I agree. I can vaguely remember back as far as the late 1950s, with rather clearer recall from the 1960s on, and a prolonged spell of serious cold and snow earlier than Christmas in my part of southern England has always been very much the exception rather than the rule. There's been the Decembers of 1981, 2009 and 2010, but not a lot else. Even the winter of 1962-3 only really started around the 22nd of December. That of 1978-9 didn't properly start until the 29th. And 1946-7 didn't really start until about the 20th January.

Agreed here too.... as someone with a birthday in December I can only ever recall 2 snowy ones - 1981 and 2010. Most have been wet and mild and a few frosty. There has certainly been no discernible trend from cold. 

Maybe the original post refers to Decembers of Dickensian times - however I’m not that old 😉...

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I was chatting with the missus the other day and remembered New Year's Eve day in what we think was 1996. Pre-kids days, we were out sales shopping in Warrington and it snowed. Afterwards we headed into rural cheshire and it was beautiful; stopped at a pub with roaring fire for a pint before heading home.

Anyone else remember this event? I think it was pretty short-lived in terms of snow on the ground.

Saint, I love that many of your snowy memories involve a pub and a roaring open fire.    

We have only just recently experienced a Dickensian Christmas on a scale that Dickens himself never experienced or could have imagined. (The December 2010 CET was minus 0.7 C, and only December 1890 is lower, at minus 0.8 C; Dickens was long dead by then - and there's no colder December going back to 1659).

It baffles me that some people simply don't appreciate how fortunate they have been to be alive at a time when they experienced the Holy Grail of winter in England, and that it happened so recently.

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We have only just recently experienced a Dickensian Christmas on a scale that Dickens himself never experienced or could have imagined. (The December 2010 CET was minus 0.7 C, and only December 1890 is lower, at minus 0.8 C; Dickens was long dead by then - and there's no colder December going back to 1659).

It baffles me that some people simply don't appreciate how fortunate they have been to be alive at a time when they experienced the Holy Grail of winter in England, and that it happened so recently.

December 2010 was a staggering month...and actually I believe in relative terms it will in fact be the coldest ever (considering the urbanisation that has gone on since 1890). 

However I believe that the proceeding January and February let that winter down and I think it's probably this that weighs on people's minds when thinking back. Had Jan and Feb both come out decently below average, I think the vast majority of people would see that winter in a different fashion.

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Whilst accepting the heart of winter comes in Jan and Feb, I don't like to see a mild Nov and Dec relative to the norm. 

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Saint, I love that many of your snowy memories involve a pub and a roaring open fire.    

1995 into 1996 was very cold up this way. There was snow, but not masses of it. I just remember day after day of cold frostiness. I think Altnaharra equalled the cold temperature record that year. 

That was off the back of a great summer too. Let’s hope it repeats!

Whilst accepting the heart of winter comes in Jan and Feb, I don't like to see a mild Nov and Dec relative to the norm. 

If anything as well, it is actually worse this year because during the last couple of years, we were at least getting a fairly cold November and whilst that hasn't delivered any snow in this part of the world, we were at least getting some decent frosts which to me, is still better than nothing at all, and certainly better than this absolute joke of an easterly which we got this time around, which delivered absolutely nothing in the way of cold weather in this part of the world and very few frosts to speak of.

To make matters worse as well, this month looks set to be the only autumn month during this year to end up with significantly warmer than average CET and even my own local temperature anomalies across my own three local stations here in Edinburgh are showing a similarly warmer than average temperature anomaly. In fact, it is because of what is happening during this month that this autumn as a whole looks set to go down as being warmer than average overall and with a milder than average December looking likely, that to me is not a very good omen going into the start of the actual meteorological winter.

 

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December 2010 was a staggering month...and actually I believe in relative terms it will in fact be the coldest ever (considering the urbanisation that has gone on since 1890). 

However I believe that the proceeding January and February let that winter down and I think it's probably this that weighs on people's minds when thinking back. Had Jan and Feb both come out decently below average, I think the vast majority of people would see that winter in a different fashion.

I completely agree with that, although I realize that the CET record is supposed to have been adjusted for urbanization. It's just that if you live rurally, as I do, and walk or cycle in winter on a country lane and turn onto a main road, even if the road is lined with just a few houses or other buildings, the difference in temperature is staggering. The annual average urban-heat adjustments made to the CET record for each overall 12-month period may well be sufficient. But not for the individual winter months alone.

As it is, the proper nationwide records, i.e. the Met Office ones, go back to 1910, and not only did 2010 boast the lowest mean December temperature, at minus 1.0 C, it utterly smashed the previous record of plus 0.1 C, which was Dec. 1981. Just think of that: the coldest December since proper records began, and by a margin of over a whole degree celcius! And a lot of us are old enough to have enjoyed the previous record too.

