times. As is usual this time of year, there is always the chance of some thundery interludes, with these being more likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 3 Jul - Sunday 12 Jul

An unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. There may be a very windy, wet spell for many to end the week. Temperatures will vary around average for the time of year though the west will be mainly rather cool. There will, however, still be some drier and sunny interludes. Changeable weather will probably continue through the first weekend of July although the rain may become more confined to the west and northwest with the best of any drier, brighter weather more likely across the south and east of the UK. Into the following week there are signs that the weather may become drier, more settled and warmer again, particularly for southern and many central parts.

Monday 13 Jul - Monday 27 Jul

It looks as if relatively dry, settled and warm conditions may be established at the start of this period, bringing some sunshine for most parts, particular southern and central areas. The northwest may still be more changeable with nearer normal temperatures. For the rest of July confidence is very low. However, conditions will more likely be rather changeable, bringing spells of rain or showers, mixed with drier and brighter interludes. Later in the period it is possible that there will be some longer, more settled spells allowing it to become warm at times. As is usual this time of year, there is always the chance of some thundery interludes, with these being more likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Don't think I've posted the winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast to TWO yet?

If you've not seen it yet here you go guys

#Enjoy

 

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Thank you, Gavin. Looking forward to those winter updates in September. 

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Saturday 4 Jul - Monday 13 Jul

Next weekend looks unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest and most frequent for some western areas. Strong winds look set to accompany these wet conditions, again strongest in the west. Temperatures will vary around average for the time of year though the west will be mainly rather cool. There will, however, still be some drier and sunny interludes. Changeable weather will probably continue in the second week of July although the rain may become more confined to the west and northwest with the best of any drier, brighter weather more likely across the south and east of the UK. Into the following weekend there are signs that the weather may become drier, more settled and warmer again, particularly for southern and many central parts.

Tuesday 14 Jul - Tuesday 28 Jul

It looks as if relatively dry, settled and warm conditions may be established at the start of this period, bringing some sunshine for most parts, particular southern and central areas. The northwest may still be more changeable with nearer normal temperatures. For the rest of July confidence is very low. However, conditions will more likely be rather changeable, bringing spells of rain or showers, mixed with drier and brighter interludes. Later in the period it is possible that there will be some longer, more settled spells allowing it to become warm at times. As is usual this time of year, there is always the chance of some thundery interludes, with these being more likely across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 5 Jul - Tuesday 14 Jul

A general settling trend is expected to take place early in this period, as outbreaks of cloud and rain in the south, and showers in the north, give way to higher pressure from the Atlantic. Whilst scattered showers, or even spells of rain with strong winds, will continue to arrive from the west at times, and could affect the whole country, these are likely to be fewer and further between than of late. Such spells look likely to become increasingly confined to the north-west through the period. Temperatures will remain around average; often rather cool in the north and in more unsettled spells, to rather warm, or even locally warm and humid, in sunnier weather in the south.

Wednesday 15 Jul - Wednesday 29 Jul

Most likely continuing settled overall, but confidence in the longer range forecast is low (typical for this time of year). Plenty of dry, fine weather around, with the most likely scenario seeing rain increasingly moving away from the northwest bringing more prolonged settled weather here too. A greater likelihood than earlier in the month of warm or even hot episodes across the south, especially south-east, with a chance, albeit still low, of thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 6 Jul - Wednesday 15 Jul

A general settling trend is expected to take place early in this period, as outbreaks of cloud and rain in the south, and showers in the north, give way to higher pressure from the Atlantic. Whilst scattered showers, or even spells of rain with strong winds, will continue to arrive from the west at times, and could affect the whole country, these are likely to be fewer and further between than of late. Such spells look likely to become increasingly confined to the north-west through the period. Temperatures will remain around average; often rather cool in the north and in more unsettled spells, to rather warm, or even locally warm and humid, in sunnier weather in the south.

Wednesday 15 Jul - Wednesday 29 Jul

Most likely continuing settled overall, but confidence in the longer range forecast is low (typical for this time of year). Plenty of dry, fine weather around, with the most likely scenario seeing rain increasingly moving away from the northwest bringing more prolonged settled weather here too. A greater likelihood than earlier in the month of warm or even hot episodes across the south, especially south-east, with a chance, albeit still low, of thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, windy and cool in the north at times

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 July – Sunday 5 July

Fresh and windy, with low pressure always nearby

The month will start with a shallow area of low pressure overhead, and several fronts in the vicinity. Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly cloudy and fresh, with patchy light rain across Northern Ireland and Scotland, and showers across many parts of Wales and England. On Thursday night, a front will push in from the Atlantic and into Northern Ireland, bringing brisk winds and rather persistent rain here into Friday morning. Friday will be a wet day for many as the front tracks eastwards into Scotland and gradually into northern England and Wales later in the day. The exception will likely be for southeast England, where the front is unlikely to reach until Friday night, by which point the rain will become increasingly patchy. It will remain fresh and windy over the weekend.

