The daily estimated means based on latest output for the rest of the month are 16.6C, 16.7C, 14.7C, 15.4C, 12.9C, 15.1C, 14.4C. 14.1C, 13.9C, 13.9C.
The downward adjustment tends to be quite large when we have cold nights. So I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of as much as 0.4C.
Hence a final CET just under 14C looks most likely at present. Hence I am quite happy with my prediction of 13.8C.
Hadley for this period gives, as expected given likely downjustment, mostly a little above these projections. Accurate stuff GW!
The fly in the ointment was the 16.2 aot 12.9 on 25th. A cloudy night? 3.3 difference gives a potential 0.1 end month difference.
As a consequence,from 21st to 25th the HadCET provisional pre-downjustment is 5.5C above these predictions, an average of 1.1C.
I reckon a 14+ is still on, but we'll need the warm sectors to align with night-time!
This is nail-bitingly good. I won't be among the month leaders but could still end up with a narrow miss for the month.