How lucky we cold-winter fans are to be alive at a time such as this.

(PS I assume you mean the subsequent January and February to Dec 2010 being a let-down, rather than the preceding ones.)

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Whilst accepting the heart of winter comes in Jan and Feb, I don't like to see a mild Nov and Dec relative to the norm. 

I don't see a mild November as necessarily being a bad thing. For example Nov 1978 had a mean CET of 8.5, Nov 1984 had 8.0, Nov 2009 had 8.7.

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(PS I assume you mean the subsequent January and February to Dec 2010 being a let-down, rather than the preceding ones.)

Yes, that's why I said proceeding rather than preceding 

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December 2010 was a staggering month...and actually I believe in relative terms it will in fact be the coldest ever (considering the urbanisation that has gone on since 1890). 

However I believe that the proceeding January and February let that winter down and I think it's probably this that weighs on people's minds when thinking back. Had Jan and Feb both come out decently below average, I think the vast majority of people would see that winter in a different fashion.

Totally agree it went out on a whimper 

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I do not post very often in this forum but feel I need to respond to this.  Even if this coming December turns out to be mild, it is not the scourge of the 'modern era'.  December has, through the last 40 years and probably longer, been mild (apart from a few exceptions) and our winter months tend to be January & February and  the first half of March.  It is no coincidence that the astronomical winter starts on Dec 21st.  I would love December to be cold especially over the festive period but December is more of an autumnal month than a winter month, and does not influence what patterns we get in the actual winter months.

For what it's worth, the signs are promising for some winter cold & snow...but then we say that most years, don't we??

David, Northallerton

 

I also agree. I remember growing up in the 70's & 80's and always hoping for a White Xmas. The Dec 81 event was a totally unexpected treat, and it increased the hope levels, but no other Xmas's were anywhere near snowy in my childhood - I have a memory from being probably 12/13 and everywhere was very white on Xmas morning - with a heavy hoar frost, but that was as close as it got. I'm counting snow lying on the ground as a white Xmas, by the way. 

Since I've grown up (and that's questionable), though, we've had more frequent White Xmas's. There was one around 96 where an overnight powdery snowfall left a covering before the skies cleared and it froze; we awoke to stunning blue skies and pristine white mantle.

There was 2004, with heavy graupel and snow showers on a cold NW'ly, which put down a couple of inches during Xmas Day itself. 2009 we had snow topped up with more snow in the couple of weeks before Xmas, which froze and stayed in place until 27th Dec (although the thaw commenced late Boxing Day with drizzle), In 2010, we only got snow late in the period (Fri 17th), but the snow was deep and we had hardly any melt until after Xmas.

We also had snow over the festive period between Xmas and NY in 2000 and 2001, then a good fall of snow on Boxing Day a couple of years ago (?).

So since 1996, we had either snow fall and settle on Xmas Day, be lying on Xmas Day, or fall and settle during the festive period 7 times in 21 Xmas's.

That's a huge improvement on the 21 years preceding 1996.

 

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Saint, I love that many of your snowy memories involve a pub and a roaring open fire.    

 

Now you mention it...

I might be an idealising, sentimental duffer, but I think nothing beats wandering out of the cold and snow into a warm pub that's got an open fire and thawing out with a pint.

 

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For me, a proper White Christmas has to have a snow cover on the ground, regardless of the definition that the bookies choose to use. After all, you don't see Christmas cards with snow falling but a predominantly green and brown landscape. On that basis, from the 1960s onwards the only White Christmases we've had here in my part of Surrey were 1970, 1981, 2009 (just about, though by Christmas Day the cover was somewhat patchy) and 2010.

The best of those, and the only one of the four with snow falling on the day itself, was 1970. An easterly had set in a few days before Christmas, and on the day itself we had about 5 cm fall around dawn. There was another substantial fall first thing on Boxing Day, another during the evening of that day, and still another first thing on the 27th. There had been no sign of any melting, and by that stage the snow must have been about 15 cm deep. Then a heavy snowfall was forecast for the following Sunday (I think it was), but to my great disappointment apart from a hint of sleetiness at the start we had only rain. 

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 Then a heavy snowfall was forecast for the following Sunday (I think it was), but to my great disappointment apart from a hint of sleetiness at the start we had only rain. 

 

That was my experience of NYE 2000/01. With around 15cm of snow lying after the heavy fall on the 29th and very cold temps, a front was forecast to move in from the west late evening of NYE bringing 2-3 hours of heavy snow before turning to rain. I was envisioning another 15-20cm by midnight.

We were staying in anyway, and I won't pretend I didn't have an evil smirk at the thought of revellers getting stuck in snowmageddon.

But the reality was that we had about 20 minutes of snow from around 10pm before it turned to sleet, then soon after to rain. By midnight, only a few snow piles and part-melted snowmen remained. I was gutted.

