Could post it daily along with some others... Just out of interest. 

As for the CET, who would have thought at the beginning of the month that it might end up average?  Well actually, that’s the typical English weather for you, so it shouldn’t be a surprise at all!  

It looks like Lanky is odds on favourite for this year's overall winner then. It'd take quite a big upset to change that now.

Met office Hadley               4.6c.     Anomaly       -0.2c. Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                            4.49c    Anomaly       -0.51c

Netweather                         4.96c.   Anomaly       -0.15c

Cheadle Hulme Weather     4.8c       Difference from 2016   -2.3c.;

Clevedon  Weather             6.7c.      Difference   "      "       -0.5c

Mount Sorrel Leicester        4.8c          "             "      "       -1,4c

Peasedown St John          5.4c.            "             "      "       -1.0c

It concerns me that this pattern of a strong high over Europe for mid-late Dec does not fit with any La Nina or even La Nina-ish winter analogues, which are generally unsettled but mostly chilly to at times cold with the jet stream aligned on a NW-SE axis i.e. like we had earlier in the month.

Something has diverted things away from what ought to have been based on historical cases. There have been quite a few months doing this in the past couple of years, particularly those of last winter.

The one climatic element that has deviated in a big way from all previously observed cases during this time has been Arctic sea ice area (also extent to a lesser, ahem, extent, but it's the intermittent state of large areas of ice even in late autumn that stands out).

This appears to be modifying the climatic response to forcing from locations such as the Pacific in new and therefore unpredictable ways. This looks to be related to the weakened and more disorganised state to the polar vortex, which has had a habit of aligning in ways that promote Euro Highs and U.S. troughs. I guess I should have seen that coming, but I did not want to believe it was really happening - I dared to hold out hope and, well, it hasn't fared well.

The return of colder temps for a time next week does at least show some resilience of the La Nina forcing against this new influence. 

Funny thing is, the potential exists in the next few winters to experience a winter on a par with some of the most severe of the past century or so, but only if non-Arctic forcing can sufficiently adjust the alignment of a weakened and stretched vortex away from what the Arctic setup seems to favour.

Yes, this is steeped in speculation, but it has roots in scientific analysis which means it probably counts for something.

Probably 

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays everyone (delete as appropriate) 

Oooh!  Could you do one that’s near my locality too?   

As for the CET, who would have thought at the beginning of the month that it might end up average?  Well actually, that’s the typical English weather for you, so it shouldn’t be a surprise at all!  

Mansfield Woodhouse (1MANSFIE5)   Weather Underground     4.5c.   Anomaly   -1.4c.   Compared to 2016  

Visitors gone can post now.....

Met Office Hadley             4.8c.      Anomaly     -0.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                          4.63c.     Anomaly     -0.37c.

Netweather                       5.12c.     Anomaly      0.03c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather     4.9c.     Anomaly      -2.2c.  Compared to 2016

Clevedon Weather              6.8c.    Anomaly      -0.5c.            "

Marples Hill Weather(Mansfield)  4.5c.  Anomaly   -1.4c.          "

Mount Sorrel   Leicester      4.9c.    Anomaly      -1.3c,            "

Peasedown St John          5.5c.    Anomaly      -0.9c.                 

Currently the CET for Christmas Day is looking likely to be the highest figure of the month at 9.7C. This would also beat the 9.5C recorded last Christmas and make it the 3rd warmest CET ever recorded on Christmas Day. The only years that were higher are 1983 and 1824 both of which recorded 10.4C.

The overall CET for December is now estimated to finish at 4.64C which is exactly in line with the 1981-2010 mean but 0.4C below the 1971-2000 mean. 

My CET estimate is now running 0.45C below Hadley. As at 23 Dec my figure is 4.33C compared to Hadley's 4.78C.

Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. 

Currently the CET for Christmas Day is looking likely to be the highest figure of the month at 9.7C. This would also beat the 9.5C recorded last Christmas and make it the 3rd warmest CET ever recorded on Christmas Day. The only years that were higher are 1983 and 1824 both of which recorded 10.4C.

The overall CET for December is now estimated to finish at 4.64C which is exactly in line with the 1981-2010 mean but 0.4C below the 1971-2000 mean. 

My CET estimate is now running 0.45C below Hadley. As at 23 Dec my figure is 4.33C compared to Hadley's 4.78C.

Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. 

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Thanks Simon and a very merry Xmas to you. Thanks for your excellent contributions to the forum.

