Thanks for all of the kind compliments, it's always uplifting to see my thoughts and analysis received so positively .
Some, well, interesting model runs have been rolling out since I made that last post. Especially the past couple of sets! However... here's some sobering facts:
Even with things falling into place for such a big draw of heat as the 00z ECM shows, the CET recovery only makes it as far as the LTA as of 28th.
The less optimal GFS (surface flow stays off the North Sea until right before the breakdown, keeping a lid on temps) only just makes it into the 14s as of that date.
On the other hand, that'd be one heck of a recovery after such an unseasonably cool majority of the month.
Rarely do these lows developing west of Iberia behave themselves, though. It's not going to take much of an adjustment east to keep the heat intrusion relatively small, or north to break things down more quickly.
Then again, we did very well in late Feb (and then some!), and the FV3 06z, rolling out as I type this, is looking better-aligned for the heat draw than the 00z did, as of Monday 22nd.
By Friday, we should have a pretty good idea which way this is going to go. It's going to be a tense modelling ride!