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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 September 2019 18:17:47


I think 14.3c might have it!  That keeps Col in the lead but with less wiggle room.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I think the best I can hope for now is to keep my lead, though if I do it will be by the skin of my teeth!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Gavin D
01 October 2019 10:08:05

September confirmed as 14.3c which is 0.6c warmer than 2018


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Saint Snow
01 October 2019 10:53:54


September confirmed as 14.3c which is 0.6c warmer than 2018


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


Damn those clear, cold nights 


I feel cheated.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Professional
01 October 2019 11:01:38

An attempt at solving a few simultaneous equations gives me:

Final CET > 14.62 - Col increases his lead with GezM up to 2nd
14.20 < Final CET < 14.63 - Col retains his lead but it decreases, GezM up to 2nd
14.10 < Final CET < 14.21 - Col retains his lead but it decreases to just 0.01c to GezM in 2nd
Final CET = 14.10 - Col and MartinG joint leaders, with GezM 0.01c behind in 3rd
13.87 < Final CET < 14.10 - MartinG takes the lead from Col in 2nd, GezM 0.01c behind Col in 3rd
13.72 < Final CET < 13.88 - MartinG takes the lead from me in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th
Final CET < 13.73 - I take the lead from MartinG in 2nd, Col 3rd, GezM 4th

I can't 100% vouch for the accuracy of the above but I don't think it's far off. In short, come on you chilly nights!

Originally Posted by: The Professional 


Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.

Gavin P
01 October 2019 11:20:12

First 14s CET finish for September since 2009! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Stormchaser
01 October 2019 11:44:15


Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.


Originally Posted by: The Professional 


Wait, that means... I was spot on, to within 100th of a degree Celsius.


I think that's three, maybe four small errors in a row for me. All the luck I was owed from the 1st half of the year really has come in one big surge .


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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 16:02:38


 


Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.


Originally Posted by: The Professional 

I do like your calculations and projections!  They make for an interesting finish.  Keep them coming!   


 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 16:04:34


 


Wait, that means... I was spot on, to within 100th of a degree Celsius.


I think that's three, maybe four small errors in a row for me. All the luck I was owed from the 1st half of the year really has come in one big surge .


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Well done SC!  I think you must have changed your prediction method!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 18:01:43


 


Final, exact answer is 14.28c so, assuming my sums above were correct, Col retains the lead, but with GezM up to 2nd and very close behind.


Originally Posted by: The Professional 


A bad month for me but not completely disastrous as I still retain my lead, even if only just.


After the run I've had I can't really complain too much!


 


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 18:07:43


 


 


Damn those clear, cold nights 


I feel cheated.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Tell me about it!


We got the anticyclonic spell but the high was rarely in the right position to give us the S or SE fetch that would have prevented the cold nights. If it had been, I would have been laughing right now!


Still, the CET competition is full of if and buts, and the what might have beens.....


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Bertwhistle
01 October 2019 18:10:19


First 14s CET finish for September since 2009! 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yes, we talked about this Gav! Plenty either side, but oddly none of these.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
01 October 2019 18:14:08

I think I might have retained my position- I have just been pipped by Frank H I reckon, but leapfrogged GW at the same time. Happy with a .19 error. Good show Col!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Whether Idle
01 October 2019 18:54:01

Clearly Col's lead has been all but obliterated and the those with an error under 5.0 are in with a better chance of those with an error under 6.0!


So it would appear that the winner will come from the leading pack, but there's an outside chance of one of the "less than 6 but more than 5 degree" boys making it.


For the rest of us also-rans, at least the pressure is off.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 19:05:58


 


Tell me about it!


We got the anticyclonic spell but the high was rarely in the right position to give us the S or SE fetch that would have prevented the cold nights. If it had been, I would have been laughing right now!


Still, the CET competition is full of if and buts, and the what might have beens.....


Originally Posted by: Col 

Yep!  Chilly nights got me too!  Well done though Col!  Can’t wait to see what you called for October!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2019 19:18:38


Yep!  Chilly nights got me too!  Well done though Col!  Can’t wait to see what you called for October!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Well it certainly doesn't feel like a victory given the hit I've taken but 1st place is still 1st place. As for October? Well let's just say given your comment on the October thread, we may have gone for something similar....


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Stormchaser
02 October 2019 16:58:37


Well done SC!  I think you must have changed your prediction method!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Haha thanks Caz - I've basically eased up on the amount of hardcore science and started using a bit more 'reckoning' .


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 October 2019 19:02:23


 


Haha thanks Caz - I've basically eased up on the amount of hardcore science and started using a bit more 'reckoning' .


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Seems to be working!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
06 October 2019 10:00:40

Here are the charts for September. Slightly above average month. Looking at the maximums and minimums, the minimum was bang on the 1981-2010 mean whereas the maximum was 0.5C above average.


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Chart 1


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Chart 2


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Chart 3


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Table 1


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Table 2

Global Warming
06 October 2019 10:20:24

Annual CET competition - September update


Here is the table for September. Stormchaser won the September competition with an exact prediction of 14.28C. Congratulations to him.


For the annual running totals we see that Col retains his lead but only just. GezM climbs up to second with marting dropping to third. Gusty is up one to fourth.


Very tight now as we enter the final quarter of the year. Just 0.90C separating the top seven. All to play for.


UserPostedImage


Full sized table

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 October 2019 13:38:40

Thanks as ever GW and congratulations to Stormchaser!


I was quite fortunate last month as the first half of the month was cooler than I expected, but then in a couple of previous months a couple of short very hot spells blew my predictions so I think these things tend to balance out overall.


This is probably the closest finish we've had. Anybody in the top 7 is still in with a great chance of winning and even people outside this set cannot be ruled out yet. I expect at least one of the last 3 months will deviate from the average more than others have recently so a brave prediction could thrust somebody to the top of the table. Could this be that month?



Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
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