Sadly, I think that’s too big an ask.  We only have four days to go and at this stage of the month it takes a big change in temperature to make much difference to the running mean. 

If only we hadn’t had clear night skies last week, bringing the low minima.  

In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.

In the last 4 days. it's gone up 0.3c. A repeat (yeah, not likely) would help, with only a minimal downjustment.

 

Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  

 

The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.

 The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.

Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C. 

Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!

The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.

As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 

I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!

This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 

I love your optimism! 

Yes, it would be possible but the forecast is for temps to fall slightly and with every passing day, it’s another day to divide the difference by.  Then there’s the fact that on the last day, we only include the minimum reading.  

I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?

 

Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!

The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.

As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C. 

I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!

This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month. 

I haven't got any nails left!

 

I didn't know that?

I think youve been had, Col.

 

I didn't know that, why is that, surely the max temp on Sep 30th belongs in the September CET?

I’m pretty sure I’ve got this right but GW will be able to confirm or refute this. 

 

I think youve been had, Col.

No, honestly.  For once, I was being serious and I’m sure this has been explained before.  To me it makes sense (just) if the daily means are calculated from 9am to 9am.  

You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !

I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2

In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1

Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 

Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c

Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  

Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     

You're right I remember discussing this before and I was trying to remember what it meant !

I think all it means that on any given day the "snapshot" of maximum and minimum temperature is taken at 09:00 on the following day with respect to the previous 24 hours from 09:00 on day 1 to 09:00 on day 2

In a period of (say) rapidly rising temperature during a sudden thaw after a cold spell, the minimum temperature used at 09:00 on day 2 may be from 09:00:01 on day 1

Met Office Hadley        14.6c       Anomaly        0.8c.   Provisional to 26th.  Treble checked. 

Metcheck                     14.28c     Anomaly        0.56c

Netweather                  14.83c     Anomaly        1.14c  

Peasedown St John     14.68c.    Anomaly      -0.4c     

That’ll please Saint and Col!  Me too, but my 15c guess is well out of reach now!  

Met Office Hadley           14.6c.       Anomaly        0.8c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                        14.22c.     Anomaly        0.50c

Netweather                     14.8c       Anomaly         1.11c

Peasedwn St John     14.67c.      Anomaly     -0.05c.    

Can we keep the provisional up to 14.5 month's end? Downjustment then say .3 would give 14.2. Am still happy with that.

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.        Anomaly        0.9c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                         14.25c       Anomaly         0.25c

Netweather                      14.79c       Anomaly        1.1c

Peasedown St John        14.5c       Anomaly      -0.22c.    

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                         14.21c        Anomaly        0.49c

Netweather                      14.8c          Anomaly        1.11c

Peasedown St John         14.7c         Anomaly       -0.02c.     

Met Office Hadley            14.6c.         Anomaly      0.9c.     Provisional to 29th.

Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!

If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.

Looks good to me, for this month at least.

Hadley currently standing at 14.56c, to be exact. With a (provisional) min of 8.0c for the 30th, so a likely 13c or so for the final day, we look likely to end at 14.50c or so for September on the provisional data. From there, it's just a question of any downward adjustment, but fair to say my 13.5c guess for the month isn't looking too clever!

If the final answer is 14.3c or lower then I make up (a little) ground on Col - not even confident of that happening, unfortunately. It's looking better for GezM and MartinG however.