Friday's front will linger over England and Wales on Saturday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and patches of light rain. On Sunday, an another area of low pressure will deepen as it heads in from the Atlantic and towards the northwest of the UK. Strong winds can be expected almost everywhere, but particularly for northern Scotland. There will be rain too, being more persistent and widespread for Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst southeast England may avoid the rain entirely.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

Cool then wet and windy in the north from mid-week

The deep area of low pressure that will affect the UK over the preceding weekend will move away into Scandinavia on Sunday night. This will allow a northerly flow to develop over the UK for the first few days of the week. With cooler air feeding in from the north, it will turn fairly cool for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a scattering of light showers blowing in from the north, too. From mid-week onwards, a few low pressures are expected to track in once more from the Atlantic, bringing some rain and breezy conditions to the UK at times through the remainder of the week.

However, these unsettled periods may be largely confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst southern parts of England and Wales may stay mainly dry. This is because high pressure over western Europe is expected to extend into the south of the UK, forcing fronts in the north to weaken as they nudge in from the northwest. As a result, the wettest and windiest weather is likely to be across northern areas from mid-week through to the weekend, whilst Southeast England should see some dry and calm days.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

A north-south split; then drier and warmer later

A continuation of the previous week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, high pressure should still be holding some influence over the southern half of the UK. This should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for mainly dry and calm conditions across southern England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud impeding the Sun's warmth.

Deeper in July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK by the week of Monday 20th, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the latter part of the month has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods in July 2020 yet, late-July may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 7 Jul - Thursday 16 Jul

A general trend to more settled conditions is likely by the start of this period with the dominance of higher pressure across the UK. Whilst scattered showers, or even spells of rain with strong winds, will continue to affect the west, and perhaps the whole country at times, these are likely to be fewer and further between than of late. Such spells look likely to become increasingly confined to the northwest as we go later into the period. Temperatures will remain around average for the time of year; often rather cool in the north and in more unsettled spells, to rather warm, or even locally warm and humid, in drier, sunnier weather in the south.

Friday 17 Jul - Friday 31 Jul

Most likely continuing settled overall, but confidence in the longer range forecast is low (typical for this time of year). Plenty of dry, fine weather around, with the most likely scenario seeing rain increasingly moving away from the northwest bringing more prolonged settled weather here too. A greater likelihood than earlier in the month of warm or even hot episodes across the south, especially southeast, with a chance, albeit still low, of thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 8 Jul - Friday 17 Jul

Remaining largely settled across most southern and southeastern parts on Wednesday with a good deal of warm sunny spells. Further north, there is an increasing chance of some rain arriving throughout the day, perhaps with strong winds. Looking further ahead, a continuation of the north/south split seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, these possibily spreading to some other areas at times. Further south, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, the possibility of some rain or showers still exists. Temperatures are likely to be below average for most northern areas, though hovering near or locally above in the south.

Saturday 18 Jul - Saturday 1 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average or slightly below, with any periods of particularly warm weather being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through much of July

_________________________________

Saturday 4 July – Sunday 12 July

Unseasonably strong winds, then rather cool

This weekend will feel more autumnal than summer-like, with dull and cloudy skies, and several fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and showers to much of the country. The jet stream will sit right overhead, and the jet will be responsible for the development of a deep area of low pressure, which will approach the north of the UK on Saturday night and track across northern Scotland through Sunday. This will bring unseasonably strong winds to much of the country, particularly across Scotland and northern England. With tree in full-leaf, fallen branches and damaged trees may cause some localised travel and power disruption.

The deep area of low pressure will move away to the northeast into Scandinavia on Monday. This will allow for a northwesterly flow to air to drive across the UK, introducing cooler air for Monday and Tuesday. There will also be showers blowing in from the north on Monday, but Tuesday should be a drier and sunnier day, with just a scattering of showers for the northern half of the UK. From Tuesday night onwards through the rest of week, there is a constant threat of low pressures moving in from the Atlantic. This seems most likely on Wednesday, when fronts will give rain and brisk winds, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

This should move through quickly though, allowing for a day or two of drier, calmer weather, around Thursday. The next low pressure area will threaten from the west later in the week, likely giving another unsettled spell of weather, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland once again. South and southeast England may avoid much of the rain, and it should turn slightly warmer here compared to further north.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

A continuation of the preceding week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. However, interludes of high pressure are expected in between the low pressures, bringing some drier, calmer days too.

High pressure will likely hold greater influence over the southern half of the UK, and this should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for more dry, calm days across England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud and rain often impeding the Sun's warmth.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

The changeable weather expected through early and mid July is forecast to persist into the fourth week of the month. This means there will likely be alternating spells of wet and breezy weather, interspersed with some dry, calm days. With low pressures mainly tracking near the north of the UK, Northern Ireland and Scotland will likely be wetter and windier than southern areas. Towards the end of July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK around the turn of the month, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the late-July into early-August has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods yet, late July or early August may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast into the final month of summer, and take a closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July or early-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office CPF June update

July to September

Temperature summary

For July-August-September as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for July-August-September will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For July-August-September as whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jas-v2.pdf