Met Office Hadley            5.0c.          Anomaly         0.3.  Provisional to 28th

Metcheck                         4.57c.        Anomaly         -0.42c.

Netweather                      5.19c.        Anomaly          0.1c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather   5.0c           Difference      -2.1c  Compared to 2016

Clevedon Weather           6.7c.           Difference     -0.6c.           "

Marples Hill (Mansfield)    4.3c.          Difference      -1.5c.           "

Peasedown St John          5.4c.          Difference      -1.0c.           "             

Great fun comparing the places- Clevedon sig. warmer- is that a coastal station?

Here are the raw mean figures for the three individual CET stations to the 28th:

Stonyhurst 4.37C

Rothamsted 4.43C

Pershore College 4.96C

Shows that places in the south east portion of the CET area have been as cold as those in the north-west quadrant. 

Also interesting to look at a station that is close to the middle of the CET area such as Coleshill, just east of Birmingham. This station has a mean temperature of 4.8C so far this month.

 

Great fun comparing the places- Clevedon sig. warmer- is that a coastal station?

Yes it is a coastal site on the Bristol Channel, just west of Bristol.

If you want to get a sense of the mean temperatures across the different parts of the UK for the current month, the best place to go is Roger Brugge's site. This link will always take you to the current month:

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

My latest CET estimate for the whole of December is 4.65C. So looking good for rickm at the moment.

Met Office Hadley             5.0c.         Anomaly        0.3c. Provisional to 29th

Metcheck                          4.62c        Anomaly        -0.38c

Netweather                       5.15c        Anomaly        0.06c

Cheadle Hulme Weather    4.9c          Difference      -2.2c   Compared to 2016

Clevedon Weather            6.8c          Difference      -0.5c            "

Canvey Island Essex         5.6c.         Difference      -1.3c            "

Marples Hill Mansfield       4.5c           Difference     -1.4c            "

Peasedown St John          5.3c.          Difference     -1.1c.           "

Met Office Hadley             5.0c           Anomaly       0.4c  Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                          4.80c.        Anomaly       -0.19c

Netweather                       5.29c.        Anomaly       0.2c

Canvey Island                  5.6c.          Difference      0.2c.   Compared to 2016

Cheadle Hulme Weather    5.0c.          Difference     -2.1c           "

Clevedon Weather             7.0c.          Difference    -0.3c            "

Mount Sorrel Leicester       4.6c.          Difference    -1.3c.

Peasedown St John         5.5c            Difference    -0.9c     

Finishing about a degree out is boringly average, I suppose. Interesting to see after adjustments how far out I end up.

Happy New Year all

My final CET estimate for December is 4.71C. Lets see how close that is to the official figure. Should know in about half an hour.

Not sure where Art is getting his Met Office Hadley figure from. Per the website the provisional figure to the 30th is actually 5.04C not 5.4C.

Official Hadley CET for December is 4.75C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2017

Darren S, NeilM, Roonie, Windy Willow and Wobbly-Monk were all 0.05C out. Well done to all of them.

Official Hadley CET for December is 4.75C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2017

 

So despite copious northerlies we end up with the first month of winter warmer than the 1981-2010 LTA.

TY GW!

Only time I been so close this year!

Well done everyone!

Happy New Year all

My final CET estimate for December is 4.71C. Lets see how close that is to the official figure. Should know in about half an hour.

Not sure where Art is getting his Met Office Hadley figure from. Per the website the provisional figure to the 30th is actually 5.04C not 5.4C.

Now edited.... 

Here are the charts for December. As expected, all the ups and downs temperature wise during the month ending up cancelling each other out. We ended up just fractionally above the 1981-2010 mean, but below the 1971-2000 mean.

Links to full size charts

https://i.imgur.com/jfhYcbN.png

https://i.imgur.com/2T0Hz4m.png

https://i.imgur.com/upJMeei.png

Here are my final calculation tables for December

Links to full size tables

https://i.imgur.com/XupAX4c.png

https://i.imgur.com/G4NTxYd.png

2017 CET annual competition - final position

So here we are at the end of another competition. Thank you to everyone who took part in 2017. All are welcome, including newcomers, to take part in 2018. You have until midnight tomorrow night to send me a PM with your prediction for January 2018.

Only two people finished with a prediction error under 10C. No change in the top two from last month. Shoeshoe held on to be the winner, but only just with lanky finishing in second place. Wobbly-Monk rounds out the top three. Congratulations to Shoeshoe. It is no mean feat to win this competition.

A few other honourable mentions. sussex snow magnet dropped one place to finish fourth but remarkably was never outside the top 5 at any point in the year. That is very impressive.

Darren S had a strong finish to the year, as he often does, and finished in fifth place, a rise of six places. Darren has a remarkable record in this competition. Here are his finishing positions since he first entered the competition in 2010. Only once has he finished outside the top 13.

2010 - 13th, 2011 - 4th, 2012 - 10th, 2013 - 49th, 2014 - 1st, 2015 - 4th, 2016 - 11th, 2017 - 5th 

We lost our good friend Dougie this year. He was a big supporter of this competition and never missed a single entry since I started running it in 2009.

Finally moomin75 managed to scrape himself off the bottom of the table this month, thereby avoiding the wooden spoon which instead goes to ozone_auora.

Good luck to everyone in 2018.

Here is the final table

Direct link to full size version https://i.imgur.com/yv3oRK1.png

This table shows everyone's positions for each month of the year

Direct link https://i.imgur.com/9G8dbm1.png

This table shows the prediction errors for each month. Cells highlighted in blue represent a missed prediction where I have calculated the prediction error as per the rules of the competition. Cells in yellow show an error of less than 0.5C in a month where the CET was within 1C of the 1981-2010 mean. Cells in orange show an error of less than 0.5C in a month where the CET was more than 1C higher or lower than the 1981-2010 mean.

Direct link https://i.imgur.com/yEw1kIQ.png

Great work GW!  Congratulations to Snowshoe for the 2017 title!  Hard fought and well done to all participants.

Thanks for all the work you do, GW - brilliant stats that you provide.

Congrats to Snowshoe, along with all the others that managed to be contenders at some point or other! 

You put an awful lot of work into this GW and it really is very much appreciated. Thank you!

Well done to everyone who took part in this competition, especially the winners and those mentioned with remarkable track records!  I’m not a bit envious!    

Happy New Year and good luck in the 2018 comp! 

I was just thinking it would be nice if we could recognise the winner by awarding a medal/trophy that could be worn/displayed in the avatar window.  Any thoughts?