Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

7 Pages«<4567>
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Col  
#101 Posted : 30 September 2019 18:17:47(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I think 14.3c might have it!  That keeps Col in the lead but with less wiggle room.  

I think the best I can hope for now is to keep my lead, though if I do it will be by the skin of my teeth!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Gavin D  
#102 Posted : 01 October 2019 10:08:05(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
Man
United Kingdom

September confirmed as 14.3c which is 0.6c warmer than 2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Offline Saint Snow  
#103 Posted : 01 October 2019 10:53:54(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,868
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

September confirmed as 14.3c which is 0.6c warmer than 2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

Damn those clear, cold nights 

I feel cheated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline The Professional  
#104 Posted : 01 October 2019 11:01:38(UTC)
The Professional

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 152
United Kingdom
Location: Winchester

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post
An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

Offline Gavin P  
#105 Posted : 01 October 2019 11:20:12(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,214
Man
United Kingdom

First 14s CET finish for September since 2009! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Stormchaser  
#106 Posted : 01 October 2019 11:44:15(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,772
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

Wait, that means... I was spot on, to within 100th of a degree Celsius.

I think that's three, maybe four small errors in a row for me. All the luck I was owed from the 1st half of the year really has come in one big surge .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#107 Posted : 01 October 2019 16:02:38(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post

 

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

I do like your calculations and projections!  They make for an interesting finish.  Keep them coming!   

 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Caz  
#108 Posted : 01 October 2019 16:04:34(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

Wait, that means... I was spot on, to within 100th of a degree Celsius.

I think that's three, maybe four small errors in a row for me. All the luck I was owed from the 1st half of the year really has come in one big surge .

Well done SC!  I think you must have changed your prediction method!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Col  
#109 Posted : 01 October 2019 18:01:43(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: The Professional Go to Quoted Post

 

Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

A bad month for me but not completely disastrous as I still retain my lead, even if only just.

After the run I've had I can't really complain too much!

 

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Col  
#110 Posted : 01 October 2019 18:07:43(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Damn those clear, cold nights 

I feel cheated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tell me about it!

We got the anticyclonic spell but the high was rarely in the right position to give us the S or SE fetch that would have prevented the cold nights. If it had been, I would have been laughing right now!

Still, the CET competition is full of if and buts, and the what might have beens.....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Bertwhistle  
#111 Posted : 01 October 2019 18:10:19(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,769
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

First 14s CET finish for September since 2009! 

Yes, we talked about this Gav! Plenty either side, but oddly none of these.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Bertwhistle  
#112 Posted : 01 October 2019 18:14:08(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,769
Location: Central Southern England

I think I might have retained my position- I have just been pipped by Frank H I reckon, but leapfrogged GW at the same time. Happy with a .19 error. Good show Col!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Whether Idle  
#113 Posted : 01 October 2019 18:54:01(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,237
Man
Location: Dover

Clearly Col's lead has been all but obliterated and the those with an error under 5.0 are in with a better chance of those with an error under 6.0!

So it would appear that the winner will come from the leading pack, but there's an outside chance of one of the "less than 6 but more than 5 degree" boys making it.

For the rest of us also-rans, at least the pressure is off.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Caz  
#114 Posted : 01 October 2019 19:05:58(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

Tell me about it!

We got the anticyclonic spell but the high was rarely in the right position to give us the S or SE fetch that would have prevented the cold nights. If it had been, I would have been laughing right now!

Still, the CET competition is full of if and buts, and the what might have beens.....

Yep!  Chilly nights got me too!  Well done though Col!  Can’t wait to see what you called for October!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Col  
#115 Posted : 01 October 2019 19:18:38(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 943
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Yep!  Chilly nights got me too!  Well done though Col!  Can’t wait to see what you called for October!  

Well it certainly doesn't feel like a victory given the hit I've taken but 1st place is still 1st place. As for October? Well let's just say given your comment on the October thread, we may have gone for something similar....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Stormchaser  
#116 Posted : 02 October 2019 16:58:37(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,772
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Well done SC!  I think you must have changed your prediction method!  

Haha thanks Caz - I've basically eased up on the amount of hardcore science and started using a bit more 'reckoning' .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#117 Posted : 02 October 2019 19:02:23(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

Haha thanks Caz - I've basically eased up on the amount of hardcore science and started using a bit more 'reckoning' .

Seems to be working!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Global Warming  
#118 Posted : 06 October 2019 10:00:40(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,147

Here are the charts for September. Slightly above average month. Looking at the maximums and minimums, the minimum was bang on the 1981-2010 mean whereas the maximum was 0.5C above average.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Table 1

Table 2

Edited by user 06 October 2019 10:07:38(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#119 Posted : 06 October 2019 10:20:24(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,147

Annual CET competition - September update

Here is the table for September. Stormchaser won the September competition with an exact prediction of 14.28C. Congratulations to him.

For the annual running totals we see that Col retains his lead but only just. GezM climbs up to second with marting dropping to third. Gusty is up one to fourth.

Very tight now as we enter the final quarter of the year. Just 0.90C separating the top seven. All to play for.

Full sized table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline GezM  
#120 Posted : 06 October 2019 13:38:40(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 718
Man
United Kingdom

Thanks as ever GW and congratulations to Stormchaser!

I was quite fortunate last month as the first half of the month was cooler than I expected, but then in a couple of previous months a couple of short very hot spells blew my predictions so I think these things tend to balance out overall.

This is probably the closest finish we've had. Anybody in the top 7 is still in with a great chance of winning and even people outside this set cannot be ruled out yet. I expect at least one of the last 3 months will deviate from the average more than others have recently so a brave prediction could thrust somebody to the top of the table. Could this be that month?

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Users browsing this topic
7 Pages«<4567>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP