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Saint Snow
26 September 2019 15:46:29


Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask.  We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean. 


If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.


 



Martin
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Caz
  • Caz
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26 September 2019 16:06:09


In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.


 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I love your optimism! 


Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  


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Bertwhistle
26 September 2019 16:49:49


 


The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.


 The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.


Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!


The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.


As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 


I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!


This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Col
  • Col
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26 September 2019 18:21:15


I love your optimism! 


Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
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Col
  • Col
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26 September 2019 18:23:10


 


Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!


The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.


As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 


I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!


This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I haven't got any nails left!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
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Whether Idle
26 September 2019 18:25:17


 


I didn't know that?


Originally Posted by: Col 


I think youve been had, Col.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
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26 September 2019 19:43:19


 


I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?


Originally Posted by: Col 

It’s because final readings are taken at 9am GMT, although I think that will actually be on 1st October.  But it’s still an extra minimum to be taken into account.  Yes, the max on 30th September still counts but the min at 9am on 1st September would belong to August.


I’m pretty sure I’ve got this right but GW will be able to confirm or refute this. 


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Caz
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26 September 2019 19:51:56


 


I think youve been had, Col.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

No, honestly.  For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before.  To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  


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lanky
27 September 2019 07:58:12


No, honestly.  For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before.  To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !


I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2


In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
27 September 2019 10:02:17

Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 


Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c


Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  


Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     






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Others just get wet.
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Caz
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27 September 2019 16:52:13


You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !


I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2


In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1


Originally Posted by: lanky 

  That’s how I understand it to be!  It’s GMT too, so at the moment the readings are taken at 10:00 as we’re on BST.  


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Caz
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27 September 2019 16:56:22


Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 


Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c


Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  


Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

  Well done Art!  


That’ll please Saint and Col!  Me too, but my 15c guess is well out of reach now!  


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ARTzeman
28 September 2019 09:37:29

Met Office Hadley           14.6c.       Anomaly        0.8c. Provisional to 27th.


Metcheck                        14.22c.     Anomaly        0.50c


Netweather                     14.8c       Anomaly         1.11c


Peasedwn St John     14.67c.      Anomaly     -0.05c.    






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Others just get wet.
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Bertwhistle
28 September 2019 10:54:09

Can we keep the provisional up to 14.5 month's end? Downjustment then say .3 would give 14.2. Am still happy with that.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Whether Idle
28 September 2019 17:43:19
So a finish between 14.0 and 14.4 looking likely then, depending upon the strength of the downgrade. I will plump for 14.25. 😀
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
29 September 2019 09:35:14

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.        Anomaly        0.9c. Provisional to 28th.


Metcheck                         14.25c       Anomaly         0.25c


Netweather                      14.79c       Anomaly        1.1c


Peasedown St John        14.5c       Anomaly      -0.22c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
30 September 2019 09:33:41

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.


Metcheck                         14.21c        Anomaly        0.49c


Netweather                      14.8c          Anomaly        1.11c


Peasedown St John         14.7c         Anomaly       -0.02c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
The Professional
30 September 2019 09:57:24


Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 


Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!


 


If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.

Bertwhistle
30 September 2019 17:06:44

Looks good to me, for this month at least.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Caz
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30 September 2019 17:53:19


Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!


If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.


Originally Posted by: The Professional 

I think 14.3c might have it!  That keeps Col in the lead but with less wiggle room.  


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