 

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We have only just recently experienced a Dickensian Christmas on a scale that Dickens himself never experienced or could have imagined. (The December 2010 CET was minus 0.7 C, and only December 1890 is lower, at minus 0.8 C; Dickens was long dead by then - and there's no colder December going back to 1659).

It baffles me that some people simply don't appreciate how fortunate they have been to be alive at a time when they experienced the Holy Grail of winter in England, and that it happened so recently.

I kind of feel the same way about the snowfall last February/March. I'm 46 and it was probably the heaviest snowfall of my lifetime(I say probably as January '82 might have rivalled it but at this remove, I can't be sure). We ended up with over a foot of level snow and had 36 hours of continuous falling snow(which followed a couple of days of fairly frequent showers). I seriously doubt that I will ever experience that again. Many winters here are snowless so while any snowfall is welcome, I do wonder how much 2 inches of snow lying for 48 hours will cut it for me in the future after what I experienced last year(which would have had me perfectly happy in the past). Add to that, we had three other snowfalls last winter(i.e. snow lying) in addition to the March/February one. Basically, I fear that I'm never going to get as good as last winter again! 

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The netweather winter forecast is now online

 

"

Forecast Overview

Temperatures

Temperatures for the winter of 2018/19 are most likely to be very close to the 1981-2010 average over much of the UK, but in Scotland, there is about 50% chance of the winter ending up warmer than average but not exceptionally so.

Although December is likely to have a cold spell around midmonth the month as a whole will probably be warmer than average across the UK, most likely with a positive anomaly close to 1C.

There is also about 30% chance of January being a milder than average month (note the 2005 and 2007 analogues), but the most likely scenario for January sees above-average temperatures in Scotland, particularly the north of Scotland, but near or slightly below average temperatures over much of England and Wales and Northern Ireland.

For February, temperatures are about 70% likely to be below average (the percentage likelihood would be higher than that if it wasn't the last month in the forecast period and thus traditionally the most prone to uncertainty as new atmospheric signals develop nearer the time).

Rainfall

Rainfall for the winter of 2018/19 looks set to be below average in north-west Scotland and near or slightly above normal in most other regions, with the east of England most likely to see above average rainfall.

December is most likely to be wetter than normal across the UK, but not exceptionally so, due to a drier spell midmonth. For January the signals are more mixed but with the majority suggesting that January will be drier than average in most parts of the country. For February, the probabilities favour a much drier than average month especially for the north-west of Scotland, but with eastern and southern Britain more likely to have near or above average rainfall"

 

Full forecast: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal 

For a bit of fun I’ve had a go at this for the last few years in homage to Brian’s winter forecast.

Of course with a totally amateur forecast, like a stopped clock, it still occasionally can be accurate. But here goes...

What surprises me this year is the lack of discussion surrounding the change in the AMO. Last year I did a quick and dirty analysis of previous years’ unsmoothed data and was surprised to find that previous notably cold winters occurred when there was a switch to a negative index in the preceding summer. Therefore I made the easy call of saying no prolonged big freeze last year.

However this summer I believe there has been a switch to a negative AMO - so it’s time to give the theory a test! So the Stolen Snowman winter 2018/19 forecast (for the UK Midlands) is as follows;

December - slightly above average.

The month will start mild and wet with an Atlantic influence. It will turn more settled and frosty before stormy weather returns mid month. 

It will slowly become more settled and by the Christmas period a change to colder conditions will start as high pressure builds over Scandinavia. A significant snow event is likely between Christmas and New Year.

January - below average

The month will start on a cold note with frosty and settled conditions. During the first week there will be a change to milder conditions before high pressure builds again to the north of the UK. 

During mid to late month winds will have a more easterly contingent dragging down temperatures. In the second half of the month as the high retrogresses into the Atlantic another bout of  heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures will establish.

February - below average.

The month starts on a very cold note as snow and frosty periods affect the country. A settled spell then develops giving rise to some very severe frosts and very cold overnight temperatures under clear skies.

By the second third of the month there will be indications of a warm up as the Atlantic briefly starts to exert an influence, leading to a gradual thaw. However this will be short lived as towards the end of the month temperatures will be trending cold again.

Worth a punt and all for fun! Let’s see how it pans out. 

 

 

 

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TWO winter forecast

Winter: Colder than average.
Forecast Issued 01/12/2018

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a colder than average winter with a risk of snow in all regions. In large part it is due to an increased risk of high pressure areas blocking off the Atlantic flow. However, it means there is huge amount of uncertainty and a very mild winter is considered a more likely outcome than an average one. In other words, it may be a case of all or nothing this year.

Temperature

Below the 30 year average taken over the three month period as a whole.

Precipitation

Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly below average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast