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Woah! This is a really strong PV in FI to start 2019 wow!
A moment of chocolate box indulgence with P3; then back to reality.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/3_360_850tmp.png?cb=401
Op and Control are both riding high in a predominantly mild pack, but they are close together a long way out, interestingly, and the persistent and often slack European high is mirrored in ECM to 240.
Op gives double digit temps most days forever.
Not too bad from ECM over the next 10 days boxing day possibly the mildest day of the period
UKMO extended keeps the UK in a fairly mild set-up with some rain in the west
From a local perspective, this morning's charts show the worst possible outcome over the next 10 days. High pressure close enough to keep any interesting weather that might come this way off the Atlantic well away, but not close enough to bring any frost or fog, and positioned in such a way to ensure a continuous stream of low cloud, high humidity, spits of rain and zero drying and temps as high during the night as during the day.
Not much cheer in the GFS ensembles https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london
The mild outlook some of us have been prepared to analyse within the 10 day period, continues, and strengthens in confidence this morning. We are probably looking at the second mildest December in the past thirty years (since 1988).
That comes as a surprise. Apart from the last few days it really hasn’t felt very mild this month, and we’ve had quite a few sharp frosts.
Only 3 frosts here this month but daytime temperatures haven't been especially mild. In fact, only 3 days have been in double digits. Even a normal December probably exceeds that.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_225_1.pngJust need a bit of luck from here
Again I think it's pointless hoping for anything much this side of mid-January, with the vortex being pushed across and fairly unanimously set to take up residence over our side of the pole. It's what happens after that that might (or might not) be interesting. (See GW's post in the SSW thread)
I think it would benefit everybody to take a week or so's break from the models over Christmas and have another look before New Year, by which time FI might start to look a bit better! Looking between now and then will only depress cold-hunters!
Again I think it's pointless hoping for anything much this side of mid-January, with the vortex being pushed across and fairly unanimously set to take up residence over our side of the pole. It's what happens after that that might (or might not) be interesting. (See GW's post in the SSW thread) I think it would benefit everybody to take a week or so's break from the models over Christmas and have another look before New Year, by which time FI might start to look a bit better! Looking between now and then will only depress cold-hunters!
Not convinced nothing wont crop before then, we are close to getting something interesting in my mind and yesterday’s GFS run shows how it can happen. Will keep an eye on the models over the next week even if they look mild!!
Closing at 11:52am.