We did smash the record for the highest maximum CET in February (records going back to 1878).

Max CET for February 2019 was 11.3C

Previous highest was 10.7C in 1998.

There have only been 4 years before this year where the February max CET was above 10C. All bar one of these have occurred since 1990.

 

If we look at the highest maximum CET records by month, 9 of the 12 monthly records as well as the annual record have all been set since 1992. 

This is a good read, as the experts start to grapple with the implications of what we have just experienced.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/02/uk-temperature-jump-february-incredible-climate-weather-carbon

 

This is a good read, as the experts start to grapple with the implications of what we have just experienced.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/02/uk-temperature-jump-february-incredible-climate-weather-carbon

 

Indeed! but the proof of the pudding will be seeing a similar couple of warm surges repeat over the next 5 years or so?

If we see that ( or worse??) then we should be really worried!

Final February CET was 6.74C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

February’s winner was of course marting as everyone went too low.

Impressive, but wasn't Feb 1998 as mild or even milder?

 

Impressive, but wasn't Feb 1998 as mild or even milder?

1998 was 7.3C and 2002 was 7.0C so it wasn't even the warmest February this century. However we had a cold start; I can imagine the last half of February could have been record breaking for the mean temperature.

As previously mentioned it was the warmest ever average maximum by some distance.

Now what was going on in the world in 98'?

Oh Yes!! A bloomin' Super Nino was having a go at superheating the planet......this Feb has been the warm side of 'Nada' across the regions

When I look at the heat the south of the planet has just had to endure over their summer I worry that we are just about to accept that batton as the sun crosses back into our side of the planet.

I just hope the dynamic of 'twice as warm as the average for this time of year' does not see continued respect from temps as we move into spring and summer!

 

1998 was 7.3C and 2002 was 7.0C so it wasn't even the warmest February this century. However we had a cold start; I can imagine the last half of February could have been record breaking for the mean temperature.

As previously mentioned it was the warmest ever average maximum by some distance.

If we take the period from 6-28 February, 2019 was the third warmest on record:

1779 8.30C
1998 8.27C
2019 7.83C

If we take the second half of February (15-28th) then 2019 was by some margin the warmest on record.

Interestingly, apart from this year and 1998 all of the warm second half of February's were a long time ago (about 100 years ago or more).

Highest mean CET for 15-28 Feb
2019 8.81C
1926 8.39C
1846 8.34C
1779 7.99C
1878 7.94C
1912 7.92C
1998 7.90C

Here are the charts for February. Quite a wacky month. Very cold start but very mild later in the month with one daily record CET.

Overall we finished at 6.74C with a record maximum CET

Winter as a whole was very mild although nothing exceptional based on recent times

Annual CET competition - February update

So all change in the table this month. The winner of the February competition marting is up 45 places to the top of the table. Whereas Ally Pally Snowman is down 46 places to the bottom of the table. Long way to go of course yet. But it just goes to show that the really important months are usually those where there is a significant deviation from the long run CET mean. If you get caught out by that it can be costly. On the other hand if you spot it then you can make very big gains.

Link to full size table

Annual CET competition - February update

So all change in the table this month. The winner of the February competition marting is up 45 places to the top of the table. Whereas Ally Pally Snowman is down 46 places to the bottom of the table. Long way to go of course yet. But it just goes to show that the really important months are usually those where there is a significant deviation from the long run CET mean. If you get caught out by that it can be costly. On the other hand if you spot it then you can make very big gains.

Link to full size table

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Amazing what this Feb did: Ally Pally was right at the head at the end of Jan; to be #50 after that is so unlikely.

Never mind, Snowman! Bet you're back up the leader board after this highly unpredictable March!

Annual CET competition - February update

So all change in the table this month. The winner of the February competition marting is up 45 places to the top of the table. Whereas Ally Pally Snowman is down 46 places to the bottom of the table. Long way to go of course yet. But it just goes to show that the really important months are usually those where there is a significant deviation from the long run CET mean. If you get caught out by that it can be costly. On the other hand if you spot it then you can make very big gains.

Link to full size table

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Ouch!

 

Amazing what this Feb did: Ally Pally was right at the head at the end of Jan; to be #50 after that is so unlikely.

Never mind, Snowman! Bet you're back up the leader board after this highly unpredictable March!

Must be a record fall down the leaderboard.  I'm going to have to gamble from now on to have any chance.  I've gone very mild for March which already looks doomed.

Annual CET competition - February update

So all change in the table this month. The winner of the February competition marting is up 45 places to the top of the table. Whereas Ally Pally Snowman is down 46 places to the bottom of the table. Long way to go of course yet. But it just goes to show that the really important months are usually those where there is a significant deviation from the long run CET mean. If you get caught out by that it can be costly. On the other hand if you spot it then you can make very big gains.

Link to full size table

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Ohh big fall for me as well, 2nd from the bottom! I think the lowest I have ever been...

Thank you GW. Key to this competition is to make a strong start by avoiding the potentially big errors that Jan and Feb can present 

I got caught out badly - Went too high for January then went far too low for February.

Thank you GW. Key to this competition is to make a strong start by avoiding the potentially big errors that Jan and Feb can present 

 

I think most would be aware that the difference between the highest and lowest CET for each month is highest in winter and lowest in summer but I thought it would be interesting to post them all the same.

Jan 10.6C

Feb 9.8C

Mar 8.2C

Apr 7.1C

May 6.6C

Jun 6.7C

Jul 6.3C

Aug 6.3C

Sep 6.3C

Oct 8.0C

Nov 7.8C

Dec 10.5C

December is only up there challenging January due to the unprecendented freakishly mild December of 2015.

Thanks GW

 I think most would be aware that the difference between the highest and lowest CET for each month is highest in winter and lowest in summer but I thought it would be interesting to post them all the same.

Jan 10.6C

Feb 9.8C

Mar 8.2C

Apr 7.1C

May 6.6C

Jun 6.7C

Jul 6.3C

Aug 6.3C

Sep 6.3C

Oct 8.0C

Nov 7.8C

Dec 10.5C

December is only up there challenging January due to the unprecendented freakishly mild December of 2015.

Interesting Col. There is room there for the November range to be stretched. In this day and age its more likely this will come from a record high one, rather than a record low one. 

Thank you GW. Key to this competition is to make a strong start by avoiding the potentially big errors that Jan and Feb can present 

 

Indeed. 

Clearly the magic has deserted me this year. My current error is 3.09, compare that with 2018 when my total error to July was only 2.38! August took me just over that, by which time my error was 3.14.

My main hope to get anywhere this year is some good estimates when others flounder.

I'm celebrating being in the top 10 for the first time in ages. I've been the epitome of 'mid-table mediocrity' for a while