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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 November 2017 22:27:35(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

DECEMBER 2017 and WINTER 2017/18 CET THREAD

So once again we reach the final month of the year. As usual please can you PM your December CET prediction to me directly rather than posting it in this thread.

Also if you would like to make a prediction for the winter 2017/18 CET please also include that in your PM. I will post a separate table with the winter CET predictions at the end of the first week of December.

All predictions to be made by 23:59 on Saturday 2 December please.

Check out the contingency planners forecast below. Very interesting.

I finish my current job on 8 December and then have 3 weeks holiday until I start my new job on 2 January. So will hopefully be able to post a bit more from next week onwards and get my CET tracker updated throughout the month which I have not had time to do for a while.

Historic summary for December

1971-2000 5.1C

1981-2010 4.6C

1997-2016 5.1C

We have not had a cold December since 2010. three of the last 5 Decembers have been very mild including the record breaking 2015. The other two were average. Prior to that 2008, 2009 and 2010 were all cold.

Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961:

Current model output

850's showing huge scatter. Massive uncertainty beyond this weekend. Anything is possible.

GFS - huge scatter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM - interestingly much less scatter here. Higher confidence of much warmer weather by Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM - some scatter but generally not looking very cold. Two clear clusters though. One chilly and one quite a bit milder

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Multi op - shows a clear warming signal for next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

So this is really interesting. Basically the Met Office is indicating a front loaded winter. December looking like it could be a bit cooler than normal although nothing exceptional. Whereas the winter as a whole is expected to be mild, suggesting potentially very mild conditions during much of January and February if December does end up cool. We shall see.

Just for reference, precipitation is expected to be average in December but well above for the winter as a whole.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v1.pdf

This does tie in with what the Met Office GLOSEA model has been suggesting (a mild unsettled winter overall).

Pattern Matching - JFF

If we look at years where the CET for Sept - Nov is very similar to 2017 the first good match going backwards is 1968. This saw quite a cold December (the whole of the 60's generally saw cold Decembers). January was very mild but then February and March were very cold 

1977 is also a reasonable match. This saw a very mild December, a cool January and fairly cold February.

Not many other similar years. You have to go way back to 1811. That saw a cold December and January. A mild February and very cold March.

So not much to go on. Looking a bit closer 1995 is a reasonable match. Cold December, February and March. Average January.

1990 is also a reasonable match. All the winter months were colder than average.

If you looked at Terry Scholey's forecast he is suggesting a volatile winter with some very cold and very warm weather. The years above do have an element of this with some very mild months mixed in. But generally there are a lot of cold months in there.

Personally I do not buy the output from the GLOSEA model. The current synoptics already look different to recent years. Of course we could end up with a Euro high and a mild winter but I think there will be plenty of cold outbreaks this year and at least one month that is very cold. 

Latest CET tracker prediction for December

A little above average by the 12th based on current output

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 04 January 2018 15:59:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 29 November 2017 10:11:44(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Job Done. Thank you GW.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Bertwhistle  
#3 Posted : 29 November 2017 17:38:38(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,103
Location: Central Southern England

Thanks GW; I always, in a sort of ego-paranoia, imagine the models wait till I post my prediction- then flip dramatically. Still- here goes:

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Online Caz  
#4 Posted : 29 November 2017 20:15:05(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,200
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Done it!  Many thanks GW. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Bolty  
#5 Posted : 29 November 2017 20:22:03(UTC)
Bolty

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Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,598
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

PM sent, cheers as always GW.

Offline ARTzeman  
#6 Posted : 02 December 2017 11:14:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      3.0c.       Anomaly     -1.8c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                   2.87c.      Anomaly       -2.12c.

Netweather                3.31c.      Anomaly       -1.8c.

Peasedown St John    2.2c.       Anomaly        -4.2c. Compared to 2016  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#7 Posted : 03 December 2017 11:28:14(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Here are the latest prediction charts for December. After a cold start we something milder today then average for a couple of days. Midweek looks very mild for a time but by Friday it turns cold again and then stays cold. Nothing exceptional though in the way of cold but a couple of degrees below average. So by the middle of the month that all shakes out to give something around 0.5C below average.

