Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2019 13:55:37

Originally Posted by: Col 


All this talk of over-complicated systems is doin' my head in!
It's a CET prediction competion. Whoever gets closest to the value wins. There shouldn't be layer upon layer of compexity about it. KISS!



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Caz
  • Caz
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26 June 2019 14:34:10

Originally Posted by: Col 


 


Looking good for my prediction of 14.4C but are we expecting a downgrade this month?


Not looking good for my 15.5c guess, but what’s new?  


With regard to month end adjustment, I haven’t a clue!  What’s new?  


But I think we’re due a projection from GW.  He’ll know!   


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ARTzeman
26 June 2019 15:03:04

More like 14.7c with little downgrade.






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Dingle Rob
26 June 2019 15:11:36

Originally Posted by: Col 


All this talk of over-complicated systems is doin' my head in!
It's a CET prediction competion. Whoever gets closest to the value wins. There shouldn't be layer upon layer of compexity about it. KISS!



Tend to agree. Just need a couple of wildly fluctuating months to get unpredictability and uncertainty back on track.


R

GezM
  • GezM
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26 June 2019 15:13:30

Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob 


 


Tend to agree. Just need a couple of wildly fluctuating months to get unpredictability and uncertainty back on track.


R



 


Me too. I can see the reasoning behind the suggested changes but there are also years where we have many months with significant anomalies. For these years, you could argue that the new proposed system is biased towards people who take random extreme guesses. I think we should keep it simple.


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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2019 15:27:31

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Me too. I can see the reasoning behind the suggested changes but there are also years where we have many months with significant anomalies. For these years, you could argue that the new proposed system is biased towards people who take random extreme guesses. I think we should keep it simple.


Ahh, now that was my first thought but it wouldn’t favour wild guesses if bonuses were awarded incrementally.  Although on the other hand, I suppose anyone taking an extreme guess is also taking an extreme risk of being wildly wrong. 


I’m happy with what we’ve got now but I’d also be happy with any changes GW proposes.  It’s worth everyone expressing their thoughts about this.  More heads are better and we all have a stake in the game!  


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Dingle Rob
26 June 2019 17:46:56

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Ahh, now that was my first thought but it wouldn’t favour wild guesses if bonuses were awarded incrementally.  Although on the other hand, I suppose anyone taking an extreme guess is also taking an extreme risk of being wildly wrong. 


I’m happy with what we’ve got now but I’d also be happy with any changes GW proposes.  It’s worth everyone expressing their thoughts about this.  More heads are better and we all have a stake in the game!  



 


Could always run a Beta test of a new format over the last 4 months of the year, in parallel to the main comp, and see what people think.


R

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2019 17:57:31

Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob 


 


Could always run a Beta test of a new format over the last 4 months of the year, in parallel to the main comp, and see what people think.


R


  Good idea.  I hadn’t thought of that but somehow, I think GW might already have.  


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Stormchaser
26 June 2019 20:49:54

If the bonus for correctly estimating a month that's 2*C from the LTA is a 0.3*C reduction, then one wrong call could easily cost you a great deal more than that bonus.


I think that's the key here for something that works well; small, yet still appreciable bonuses.



I'd be astounded if there was anyone who could reliably anticipate extremely anomalous months and so 'abuse' this system.


Just my two cents


 


. . . . . . .


As for the current CET situation - seems like there's a 3, maybe even 4*C range in the possible CET returns, depending on whether it's sunny as expected and if so, how much the flow off the North Sea is modified by surface heating.


For this reason I've not bothered doing any rough CET estimates; it'll be what it'll be. Not feeling very positive about the likely final CET though. I imagine that even if Friday was widely mid-high 20s and Sunday high 20s to low 30s, that'd still not be enough to get the CET to the 15.0*C mark (which incidentally would be just over halfway along the range of estimations for this month; midpoint is 14.9*C).



I can't help but feel horribly cheated by this unusually strong ridge formation. From researching, it looks like I can blame the exceptionally high Arctic Heights for that - something that I'd expected to be toned down a bit by now but no, it's raging on! Astounding, really.


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ARTzeman
27 June 2019 11:37:56

Met Office Hadley          13.9c       Anomaly      -0.1c  Provisional to 26th.


Metcheck                       14.0c       Anomaly      -0.15c


Netweather                    14.44c     Anomaly       0.35c


Mean of my 10 stations   14.41c   Difference      -0.92c. 






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Others just get wet.
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Global Warming
27 June 2019 17:24:55

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Not looking good for my 15.5c guess, but what’s new?  


With regard to month end adjustment, I haven’t a clue!  What’s new?  


But I think we’re due a projection from GW.  He’ll know!   



CET tracker trending lower and lower every day. Today is actually going to be slightly below average would you believe.


Saturday will be very hot but one day does not a month make.


So at present my CET estimate for the whole of June is just 14.15C. As of the 26th it was standing at 13.58C.

Global Warming
27 June 2019 17:28:08

Please note I am about to go away on holiday so there will be a long delay in publishing the June data and competition results.


I will post the July CET thread later this evening.

Jerry P
27 June 2019 18:10:40
It's been pointed out in the MO thread that July could be autumnal or major heatwave and I would agree at this point. I think it's more likely we'll get a wide range of estimates for July so If GW doesn't have time/inclination to put a bonus system in place this month then perhaps it can wait 😀
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2019 19:14:35

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


CET tracker trending lower and lower every day. Today is actually going to be slightly below average would you believe.


Saturday will be very hot but one day does not a month make.


So at present my CET estimate for the whole of June is just 14.15C. As of the 26th it was standing at 13.58C.


Thanks GW!  Not good for my guess but hey-ho!  


Have a lovely holiday. We can wait for results!  


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Caz
  • Caz
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27 June 2019 19:16:57

Originally Posted by: Jerry P 

It's been pointed out in the MO thread that July could be autumnal or major heatwave and I would agree at this point. I think it's more likely we'll get a wide range of estimates for July so If GW doesn't have time/inclination to put a bonus system in place this month then perhaps it can wait 😀

 It’ll be a wild guess from me as usual!  


I think GW was considering making the changes for next year!  


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Stormchaser
28 June 2019 09:46:54

Just 14.15*C during an El Nino June with a +QBO and predominantly warmer than average SSTs around much of the UK .


I struggle to find much historical precedent for that.


So I think that settles it; either you get lucky or you don't. Simple as that!


 


In light of which, I find myself thinking that I've had so much poor luck lately that surely the tide must turn soon?


That feels like the logic of a gambling addict, except this is much less serious because there's nothing real at at stake.


 


Now, what on Earth to put down for July...! 


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ARTzeman
28 June 2019 09:54:21

Met Office Hadley         14.1c      Anomaly      -0.0c  Provisional to 27th.


Metcheck                      14.03c    Anomaly      -0.12c


Netweather                   14.57c    Anomaly      0.42c.


mean of my 10 stations 14.55c. Difference -0.78c.     






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Others just get wet.
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ARTzeman
29 June 2019 09:58:36

Met Office Hadley    14.2c.    Anomaly    0.1c. Provisional to 28th.


Metcheck                 14.15c   Anomaly   -0.00c


Netweather              14.6c     Anomaly   0.51c


Mean of my 10 stations 14.76c  Difference  -0.57c.           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
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Gusty
29 June 2019 10:17:35

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley    14.2c.    Anomaly    0.1c. Provisional to 28th.


Metcheck                 14.15c   Anomaly   -0.00c


Netweather              14.6c     Anomaly   0.51c


Mean of my 10 stations 14.76c  Difference  -0.57c.           



Any chance of a CET rise of 1c today to rescue my campaign ? .


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ARTzeman
29 June 2019 10:21:55

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


Any chance of a CET rise of 1c today to rescue my campaign ? .


Hopeful of 15.2 but adjustments will be a downfall.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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