I have to say this winter is strange with the intense temperature fluctuations. What? the third warmest Xmas day on record.

Met Office Hadley           5.0c.        Anomaly          0.1c.    Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        4.82c.      Anomaly          -0.18c

Netweather                     5.3c.        Anomaly           0.21

Cheadle Hulme Weather  5.1c.        Anomaly           -2.1c

Clevedon Weather          7.0c.        Anomaly            -0.3c

Marples Hill Mansfield Wood House 4.9c. Anomaly -1.0c

Mount Sorrel Leicester 5.1c   Anomaly  -1.1c.

Peasedown St John      5.6c.  Anomaly  -1.1c..

Met Office Hadley           5.0c.        Anomaly          0.1c.    Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        4.82c.      Anomaly          -0.18c

Netweather                     5.3c.        Anomaly           0.21

Cheadle Hulme Weather  5.1c.        Anomaly           -2.1c

Clevedon Weather          7.0c.        Anomaly            -0.3c

Marples Hill Mansfield Wood House 4.9c. Anomaly -1.0c

Mount Sorrel Leicester 5.1c   Anomaly  -1.1c.

Peasedown St John      5.6c.  Anomaly  -1.1c..

Met Office Hadley              5.2c.      Anomaly    0.4c.   provisional to26th.

Metcheck                           4.87c     Anomaly    -0.12

Netweather                        5.46c     Anomaly     0.37c

Cheadle Hulme Weather      5.3c.     Anomaly     -1.8c Compared to 2016

Clevedon Weather               7.3c.    Anomaly     -0.3c           "

Marples Hill Mansfield          4.7c.    Anomaly     -1.2c           "

Mount Sorrel Leicester         5.3c     Anomaly    -0.9c            " 

Peasedown St John              5.8c.   Anomaly     -0.6c            "

So my calculation of the mean CET for Christmas Day is 9.63C. So warmer than the 9.5C last year. This is largely due to the very high minimums. The maximum temperatures yesterday were not exceptionally high.

Stonyhurst was the warmest CET station yesterday with a mean CET of 10.4C. Rothamsted was the coldest with 8.7C.

It looks like Lanky is odds on favourite for this year's overall winner then. It'd take quite a big upset to change that now.

Well if you bet on that you have lost your money. The position has switched significantly due to the cold spell over the next few days. Actually the position on who wins is very sensitive to the final CET this month, given that lanky and Snowshoe predicted very different CET figures (5.2C and 4.2C) and the actual CET will definitely finish somewhere between the two. At the current time Snowshoe is odds on to be our winner but things could still change.

My current CET estimate for December stands at 4.60C.

Met Office Hadley         5.2c.         Anomaly        0.4c.    Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                      4.82c.       Anomaly        -0.18c

Netweather                   5.43c.       Anomaly         0.34c

Cheadle Hulme Weather   5.2c.       Anomaly        -1.9c.  Compared with 2016

Clevedon Weather          6.9c.        Anomaly        -0.4c            "

Marples Hill (Mansfied)     4.6c.       Anomaly        -1.3c.           "

Peasedown St John         4.9c.       Anomaly        -0.7c.           " 

Met  Office Hadley            5.1c.         Anomaly       0.3c.  Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                          4,68c.       Anomaly        -0.31c

Netweather                       5.32c.       Anomaly         0.23c

Cheadle Hulme  Weather   5.1c.         Anomly          -2.0c

Clevedon Weather            6.8c.         Anomaly       -0.5c

Marples Hill (Mansfield)     4.5c.        Anomaly       -1.4c

Peasedown St John        4.8c.        Anomaly       -1.4c.

Thanks for the updates Art; temperature starting to slip again now, for a day or two, but I can't see my 4.2 landing on the button!

Thanks for the updates Art; temperature starting to slip again now, for a day or two, but I can't see my 4.2 landing on the button!

No doubt there will be the usual adjustment but even with that and lower temps till the month end, I don’t think it will fall quite enough for us!  

Never mind!  It’s all good fun!  

Met Office Hadley            5.0c.          Anomaly         0.3.  Provisional to 28th

Metcheck                         4.57c.        Anomaly         -0.42c.

Netweather                      5.19c.        Anomaly          0.1c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather   5.0c           Difference      -2.1c  Compared to 2016

Clevedon Weather           6.7c.           Difference     -0.6c.           "

Marples Hill (Mansfield)    4.3c.          Difference      -1.5c.           "

Peasedown St John          5.4c.          Difference      -1.0c.           "