That's it for today. I will try and post up the list of December predictions on Monday evening.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#8 Posted : 03 December 2017 13:17:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office  Hadley         4.1c.         Anomaly       -0.9c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                       4.37c.       Anomaly        -  0.62c.

Netweather                    4.06c.       Anomaly        -1.04c.

Peasedown St John       3.8c.        Anomaly         -2.6c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 04 December 2017 12:43:06(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             5.1c.         Anomaly       0.1c.  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                          4.96c.       Anomaly       -0.03c.

Netweather                       5.22c.       Anomaly        0.3c.

Peasedown St John          5.1c.         Anomaly       -1.3c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#10 Posted : 04 December 2017 22:27:19(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Here is the list of the December predictions. Not surprisingly quite a wide spread. I have gone for a very cold month. Worth the risk given my position in the table and it is not out of the question. 

Winter CET predictions list coming tomorrow evening.

Links to full sized tables

DEC CET PREDICTIONS - TABLE 1

DEC CET PREDICTIONS - TABLE 2

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Jonesy  
#11 Posted : 05 December 2017 08:39:47(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,027
Man
Location: Medway

I went and blooming forgot to enter 

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#12 Posted : 05 December 2017 11:22:16(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here is the list of the December predictions. Not surprisingly quite a wide spread. I have gone for a very cold month. Worth the risk given my position in the table and it is not out of the question. 

Winter CET predictions list coming tomorrow evening.

Links to full sized tables

DEC CET PREDICTIONS - TABLE 1

DEC CET PREDICTIONS - TABLE 2

Cheers Simon. Thanks.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#13 Posted : 05 December 2017 12:47:46(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank you GW for the December chart.... 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 05 December 2017 12:51:54(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met  Office  Hadley           5.2c.         Anomaly        0.1c.

Metcheck                          5.50c.       Anomaly        0.5c.

Netweather                       5.64c.       Anomaly        0.55c.

Peasedown   St  John      5.9c.         Anomaly        0.5c.        

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#15 Posted : 05 December 2017 22:35:38(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Here are the winter CET predictions that I received

Link to full size table WINTER 2017/18 CET PREDICTIONS TABLE

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#16 Posted : 06 December 2017 12:44:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met  Office  Hadley               5.8c.       Anomaly       0.6c.

Metcheck                              5.95c.     Anomaly        0.95c.

Netweather                           6.06c.     Anomaly        0.97c.

Peasedown  St  John           6.2c.       Anomaly       0.2c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Grandad  
#17 Posted : 06 December 2017 15:30:16(UTC)
Grandad

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC)
Posts: 2,153
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Central Solihull

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Here are the winter CET predictions that I received

Link to full size table WINTER 2017/18 CET PREDICTIONS TABLE

Yikes..

I am the highest - new experience for me!!!

Grandad 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Grandad  
#18 Posted : 06 December 2017 15:31:18(UTC)
Grandad

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC)
Posts: 2,153
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Central Solihull

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

I went and blooming forgot to enter 

 Would you like mine?

laughing

 Grandad

Online Caz  
#19 Posted : 06 December 2017 16:14:12(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,200
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Thank you GW!  

Crikey!  You have gone low haven’t you. Well the charts do keep threatening us with cold so you could have bet correctly and I wouldn’t mind it being that low if we get snow as well.  Good luck!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#20 Posted : 06 December 2017 20:11:26(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,846
Man
Location: West Hants

Surprised to be right a the lower-end, perhaps many assuming a typical La Nina response this month? That could yet happen of course so there's still a fair bit of room for us chilly-punters to end up with egg on our faces.

I was actually fearing I'd not been bold enough, but looking at the relative positions, it seems that won't matter if it does turn out to be the case. Similar situation to Dec 2010, except back then I had this thing called a run of good fortune going on .

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

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